Pace Line Practice Pick

[Bill V.]

Thank you to everyone .. I went with line 1 for horse 7 I really appreciate your help.. I hope I dont look to foolish to the better folks here but if I
want to improve

FTL I use the term "likes" cause Im a Jersey guy .. Its Meadowlandseses
I think of our one and only Richie P. We would refer to top picks as
the one the ""machine likes: So just as calling a computer a machine
might sound odd so does KGEN likes...

I bet the 1 and the 7 with the 6 and 4 as my other two contenders

thank you to all

Bill

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Thank you to everyone .. I went with line 1 for horse 7 I really appreciate your help.. I hope I dont look to foolish to the better folks here but if I
want to improve

FTL I use the term "likes" cause Im a Jersey guy .. Its Meadowlandseses
I think of our one and only Richie P. We would refer to top picks as
the one the ""machine likes: So just as calling a computer a machine
might sound odd so does KGEN likes...

I bet the 1 and the 7 with the 6 and 4 as my other two contenders

thank you to all

Bill

No need to apologize, I'm a Jersey guy myself!!!

[JimG]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Re using mostly last lines, Jim, I do tend to start out hitting that 'last line' button and reviewing it closely, but I am cognizant that everyone else out there is doing that too, and decisions made on that basis (I imagine) will tend to produce generally lower mutuels than going back a bit further on a consistent basis.

The bankroll tells the tale ...

Ted

Ted,

LOL, the bankroll always tells the tale! I agree on going back further when doing turf races, however, for dirt and poly I think sticking with the last line in most cases is the way to go. I do this because, I want to see how strong the low odds horses are if they run back to their last race. I think getting it down to 5 using TE as I learned from Bill is a solid method. I then get the value from betting horses other than top choices in the BL/BL. When the favorite is real strong, passing is usually the order of the day. You can catch a lot of $9-$16 horses this way. Recognizing vulnerable favorites is key to solid win betting.

Vulnerable favorites:

1) Dropping 2 or more classes after being competitive at the higher class last out.

2) Doing something for the first time (stretching out, surface switch for first time, etc.)

3) Claimed last out and going to a lesser barn.

4) Negative jock switch.

5) Hard last race running withing 2 lengths of winner all the way around the track to win or lose by a length or less.

I am sure there are others, but those are some of mine.

Jim

[tom]

After seeing the graphs, line 1 and 6 are similar on both early and sustained.
Line 5 is the aberent line I mentioned earlier. For me, it would be either 1 or 6.

[alydar_ David]

Bill, thanks for your post which generated so much intelligent discourse. Your KGEN readouts sparked a lot of interest.

Tom made a valid point about not using an aberrant paceline. You want to use a paceline which is representative of how the horse typically runs.

delmarscott2004 remarked that it's wise to select a recent line within the norm of speed ratings and race class.

For The Lead made a couple of intelligent and informative posts which are typical of his writing style.

Ted made the insightful observation that declining Total Energy coupled with running consistently less early positionaly in each of a horse's last three races is not something which inspires one to take the rubber band off the old bankroll.

And JimG (the most improved player over the years I've ever seen) gave some valuable pointers about vulnerable favorites.

All in all an excellent thread.

Not to detract from the quality of this fine thread, for amusement only here are the T-Graph views of the top three finishers and the race results.