Jim's 5 Step Approach in Action

[cprescigno]

Jim, Richie,

Maybe I'm missing something. I probably am. In the Match Up action doc.

Irving’s Doers - Slow
No Parole - Came from the Chilly Roo Tandem, but there are better Sustained horses in the race.
Chestertown - Shows little in his last two turf tries and is to slow to win today.
Dynergy - Dirt races are slower than today’s pace. Look at the Wellgiven Tandem for confirmation.

I can't find a Chilly Roo Tandem or a Wellgiven Tandem. Where am I not looking?

Charlie

[Ted Craven]

The 'Chilly Roo' tandem is 28Apr06 4AQU (won by Chilly Rooster, not in today's race), but Dave, No Parole, Retribution return today.

The 'Wellgiven' Tandem was 25Jan06 8AQU (won by Wellgiven) with Charimount and Dynergy (who was scratched today).

The PDF version of the race I originally created for display here did not show the 'company' line which makes it much easier to spot Tandems. I didn't appreciate that that would be an integral part of Jim's steps (though now I remember all those old seminar tutorials!). Here is a link to the race again, scratching Dynergy and this time showing the 'company' lines for easier identification of the Tandems www.ArtofPace.com/races/BEL0514-8.pdf.

Ted

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by cprescigno

Everyone, Richie, Jim

Sorry to be a ball breaker but I'm going through this 5 step document a line at a time and found a couple of corrections necessary.
The first is here.

There are quite a few Tandems in the race. You may mark them all, but I will mark the main Tandems, which are:

1. FOREVERNESS - Today’s distance at Aqueduct
2. RETRIBUTIO - One Mile at Aqueduct
3. CHILLY ROO - One Mile at Aqueduct
4. DAVE - Today’s Distance at Saratoga

THERE IS NO HORSE CHILLY ROO IN THIS RACE

The paceline for Retribution, four lines back in the PDF with the PP's I have the following times.
47 110.3 135.2 147.4
I don't see the 23.2 time on the PP that is in the 5 step document. Where did that come from?

I'm not trying to nit pick but like I said, I am really going through this and some of the errors had me confused for a while. That's really not a hard thing to do.

I was more confused when I looked at the orignial pacelines in VAL3 and then in Spec and even though they use the same trackmaster data file the original pacelines didn't agree with each other for 1st Call, 2nd Call and Final.
I'll post that one up on another section of the site.

Charlie

Hi Charlie,

ok about seeing a 23.2 first quarter for that 9f race. Jim happened to show me this earlier so I can explain it. he likes to really gauge horses from the very start of the race. He wanted to see a quarter time for the race so what he does is pick a quarter time from a horse's other race he thinks is comparable to what it might have done in the race. That 23.2 was taken from the 3rd race back Charlie. If you look that 1/2 times are almost identical so Jim just grabbed that quarter time.

hope this helps
Rich

[RichieP]

Here is the PDF file of the race showing the company lines over on the right where you can see the Tandems Jim refers to.

Apologize for the delay. Ted and myself were having problems getting this up here.

Rich

[THE HAT]

Charlie,
Ritchie and Ted answered your question, but I will elaborate.
1. Tandem races does not nee the winner in today's race.
2. The race for the projected pace was a 9 furlong race an first call is the half mile. So I fudged and used the first call from the third line.

The Hat

[Ted Craven]

Video Replay (needs Internet Explorer browser, not Firefox browser)



Ted

[turfcraft]

This seems to be a very very difficult part about the match up
let alone horseracing.When should an adj be made? Horses are changing
courses alot these days turf and dirt,Jim what would you recommend to
really feel confident about making adjs.Dirt racing seems alot easier than
turf.And now we have have polytrack wher stks horses run 46 and 1:11
times in 6f races! I have read the matchup but the adj part is always
the hard part.Thanks for any help for all of us.
Good Health

[cprescigno]

Jim,

The first PP sheet did not show the tandems. It was hard to track the document without being able to see them. The second PDF showing the tandems is a lot easier to track. I understand that the tandem winner does not have to be in today's race.

The projected pace for the race we are working is
23.2 47 110.3 135.2 147.4
The Foreverness Tandem 11/16 distance was
23.4 49 113.4 143

From that we eliminated Pa Pa Da........but if we go four back on Pa Pa same dist. we get
46.4 110.1 13.4 145.2
So why do we give more weight to the tandem race and eliminate him as a win contender?

Charlie

[THE HAT]

Ok,
I'll try to answer the two questions at the same time.
1. Adjustments are not part of the Five Step Approach. The Five Step Approach is to learn the steps of The Match Up. Most of the time the
Tandem, Matching Running Lines and Matching Today's Pace will take care
of any adjustments. Try learning the Five Step Approach, without making it more difficult.
Charlie,
Pa Pa Da was beaten 14 1/2 lengths on the 9 furlong race at Belmont, which is enough ts enough to eliminate him, besides he is a Presser and can't win the race.

[sdahl]

Jim I have a question. When determining running styles for horses, what if a horse shows 2 different styles. For example, he has 2 good races and one is a sustained style and the other shows early.
Stan