|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
General Discussion General Horse Racing Discussion |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
12-19-2016, 02:25 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tempe, Arizona
Posts: 600
|
Turf Paradise
Interesting scenario this afternoon Mountain Standard Time.
Turf Paradise is the only thoroughbred track running.
__________________
Tim Don't look back. You're not going that way. |
12-19-2016, 02:32 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tempe, Arizona
Posts: 600
|
PARX, Mahoning Valley, and Portland Meadows are all cancelled.
|
12-19-2016, 07:07 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Thornhill ON
Posts: 437
|
How was the Turf Paradice Palace
Sometimes runs to form other time runs to who is not on the Lead and that is not how I am Handicapping a race
Who fights in the race os is the winner Thanks for Reading Like shooting Craps who is the next shooter
__________________
May all wagers be Winners... |
12-19-2016, 07:35 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 154
|
Turf Paradise attendance today: 844
Turf Paradise off-track handle today: $1.7 million. |
12-20-2016, 01:12 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 154
|
|
12-20-2016, 01:19 AM | #6 | |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
|
Quote:
YOU HAVE to find fields GREATER than 7 horses and venues that populate the mutuels with enough variation to make backing that track worthwhile. Tampa Bay and Oaklawn are two winter venues that fit that bill to a "T."
__________________
Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
|
12-20-2016, 10:40 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
|
I happened to be working Turf Paradise yesterday for software testing reasons (not betting). As a counterpoint to the argument of short fields = no value, I am studying some tracks suffering from this (e.g. AQU Winter, TUP) to see if profit is none the less available.
I have been trying to 'tune up' the new Rx rating I am working on for RDSS 2.1. Following is a Summary of the 7 thoroughbred races on yesterday's card. The method is simple: automated PSS = BLT/C (Best of Last 3 Comparable) - eliminate all but Top 4 Rx. Period - no paceline changes, essentially no tinkering. This is not necessarily optimum or recommended, but it IS a test of how close Rx is coming to an automated Contender factor (i.e. independent of paceline selection). Wager decisions should be made from there. Note - that the BL/BL rank fared almost as well in this particular set of chalky short field races. The Wager Decision process in this study was also simple: Bet Top 2 Rx to Win equally. For Exacta - bet Rx ranks 1,2 over 1,2,3,4. Thus, the better the rating factor is in migrating Win and Place horses to the upper ranks, the more hits. Obviously there are valuable decisions to be made, races to be passed, etc, etc. But as shown in the screen captures, some with post-time final odds - you don't always know when the < EVEN odds favourite will win (losing money on a 2 horse win bet) and when it will come seconds or worse. Those decisions certainly should be made. OR - let 'er rip and bet it as it comes! I have seen some days at TUP and AQU Inner where the favourites or close-to dominate and pay similarly to yesterday at TUP. Food for thought when chalky short-fields are the ONLY thoroughbreds running on the whole continent! Betting Summary 7 races bet @ $4 each on 2 horses to Win (Top 2 Rx rank) = $28 bet, $33.80 returned = 21% ROI 7 races bet @ $6 on Exacta 12/1234 (Top 4 Rx ranks) = $42 bet, $64.00 returned = 52% ROI Add in generous rebates on Win and Exacta pools for a good time at least vicariously escaping northern Winter on a slow Monday ... Excel Wager Decision Form: TUP.2016.Rx.WDF.xlsx continued ... .
__________________
RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 12-20-2016 at 10:49 AM. |
12-20-2016, 10:45 AM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
|
FWIW - in January I expect to release another round of testing versions of RDSS 2.1. While some folks are currently testing it (thank you!) - I feel better about opening it up more broadly if a few of the worst error messages and Bugs get fixed first. Anyone interested, just write me privately. Let's see what's actually running today ... Ted
__________________
RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
12-20-2016, 10:56 AM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
There are tracks that, like you mentioned, seem to pour out nothing but favorites, but anticipating those days can be tricky. Before this last Los Alamitos 8 day meet an astounding number of top 3 RX horses won, but in this last go round, it seemed like one horse per day would ruin the pick 4 at 20-30 to one, with no credentials at all.
Its just an observation, but it seems to me that tracks that have state run stake races are usually days of very low paying odds, when the best state bred horses that run in open competition run down the ladder to meet their claiming class brothers and sisters. Fair Grounds, some of the Florida races, Md and even NY and California tracks come to mind. |
12-20-2016, 11:26 AM | #10 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Ties
Ted I did very well tracking RX at Del Mar Summer and Bing Crosby fall meets, The short SA fall meet and Los AL ( i passed this winter LRC meet)
I was very happy with testing RX but I missed handicapping. I am currently back to using Phase 1 and the steps from PMTR but now once I get my top 5 with ties TPR I use the RX to break ties Along with the ML and lots of record keeping, things are going well. About Turf Paradise I really should go check it out soon. I have never been there. I'm always in and out of Arizona since my company has a hub in Phoenix. One of those moments in racing I never will for get, I was still new to the methodology I just bet my two horses in some race from Turf Paradise. I hit the winner. It paid $98 for the $2 win bet I made. I'm so happy but the guy sitting in front of me turns around and says But did you have the exacta Also when we were doing the test of RDSS to send our results to Doc I also had a big winner, maybe like $40 to report, It was from Turf Paradise Bill |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Turf Racing | 1retired | Classic Sartin Programs - Support, Discussion | 19 | 08-02-2016 01:55 PM |
SA 6.5 furlong Down the Hill turf course | Bill Lyster | Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) | 34 | 06-27-2014 07:08 PM |
Turf Paradise 9th at 1-7/8 miles on turf | Bill Lyster | Matchup Discussion | 1 | 05-07-2013 12:37 PM |
Turf Paradise 11-01-11 R(4) Using Quadrater | partsnut | Classic Sartin Programs - Support, Discussion | 7 | 11-01-2011 05:16 PM |
Turf Paradise 10-31-11 R(4) Using Quadrater | partsnut | Classic Sartin Programs - Support, Discussion | 2 | 10-31-2011 06:23 PM |