"The Hat" - Next Practice Race

[Bill Lyster]

Okay,

I didnt find anything useful in any tandems.

pace of race: 23.2-47-111.2-143.2

1c from #7 L1,
2c from #7 L5;
6f from 1a, L1 &2, but a possible 111.1 from #3 line 3 (but he collapsed off that);
final time from 1a @ 143.3, L1 based on 111.2 @ 3/4, but there is support for this final time in a couple of other places;

It looks like 1a can over come the lead of probably the 3 and 7. #7's best time looks to have come off a 112.1, so if he has to go faster, he's cooked; #3 line 3 projects at about 143 by interpolation.

#8 can track 47.2 and 111.4, but this pace being a little hotter kicks out #8

#7's line from one turn Belmont is probably a few ticks faster than the 2 turn times of the 1a, so I like 3 to win, with #1a to place.

[dugoutgold]

wow, this is tuff) Eithor the 1a or the 8, 8 seems to have an edge over the 7 (the other ep) but the 1a seems to have the tactical speed (sp) at the wire.

[emilio840]

#1A EP
#2 S
#3 P
#4 SP
#5 S
#6 SP
#7 EP
#8 EP

The pace of this race should be: 23.3 47.2 111.4 143.4

There are 3 ways of seeing this race. The 1st way is looking at the fastest tandem race. Here we have #7, #4. and I could throw everything else away.When I compare the #4 and #7. I think that the #7 has the right running style to win and is also a faster horse. In their only match up the #7 did beat #4.

The second way is: #8, #1A, will take the lead and #8 should have the lead to the 2nd Call. The #7 should be running 3rd at the first call and should be moving up at the 2nd Call and should be in the lead when they hit the top of the stretch and win.

The third way is: Since the pace will be 23.3 47.2 111.4 143.4 You look at the last race of each horses and see who ran the BEST in the fastest pace. Since #7 ran the best, you compare him with all the rest of the horses that have the right running style and #7 should be the winnner.

emilio

[gl45]

The only way I could match this race:
Pace 23.3 46.4 110.1 143.2

compare #7 last line to the best lines of the field.
#7 line1 23.2 46.3 110.3 135.3 (8f)

#1 line5 23.3 47.4 112.1 136.0 (8f) OUT too slow
#2 OUT
#3 line2 23.1 46.4 112.0 144.3 (8.5F) OUT 112.0 at 2call
#4 line5 23.0 46.0 110.1 143.2 (8.5F) IN match with #7
#5 line8 23.2 46.2 111.3 145.0 (8.5F) OUT 145.0 final too slow
#6 line4 23.2 46.4 112.2 144.2 (8.5F) OUT 112.2 at 2call
#8 line5 23.3 47.2 111.4 135.2 (8F) OUT 47.2 111.4 too slow

At this point I would scratch my head and try to figure #7 or #4
Pino

[Ted Craven]

Running Styles

1a EP or P
2 S
3 P
4 P
5 P
6 P or S
7 EP
8 EP

Use #7's last line as pace of race: 23.2 46.3 1:10.3.

No one really needs the lead and 8 is slower than 7 (if in form at all), therefore 7 gets the lead, no one will pressure it, and can possibly run a bit slower, say 23.2 47 1:11, conserving energy.

#1a has never won against this pace, so probably won't today either, also since it has won it's last 3 races, it may have peaked.

#3 could be threatening, but its best line 2 was not as fast pace as #7s last; it will not seek the lead and will suck behind the 7's more relaxed pace today.

#4 was in a tandem last with #7 but certainly didn't exert itself much: can't see any threats to win.

The rest of the horses are just slower.

I don't see why #7 doesn't wire the field.

Ted

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by gl45

At this point I would scratch my head and try to figure #7 or #4
Pino

The 7 and 4 ran in tandem race ( the last race for both) Pino.

You still scratching now?

Ciao
Richie

[gl45]

Richie,
#7 beat #4 in the tandem.
A nod for the #7 to win, but I still love the #4, call it intuition.
Pino

[VoodooFan]

1. 1a) sustained presser
2. 2) Late
3. 3) Presser and Sustained
4. 4) sustained
5. 5) sustained presser
6. 6) sustained
7. 7) early presser
8. 8) early presser
9. The #8 will be forced to take the lead, being headed by #7 who never takes the lead.
10. The 24.1 out the gate will make #1a run earlier than he wants. He will be 3rd out the gate, he's out.
11. The #7 will be heading #8 thru out the race , and will pass him, but will tire pressing him.

1. The #3 will be pressing the #7 , pass him.

1. The #3 will win , with #7 and #8 in the money

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by VoodooFan

1. 1a) sustained presser
2. 2) Late
3. 3) Presser and Sustained
4. 4) sustained
5. 5) sustained presser
6. 6) sustained
7. 7) early presser
8. 8) early presser
9. The #8 will be forced to take the lead, being headed by #7 who never takes the lead.
10. The 24.1 out the gate will make #1a run earlier than he wants. He will be 3rd out the gate, he's out.
11. The #7 will be heading #8 thru out the race , and will pass him, but will tire pressing him.

1. The #3 will be pressing the #7 , pass him.

1. The #3 will win , with #7 and #8 in the money

Hi Voodoo
ok you have the race down to the 3 and 7. Now match them up one on one using FAST lines ok?

I am gonna put up those 2 horses now - match em - Note both running styles and pace of race

Here is the # 3 horse. That 3rd line back is FAST ( check the mile time)

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by VoodooFan

1. 1a) sustained presser
2. 2) Late
3. 3) Presser and Sustained
4. 4) sustained
5. 5) sustained presser
6. 6) sustained
7. 7) early presser
8. 8) early presser
9. The #8 will be forced to take the lead, being headed by #7 who never takes the lead.
10. The 24.1 out the gate will make #1a run earlier than he wants. He will be 3rd out the gate, he's out.
11. The #7 will be heading #8 thru out the race , and will pass him, but will tire pressing him.

1. The #3 will be pressing the #7 , pass him.

1. The #3 will win , with #7 and #8 in the money

ok and here is the # 7 horse's last race - thats FAST also

Hope this helps a bit Voodoo. you are right there with the contender selection man

now FOCUS on your 2 final guys - Positioning and pace of race

who is going to be ahead of the other around the track? That's who you want. This is how Jim teaches me ok?

Rich