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05-06-2011, 11:27 AM | #11 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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CD race 6
Tandems
Key 8-7 Breeders cup day 2010 9.0 CD 49.1 113.8 138 150 5-9 13Nov10 CD 8.5 24.2 48.4 113 145 FPLR Horse 4 All Due Respect 24.5 46.5 109.9 136 2 2 2 1 Early -Need To lead Group Horse 9 Absinthe Minded 8.5 23.6 47.4 111.8 143.6 1 1 1 1 This will also be my projected Pace of race 23.6 47.4 111.8 143.6 Early Can Pass Horses Group w/powerlines H1 Quiet Giant 8.3 23.2 47.7 111.6 141 H2 Miss Luann E-EP Group H4 All Due Respect 8.0 24.5 46.5 109.9 136 2 2 2 1 H5 Stage Magic CD 8.5 24.2 48.4 113 145 2 2 1 1 H8 Unrivaled Belle SAR 47 110.5 134.9 148.1 2 2 2 2 Sus Group H3 Seeking The Title PRM 23.5 46.8 110.8 141.8 4 4 3 1 H6 Ravi's Song INd 23.8 47.6 111.9 143.2 6 3 2 1 H7 Blind Luck OP 23.8 47,5 111.6 142 7 7 5 2 Matching lines Out go horses 1 2 5 and 9 Race will go other than early Matching Horses 3 4 7 and 8 win bets horse 7 and 3 GSM Bill V. Carlsbad Ca. |
05-06-2011, 11:35 AM | #12 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
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Quote:
Now looking at the OTE runners I'm also including #4, who has run well against a fast pace too. Initially I saw that this one has not done well from further back than 2nd at the 1st call. However, I noticed now that it has won from 4th and 3rd at the break. #4 23.0 46.1 109.4 134.1 2-3 2-1 1-1 1-2.5 #8 23.2 46.3 110.4 142.2 1-1 1-5 1-6 These are my final two and they look closely matched. |
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05-06-2011, 12:05 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tempe, Arizona
Posts: 600
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Churchill 5/6 Race #6
I have the #9 as the early horse and the 1,4, and 8 as E/P.
Using the 9's second back as the paceline I get a 23.6 47.5 1:11.6. The 1 shows a 23.2 in a race 7 back at Delaware so given the early speed, I'm going to modify the paceline to 23.2 47.5 1:11.6. Looking at the 8 I see: 47 1:10.5 23.2 45.6 1:08.4 (granted never repeated) 23.5 46.6 1:10.8 Also a win in the breeder's cup from the 5 position at the 1st call. I'm on the 8 with what I fear is no price. Tim |
05-06-2011, 01:24 PM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: I live in Toronto, Ontario, can
Posts: 220
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CD
I like #8 in this race and my 2nd choice would be #4 emilio |
05-06-2011, 03:24 PM | #15 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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well Matchers
We all kind of ended up on the 7 or 8 and thats how it went .
Hope the Derby and The Del. race turn out with a better price. I'm sure the Derby will |
05-06-2011, 11:26 PM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 119
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Here are the results of the last 8 Ky Derby races from the stand point of when the winner first took the lead or challenged for it:
Code:
Pos Summary 1st Call 2nd Call Stretch Finish 1st Lead 0 2 5 1 Pct 0% 25% 63% 13% <1 Len 0 4 3 1 Pct 0% 50% 38% 13% Code:
1st Call 2nd Call Stretch Pos High 19 12 6 Len High 19.50 10.00 2.75 Pos Avg 9.88 4.25 1.63 Len Avg 8.59 2.70 0.34 However, by the 2nd call, the horse must have moved to within 5th place and inside of 3 lengths. The progress must continue to to within 2nd place and inside of a length at the stretch call. Charts of the winners with horses that fit the "average model" calls.
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05-07-2011, 12:59 AM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
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Delaware Race 9
Wow, lot's of early pressure to say the least! The 3 and 11 are the fastest earlies to me but the 1,2,4,6 and 8 all like to be on the lead or very close positionally.
I like the 9 horse to come from out of it. Lines 4 and 10 show power moves and close finishes against 21.4 first calls which is close to what I expect here. Let's see if he can mow 'em down late! |
05-07-2011, 09:21 AM | #18 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Del 9
Never saw a race like this
To be very honest, At this stage off my matching training, This one probably will do more harm than good to my matching ability I will have to pass this one I will watch and take notes but I am just fooling myself walking into this one Gun to my head 9 and 11 Bill V. |
05-07-2011, 09:28 AM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: I live in Toronto, Ontario, can
Posts: 220
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del
Here I like the #11. I know there is lots of speed here. I think that this race will run early. And the 11 seems to have plenty of energy. emilio |
05-07-2011, 11:11 AM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
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On to the Derby...
For this one I will look for OTE runners who can finish close against 46.1 pace set by #14. My OTE contenders are 1,3,8 and 19. |
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