Turf Racing

[1retired]

I live in Naples, FL:and Gulfstream is my go to home track. IN january thru April this year they carded over 100 turf races at each of the following distances, 1 mile, 1 116 mile and 5 furloings. If you count the whole year there are also over 100 7About 7.5 furlopng races. I model the winners in terms of EPS for winners and lengths behind at the 1st and 2nd call. It would be good to have the modeling profile of the winners in terms of RDSS factors. Can I assumre that all winners were in the top five in terms of VDC, CSR, \and the two BRIS ratoings, PL and ?. What other factors must winners also have a high rank for? I saw a post my Bill Varone in which he talked about which factors he looks for in turf winners. Does anybody elose or can anybody else provide some info in this area? For payback, I'd be happy to provide any responders with the EPS and length behind stats for Gulfstream for this year to date for turf races.

Sorry about the message typos. Right now my computer does not allow me to use the backspace to correct these mistakes.


1 retired ksi

[Mitch44]

1retired:

"Can I assumre that all winners were in the top five in terms of VDC, CSR, \and the two BRIS ratoings, PL and ?"

No you can't, nothing gets 100%. VDC is only effective as you are in selecting of pace lines. CSR is effective as you determine it, because you can accept it or toss a line. Prime and Profit can't be adjusted and are about as close to perfect as you'll get if you have the correct top 5 contenders.

"What other factors must winners also have a high rank for?"
BLBL is another.

"Does anybody elose or can anybody else provide some info in this area?
I would suggest you use the same top factors for turf races. They apply to all surfaces and distances.

Mitch44

[OhNoItsDoug]

I love playing Gulfstream, however it has been a while since I have played Gulfstream.
What I have found (I usually use the best of last 3 comparable with the preceptor, but will on some occasions choose a different line), the top 3 DCL, top 3 Fraction 3, and top 3 L/EP horses for win contenders in turf races at Gulfstream.

[Mitch44]

I would advise you to steer clear of 7.5 F races at GP. The timing of those races are distorted very badly because of run up distances.(where the timing begins) Even on the same day they can be as much as 200 feet difference.

As an example at 200 feet horses can get up to full speed when the timing begins, they appear much faster than they actually are on final time and a SR. Another on the same day may only have a run up of 10 feet, their final time will look slow and inferior while really can be faster and a better more classier race. This really plays hell with Pace Handicappers as it makes for inaccurate timing of the segments and FR's.

When I say avoid I'm talking about using products other than RDSS.

Within RDSS it uses TRackMaster products for its information and they account for run up distances at all tracks and all distances. They are the only service that does account for run up distances that I'm aware of. Therefore within the RDSS programs that distortion is eliminated, and you can safely use a 7.5 F line or do a 7.5 race on the turf.

Turf races at GP tend to play havoc with punters and their capital.
Mitch44

[1retired]

Thanks Guys
Appreciate your answers. I read all of the f/u's from about 60 thru 88. What they tell me is that the game has changed dramatically. I wa

s only into the Metghodology insofaro ias Tom Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping ie. EP, SP And AP. I have it set up on my computer. From reading f/u's, this is all no longer valid, it will only get you chalk winners.

Noiwm it apeears to me that the game is all about the top readouts in BL?/BL and VDC with some attention to Totoal Energey and the Primary and Secondary Corollaries. You have to hide horses who are less than 4/1 (my minimum) and only bet horses who are in the top 3 with regard to BL/BL and VDC. Sometimes you can use horses that are in the 4th tier if they are supported by the Colollaries. rrThe emphasis isc on wagercapping and not handicapping. Please correct any mistakes that I have made in this new thinking, ]


sb
There's also no sense in doing track profiles because they are from result charts and not your own handicapping. Even ESP has changed.

Sorry for the disjointed email. I can't use the backspace key to delete from my computeron this computer.

1retireed

[Mitch44]

Yes 1retired the game has changed. It has also changed since Sartin recommended wager capping as a technique. If alive today I'm sure he would have adapted to other changes in racing and abandoned wager capping.

In racing today there are many more tracks competing for horses along with a big decline in foaling rates. Hence smaller fields and lower prices. Back then a favorite won a traditional rate of 33%. Today they win around 40%.

Why would anyone automatically give up 40% going into a race? That's a killer to your to your bottom line and profits. At a seminar in Baltimore an attendee asked Tom Brohamer; "Who can beat the favorite? Tom asked him: "Who's the best horse in the race? He replied; "The favorite?" and Tom replied; "Then why are you trying to beat it?"

Favorites need to be evaluated and placed in context. If their the best horse there are other ways to make money off such a horse. Such as a DD, EX or even making a single horse bet rather than a two horse bet.

Sartin was forever adapting and overcoming to make a better mouse trap. There is no doubt in my mind he would have casted aside wagering capping and threw it in the pile with ESP, Models and track profiles just to name a few.

Its not what you do in anyone race but what you do over time that determines success. And giving up 40 % winners going into a race is not a successful winning formula, or any other preconceived notion. Forget about it.

Mitch44

[Lt1]

I also had a similar Brohamer moment at Sar in1990. Being a newbie[1t yr] I and several others approached Tom with our ideas to beat an odds on favorite. Tom smiled and said guys the fav was solid and the next race will be in 20 mins. Lesson learned. As far as models and track profiles I differ with my good friend Mitch. True Doc did downplay profiles, however, I have kept and still do models and find them very effective. As for profiles I hadn't been paying that much attention to them until recently. After finding 300 horses that fell outside the 2nd call parameters for the tracks I play and seeing only10 won I've gone back to using them. In my opinion if you are not winning on a consistent basis you might consider employing both a model and profile until you become proficient enough to discard them.
Tim