Maiden information - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 09-11-2008, 07:55 PM

I am looking for any and all information about handicapping maidens (the horse type guys!). I haved started a study of maiden races and would appreciate any references of any kind on the subject of maiden handicapping. I haven't had much luck in finding material on the subject in my own handicapping library.

Thanks for anything you can contribute.

Bill Lyster

JIGSAW · 09-12-2008, 12:20 AM

I have a suggestion. There are programs with trainer angle stats. I think they use 40 different trainer angles. I believe formulator and equisims that I know of have them. It gives you the win % for these stats by giving you the best angle with the highest trainer win % for that angle.

Example mdsw dropping into maiden 27%

Example fts 30%

Example all weather to dirt 22%

This lets you compare the horses even if they show no information.

Good Luck with your research. Jigsaw

Bill V. · 09-12-2008, 05:45 AM

I did a google search, I used the google search box on Pace and Cap

It looks like the better overall handicapping books
all have Maiden and two year old sections

I hope you find happy reading
and success

Bill

Rverge · 09-12-2008, 05:09 PM

bill, i use TM's stats. i use roi% for sires first asking, dirt sprint, route, turf sp rt turf stats, then i look at trainers same listings. check out my post 9-11 selections on how i missed the 8 at bel yesterday. i outsmarted myself.
BUT many time the roi coloumn works for me.
Rverge aka MLcookie

alydar_ David · 09-13-2008, 01:38 PM

Hello Bill,

Here are some thoughts.

Sir James (Quinn) said to bet the fastest horse in two year old races. By fastest horse he meant the horse that has run the fastest in the past.

The Sheets logic is to look for explosive two year olds – ones that are about to run their fastest. For filles that means a horse who has had two races, the second a little slower than the first. For males, that means a horse who has had two races, the second a little faster than the first. There are other patterns, but those are the two biggies. Note, in neither case do you want a horse who ran much better the second time out.

Dick Mitchell said to look for the horse that is going to have the lead at the second call. “Maidens don’t pass each other.” While that’s not entirely true, it’s good enough to rate flaming generalization status.

I don’t recall which Quinn or Mitchell books those concepts came from.

Turbulator · 09-13-2008, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alydar_David

The Sheets logic is to look for explosive two year olds – ones that are about to run their fastest. For filles that means a horse who has had two races, the second a little slower than the first. For males, that means a horse who has had two races, the second a little faster than the first.

I've never heard that, and I'm having a little trouble understanding why there would be a difference in the second race definition between males and females.

Is it based on years of data, or just what exactly?

Thanks,

Steve

Rverge · 09-13-2008, 05:31 PM

some logic is for the females is 2nd lasik as to 1st time as the fillies are timid and when they hit the point the 2nd time breathing is no problem.
hey tobby callet told me this one!
MLcookie

alydar_ David · 09-13-2008, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulator

I've never heard that, and I'm having a little trouble understanding why there would be a difference in the second race definition between males and females.

Is it based on years of data, or just what exactly?

Thanks,

Steve

Steve, I don't have the sample size handy, but I'm sure it was statistically significant. I got it straight from Len Ragozin.

Why the difference? I have no idea. Any answer I gave would be purely speculative.

For fillies, those that than ran up to "0-two" worse in their second start moved forward 75% of the time.

For colts, those that ran up to "0-two" better in their second start moved forward 65% of the time.

I won't list any more than that as it may be protected material. It might be in his book; I haven't read it so I can't say for sure.

This was for turf and dirt. None of the horses were on lasix. The average forward move for both sexes was "Three and a half points" (on the Sheet scale).

09-11-2008, 07:55 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Maiden information I am looking for any and all information about handicapping maidens (the horse type guys!). I haved started a study of maiden races and would appreciate any references of any kind on the subject of maiden handicapping. I haven't had much luck in finding material on the subject in my own handicapping library. Thanks for anything you can contribute. Bill Lyster

09-12-2008, 12:20 AM	#2
JIGSAW AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28	Maiden Information I have a suggestion. There are programs with trainer angle stats. I think they use 40 different trainer angles. I believe formulator and equisims that I know of have them. It gives you the win % for these stats by giving you the best angle with the highest trainer win % for that angle. Example mdsw dropping into maiden 27% Example fts 30% Example all weather to dirt 22% This lets you compare the horses even if they show no information. Good Luck with your research. Jigsaw

09-12-2008, 05:45 AM	#3
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Bill I did a google search, I used the google search box on Pace and Cap It looks like the better overall handicapping books all have Maiden and two year old sections I hope you find happy reading and success Bill

09-12-2008, 05:09 PM	#4
Rverge Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA. Posts: 2,531	bill, i use TM's stats. i use roi% for sires first asking, dirt sprint, route, turf sp rt turf stats, then i look at trainers same listings. check out my post 9-11 selections on how i missed the 8 at bel yesterday. i outsmarted myself. BUT many time the roi coloumn works for me. Rverge aka MLcookie __________________ i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others.

09-13-2008, 05:31 PM	#7
Rverge Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA. Posts: 2,531	some logic is for the females is 2nd lasik as to 1st time as the fillies are timid and when they hit the point the 2nd time breathing is no problem. hey tobby callet told me this one! MLcookie __________________ i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others.

09-13-2008, 01:38 PM	#5
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Hello Bill, Here are some thoughts. Sir James (Quinn) said to bet the fastest horse in two year old races. By fastest horse he meant the horse that has run the fastest in the past. The Sheets logic is to look for explosive two year olds – ones that are about to run their fastest. For filles that means a horse who has had two races, the second a little slower than the first. For males, that means a horse who has had two races, the second a little faster than the first. There are other patterns, but those are the two biggies. Note, in neither case do you want a horse who ran much better the second time out. Dick Mitchell said to look for the horse that is going to have the lead at the second call. “Maidens don’t pass each other.” While that’s not entirely true, it’s good enough to rate flaming generalization status. I don’t recall which Quinn or Mitchell books those concepts came from.