How Important is TIME? - Pace and Cap

For The Lead · 09-24-2009, 02:59 PM

Ted has written a few times that horses do NOT run as fast as they can, but rather, only as fast as they have to run. How do YOU feel about that?

In Bill V.’s thread regarding +,0,+ w/0, there was some interesting thoughts with regard to a “Sartin” program and whether or not it should “pick” pace lines rather than leaving that task to the users discretion. Do YOU think it should, with an “over ride” option?

WAIT! Read on before you answer.

Also in Bill V.’s thread, he used an interesting horse that seems to bear out the theory which Ted has advanced. I have indicating in “red” the 1/2 mile and ¾ mile times from four races that are at 8.0, 8.3. 8.5 and 9.0. These are the best four races for this horse in route races. This is a very consistent horse that runs competitive races on a regular basis and yet, the times of these races are all over the block and it DOES NOT matter, the horse remains a winner or competitive in all these races REGARDLESS of the time of the race. Here is the horse.
Name: times.jpg
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Name: times.jpg
Views: 367
Size: 121.2 KB

How many of you would “zero in” on the race 4 back just because of the time? Is this the right race to use? Does the “time” really matter? Does using the race 4 back “insure” that this horse will be the top contender or one of the top two contenders? Does using the race 4 back “slant” the race in this horses’ direction?
What do YOU think? Which line would YOU use?

gl45 · 09-24-2009, 05:14 PM

I would have select line 9...faster final time and good move from 1c to 2c.
My method makes him the top contenders using line 4 or line 9
Never have a software choose pace lines

Bill V. · 09-24-2009, 09:45 PM

hello FTL

The thing that I see is in the 4 plus races
2 at philly and 1 at Lrl and Ct. In all 4 races the horse broke out first
a good sign, then settled back and won in its preferred running pattern
Sustained

using KGEN I entered the 4 plus lines.
In 3 of the races 6Sept 6Mar and 21jan
the horse ran Sustained with Med energy of 68.04 67.55
and 66.16 In two of the races 6Mar and 6Sept
it ran the exact same 3rd fraction 33.36

The May22 race is aberrant It ran EARLY with a 71.00 Med energy
and a weak 3rd fraction 28.10

That said and by the readouts in KGEN I would use line 1 Sept6

alydar_ David · 09-24-2009, 10:46 PM

I remember one of the more colorful patrons of New York OTB saying,
"Time only counts when you're pullin' it in the joint."

09-24-2009, 02:59 PM	#1
For The Lead Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,292	How Important is TIME? Ted has written a few times that horses do NOT run as fast as they can, but rather, only as fast as they have to run. How do YOU feel about that? In Bill V.’s thread regarding +,0,+ w/0, there was some interesting thoughts with regard to a “Sartin” program and whether or not it should “pick” pace lines rather than leaving that task to the users discretion. Do YOU think it should, with an “over ride” option? WAIT! Read on before you answer. Also in Bill V.’s thread, he used an interesting horse that seems to bear out the theory which Ted has advanced. I have indicating in “red” the 1/2 mile and ¾ mile times from four races that are at 8.0, 8.3. 8.5 and 9.0. These are the best four races for this horse in route races. This is a very consistent horse that runs competitive races on a regular basis and yet, the times of these races are all over the block and it DOES NOT matter, the horse remains a winner or competitive in all these races REGARDLESS of the time of the race. Here is the horse. How many of you would “zero in” on the race 4 back just because of the time? Is this the right race to use? Does the “time” really matter? Does using the race 4 back “insure” that this horse will be the top contender or one of the top two contenders? Does using the race 4 back “slant” the race in this horses’ direction? What do YOU think? Which line would YOU use? __________________ "It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own

09-24-2009, 09:45 PM	#3
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	lines hello FTL The thing that I see is in the 4 plus races 2 at philly and 1 at Lrl and Ct. In all 4 races the horse broke out first a good sign, then settled back and won in its preferred running pattern Sustained using KGEN I entered the 4 plus lines. In 3 of the races 6Sept 6Mar and 21jan the horse ran Sustained with Med energy of 68.04 67.55 and 66.16 In two of the races 6Mar and 6Sept it ran the exact same 3rd fraction 33.36 The May22 race is aberrant It ran EARLY with a 71.00 Med energy and a weak 3rd fraction 28.10 That said and by the readouts in KGEN I would use line 1 Sept6 Attached Images Last edited by Bill V.; 09-24-2009 at 09:52 PM.

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09-24-2009, 05:14 PM	#2
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	I would have select line 9...faster final time and good move from 1c to 2c. My method makes him the top contenders using line 4 or line 9 Never have a software choose pace lines

09-24-2009, 10:46 PM	#4
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	I remember one of the more colorful patrons of New York OTB saying, "Time only counts when you're pullin' it in the joint."