Pilot

[pilot]

Bel R9
$50 to win 2
$50 to win 11

[pilot]

Lost, I should have bet the 11 to place.

[Bill V.]

Hello Pilot
Welcome to the contest. When I saw the ML of the 2 horse
I thought, what would the odds be for this horse if it had a different name?

Are you ever going to get good odds on this horse when it runs in NY
and with # 2



Once again the crowd bet it down to the 2/1 favorite

I remember they ran this horse on Belmont stakes day.
Lets see close to 100.000 people at Belmont in NY
and lets run a horse named Jeter
do you think the horse was overbet just a little that day ?

welcome aboard

Bill

[Ted Craven]

Wayne,

Welcome to the contest - still time for 20 races!

For your consideration, a few thoughts on this race. First, an alternate take on line selection and Win contender designation. Here are my BLBL and Original screen for the Winner #10.




First, about #2 Jeter - in my practice, I almost never make a horse a Win contender in a Turf race if I cannot rate it off a Turf race. Let it beat me by winning first time on the Turf - but that happens (to me) very rarely and I am happy to have that guideline as a Win Contender separator. So, Jeter is a Secondary Contender - it is unproven on Turf.

Second, If you use the Paceline Selection Strategy or general guideline Best of Last 3 Comparable, I believe a good case can be made to use #10's 4th line. It's last 2 lines were routes, though not too far distant from today's 7f and it ran credibly against a slower pace, so I see no problem with judging it fit. What can this horse do against a faster pace? The 4th line gives a clue, plus the horse is now 98 days more mature and seasoned. The 4th line is the Best of Last 3 Comparable.

Even if you choose to use caution and use the 3rd line instead of the 4th, #10 is ranked 3rd on BLBL behind a 16-1 and a 10-1, and is itself the 2nd favourite at 3-1. You can then make a decision as to whether it belongs as one of your Win bets (given the possibly alternate ranking using the 4th line) along with your choice of those 2 longer priced horses - which some (me) would recommend betting to Win-Place.

Just an alternate point of view! I did not play or bet this race.

Best of luck this week!

Ted

[pilot]

Thanks Bill and Ted for a great explanation of the race.

Wayne