Two Races A Day, Keeps the Profits Coming this way - Page 5 - Pace and Cap

Tim Y · 08-18-2016, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Latekick

Sick that another third choice contender gets there paying $37 in the second.... That's the way it goes sometimes.

THAT is why you evaluate the contenders based upon ODDS not any further handicapping idea.

Latekick · 08-18-2016, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y

THAT is why you evaluate the contenders based upon ODDS not any further handicapping idea.

Thanks

Lt1 · 08-18-2016, 08:41 PM

Hey Grant in race 2 the odds on all your horses were so good[16-1,17-1,37-1] that a 3 horse dutch bet might have been made. Fortunately I had my model to help with the betting decision. The 5 had a %med to high for win at 7f. Its weak 3f was also a concern. 2 other things that made me lean toward the 12 were improving speed ratings and improving finish positions in its last 3. I also use Bris pps so I look at the pars for the race. I find these very useful. Only the 12 had run par in all 4 areas. The 9 had 2 and the 5 only 1. That sealed the deal for me. Went 12 &9 although I noted the trainer of the 9 is 0 for 23 at the meet. Enjoy the rest of your time at the Spa.
Tim

Latekick · 08-18-2016, 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lt1

Hey Grant in race 2 the odds on all your horses were so good[16-1,17-1,37-1] that a 3 horse dutch bet might have been made. Fortunately I had my model to help with the betting decision. The 5 had a %med to high for win at 7f. Its weak 3f was also a concern. 2 other things that made me lean toward the 12 were improving speed ratings and improving finish positions in its last 3. I also use Bris pps so I look at the pars for the race. I find these very useful. Only the 12 had run par in all 4 areas. The 9 had 2 and the 5 only 1. That sealed the deal for me. Went 12 &9 although I noted the trainer of the 9 is 0 for 23 at the meet. Enjoy the rest of your time at the Spa.
Tim

Hey Tim! Glad to hear you were able to connect on the race. It's interesting you say that about the 3 horse dutch because i did make that bet with my own cash, i was, however, a bit frustrated with the fact that i had him as a contender and not a top two on here! Thats the way it goes sometimes though!

Good luck tomorrow!

Latekick · 08-19-2016, 09:54 AM

Record: 3-11
Amount wagered: $44
Amount returned: $28

Two pricy alternates in two days, things have to turn up today, RIGHT!?

Latekick · 08-19-2016, 10:15 AM

Friday August 19th

Had a great dinner with some pretty timeless guys last night. Listening to stories of Point Given, and one of the guys being face to face with Pharoah right before he won the Belmont, was pretty cool.

The two races today will be Saratoga 5th, and Saratoga 6th.

Saratoga 5th:
My first selection is going to be the horse right on top, #4 TRANSPARENT.
A very interesting horse who his first start in just under two months. If he can run back to some of his races when he was firing on all cylinders, he will be very dangerous here. There are a few question marks with this horse but to me it just looks like he may be able to beat up on this field. 7/2 ML.

My next choice is #1 DOYOUKNOWSIMETHING. This is a very straightforward race in my opinion. With the correct line selection and contender selection, the best horses should show up near the top on readouts, and i believe that this race is straightforward enough to use the top two horses with acceptable odds. My handicapping process is done through contender selection, and line selection. After that it is just a few specific things to look for on the readouts and make final selections from there. This race is clear to me. The #1 made a nice run off of a shorter layoff last out. I think he will improve again this tine out and if he runs back to his three back race he is going to be tough.

Contenders: 1-2-4
Top Two: 1-4

Saratoga 6th:
Here is a race where i think there could be some value.
My first choice is going to be #9 FIRE STARTER. I toss his race last time out on the dirt and use the line two back. That line puts him right on top. I am not concerned with the class drop. He uses his energy late, and is well ranked in both LP, TT, and HID. All good signs of a horse who will be able to dominate the field late in the race. 6/1 ML.

My next choice is #11 ELROI.
He is a horse who launches his rally from very far back, i use him here because its tough for me to make a case for using anyone else using their energy late. The #7 had a clear lead twice and gave in, ranked awful in HID for a late energy horse. The #3 always hangs in the stretch. Awfully ranked in LPR and HID. This race looks like it may just be a bunch of horses staggering own the lane and if that is the case, ELROI is my choice at 12/1 ML.

