Use of Perceptor

[froggy]

Maybe someone that can get into the ZONE can explain this.

I use the Perceptor screen to determine which of the pace lines is best to use and Perceptor is measuring the horse against its self.

And when I have all of the horses that I am going to use included and go to BL/BL they are sorted by line score for a final decision.

Why can't I use Preceptor to make the final decision?
The answer is Perceptor doesn't seem to work for a final decision.
My real question is why won't it work?
Isn't it measuring the horses pace lines against each other?

In this exaggerated example the first four finishers were the 1, 6, 3, 5

[froggy]

Here the winner is way down the list.

WHY?

Is it not measuring primary factors the same as BL/BL?

[admin]

Hi froggy
My guess is its because the perceptor is only rating the
primary lines score. Maybe in linear math ??? Ted help please!!
BLBL is also taking into account the total energy, supplemental
factors line score and chaos factors
Also you are using a strange distance Race
7.5 Furlongs , on the turf
I see some dirt sprints, some dirt routes and some turf routes
all that and BLBL gets the winner Ranked 2nd
I think thats pretty good


Bill

[Rxlawyer]

Froggy:

I Do Not Know The Answer - But - Something Sticks Out Like A Sore Thumb To Me. Why Does The 6 Have Such A Strong Perceptor Total Compared To The Rest Of The Horses? Is The 10 Really A Contender? Are All Of The Other Horses Really Contenders?

Rxlawyer

[froggy]

RX,

When I did the race I had it down to 5 horses, the 6,1,7,4,5.
The #5 was the favorite @ 9/5 and the #6 was the 2nd favorite @ 3/1.
I bet the 6 and 1.
Of the contenders the #6 was a long layoff horse and the lone early and he looked like he might steal the race. He broke first and lead all of the way and then the #1 hooked him in deep stretch and won buy a head.
#1 paid $25.00 to win.
The reason for the disparity with the 6 is because of his faster time (greater speed rating) and his TPR was 183.2 compared to the next closest of 179.5.
I just used the all the horses as I did to exaggerate the point that using Perceptor to make your final betting decision is not the way to go, and I still don't really know why.

Thanks for your interest and comments,

Froggy

[Ted Craven]

Froggy,

This is a good question, and a basis for a discussion about the relative usees of Perceptor compared with BL/BL.

Perceptor is a tool to measure the fine-grained factor differences or similarities between different lines. The Perceptor Total does not measure a sum of ranks, it measures a sum of differences from best in any factor. Primary Line Score is a sum of absolute ranks, with whole number differences between each rank.

Bottom Line Score is founded in the notion, espoused by Sartin, that there can often be little difference in real final time between the top 3 finishers; if you stand at the finish line when the winner crosses and close your eyes for just 1 second, likely 2 or 3 more horses will also have crossed in that short time.

Thus, BL/BL serves as a tool, employing what Doc referred to as 'Chaos Math' (and I will not argue with his choice of terms), to value the Top 3 ranks for each factor (when aggregated) more closely together than ranks less than 3rd. Sometimes this works out well, when a horse who is clearly down the ladder from best on a factor is valued almost as good as the best horse - sometimes it works out not so well, and that Perceptor gap following best on a given factor really does mean that the 'best' horse towers over the rest and BL/BL brings the others unfairly too close together.

NOT at issue here is whether the #6 was fit to run back to its previous abilities after such a long layoff and win at first asking. Dealing only with the difference between BL/BL score and Perceptor score: below I used the new Custom screen to display the actual Perceptor Line Score Total the way it shows on Speculator, so it's easy to see that the 7 Primary Factor numbers for each line add up to the total (between the Perceptor Total Difference and the Primary Line Score).

The #6 had a total of 20.2 while the #1 had a total of 38.5, a difference of 18.3, which is what its Total Difference from best (#6) was. The #6 was really only deficient in LPR and somewhat in HID (due to the poor LPR component). #1 was really deficient in LPR, also in HID, but because of its excellent F1 energy, picked up credits for EPR and FX and to a lesser extent FW. 6 other horses' relative deficiencies in the various factors ended up ranking them better than the #1 on Perceptor.

As it stands, the Perceptor ranks are somewhat distorted by the number of horses entered. The LPR figures for the non-turf lines are way distorted by the unreal values for the #10 who is a total non-contender.

Chopping things down to the top 5 as you did, still leaves the #1 worst on Perceptor, but again the Bottom Line Score 'chaos math' process narrows the gaps between the lines by more equally valuing the top 3 ranking. The #1 had enough of those, and some 4th and 5ths which also pick up points, to bring it into equality with all the rest of the horses other than the top ranked #6. At that point, you apply wagercapping, break ties using corollaries such as the #1's excellent Total Energy and it's Computed Beaten Lengths dominance at the 1st 2 calls, its counter-energy status and arrive at the wager you actually made.

My view is that Perceptor gives another tool to examine fine differences between contenders, and to identify the best lines of individual horses. The genius of BL/BL is the proposition that the top 3 ranked horses (ranked as an aggregate of the various energy interrelationships) can be closer than you think if supported by corollary evidence (e.g. V/DC, Total Energy, pace dominance and, always, current form). This process will tend to bring 'price' horses more to attention. That said, as you know, 1 case doesn't prove a concept and I don't have 100 or 200 races comparing Perceptor to BL/BL, same paceline selection/elimination methods, wager selection strategies and resulting ROIs. Anecdotally, I know many who use Perceptor much to the exclusion of BL/BL for final guidance; then again probably as many others who use BL/BL. I hope to do such a study, or report on anyone else's rigorous study.

BTW, Bottom Line Score doesn't employ Total Energy, or Supplementary Line Score other than to the extent that all Primary Factors are ultimately involved somehow in ALL measurements. These two readouts, (TE, Supp LS or components) plus V/DC, F3+Total Pace, Early/Late Difference should be employed as corollary support, used as tie breakers or as confirming evidence of a primary candidate decision.

While always checking what Perceptor says (after eliminating to about 5 horses) I too have found myself recently concentrating more on the BL/BL ordering of contenders and seeking confirmation by corollaries.

Ted

[froggy]

Wow!

What an answer.

I'm going to print this out and take it to bed and read it thoughly before going to sleep and let it seep in.

Thanks,

Froggy

[admin]

Thank you Ted

Yes I see I was wrong I need to read this a few times
as I'm a bit mixed up

GS
Bill

[Rxlawyer]

Ted:

That Was One Of The Most Eloquent And Helpful Answers I Have Ever Read. I Found The Explanation Extremely Helpful.

Gary

[froggy]

Ted,

Is Perceptor the same tool as the line selector in Validator or is the formula different?

Froggy