Contenders: 9-11
Top Two: 9-11

Latekick · 08-19-2016, 10:44 AM

Going to cheat a little today, amazing card with so much value.
Im adding two more races today quickly with all of this value.
Race 7: 8-5-2
Race 9: 11-5-8

Latekick · 08-19-2016, 03:47 PM

scratch in the 6th. ELROI out.
Play will now be 3-9

Lt1 · 08-19-2016, 04:05 PM

Good luck today Grant. Just got in from West Virginia so didn't get a chance to look at the card.
Tim

Latekick · 08-19-2016, 05:32 PM

Thanks Tim. Unfortunate second in the 7th at 15/1. Thats just how its been going with this. My contest play is doing well, just my spot plays here seem to be failing! Thats okay, it will even out sooner or later!
Good Luck!

08-19-2016, 10:15 AM	#46
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Friday August 19th Had a great dinner with some pretty timeless guys last night. Listening to stories of Point Given, and one of the guys being face to face with Pharoah right before he won the Belmont, was pretty cool. The two races today will be Saratoga 5th, and Saratoga 6th. Saratoga 5th: My first selection is going to be the horse right on top, #4 TRANSPARENT. A very interesting horse who his first start in just under two months. If he can run back to some of his races when he was firing on all cylinders, he will be very dangerous here. There are a few question marks with this horse but to me it just looks like he may be able to beat up on this field. 7/2 ML. My next choice is #1 DOYOUKNOWSIMETHING. This is a very straightforward race in my opinion. With the correct line selection and contender selection, the best horses should show up near the top on readouts, and i believe that this race is straightforward enough to use the top two horses with acceptable odds. My handicapping process is done through contender selection, and line selection. After that it is just a few specific things to look for on the readouts and make final selections from there. This race is clear to me. The #1 made a nice run off of a shorter layoff last out. I think he will improve again this tine out and if he runs back to his three back race he is going to be tough. Contenders: 1-2-4 Top Two: 1-4 Saratoga 6th: Here is a race where i think there could be some value. My first choice is going to be #9 FIRE STARTER. I toss his race last time out on the dirt and use the line two back. That line puts him right on top. I am not concerned with the class drop. He uses his energy late, and is well ranked in both LP, TT, and HID. All good signs of a horse who will be able to dominate the field late in the race. 6/1 ML. My next choice is #11 ELROI. He is a horse who launches his rally from very far back, i use him here because its tough for me to make a case for using anyone else using their energy late. The #7 had a clear lead twice and gave in, ranked awful in HID for a late energy horse. The #3 always hangs in the stretch. Awfully ranked in LPR and HID. This race looks like it may just be a bunch of horses staggering own the lane and if that is the case, ELROI is my choice at 12/1 ML. Contenders: 9-11 Top Two: 9-11 Attached Images

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08-18-2016, 08:41 PM	#43
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,185	Hey Grant in race 2 the odds on all your horses were so good[16-1,17-1,37-1] that a 3 horse dutch bet might have been made. Fortunately I had my model to help with the betting decision. The 5 had a %med to high for win at 7f. Its weak 3f was also a concern. 2 other things that made me lean toward the 12 were improving speed ratings and improving finish positions in its last 3. I also use Bris pps so I look at the pars for the race. I find these very useful. Only the 12 had run par in all 4 areas. The 9 had 2 and the 5 only 1. That sealed the deal for me. Went 12 &9 although I noted the trainer of the 9 is 0 for 23 at the meet. Enjoy the rest of your time at the Spa. Tim

08-19-2016, 09:54 AM	#45
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Record: 3-11 Amount wagered: $44 Amount returned: $28 Two pricy alternates in two days, things have to turn up today, RIGHT!?

08-19-2016, 10:44 AM	#47
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Going to cheat a little today, amazing card with so much value. Im adding two more races today quickly with all of this value. Race 7: 8-5-2 Race 9: 11-5-8

08-19-2016, 03:47 PM	#48
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	scratch in the 6th. ELROI out. Play will now be 3-9

08-19-2016, 04:05 PM	#49
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,185	Good luck today Grant. Just got in from West Virginia so didn't get a chance to look at the card. Tim

08-19-2016, 05:32 PM	#50
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Thanks Tim. Unfortunate second in the 7th at 15/1. Thats just how its been going with this. My contest play is doing well, just my spot plays here seem to be failing! Thats okay, it will even out sooner or later! Good Luck!