Track to track adjustments

[kpmats10]

A few years ago, I experimented with adjusting pacelines for horses shipping from one track to another or changing circuits like from Aqueduct to Belmont. I was fairly satisfied with the results.

I have track pars from two major publications and I'd like to start adjusting pacelines again. In the past, I used the 10k par for each distance and used that as the difference. One of my publications suggests using the difference in class par. Last night, I took the average differences of the same classes at Belmont and Saratoga at three difference dirt distances and there was almost no difference in the average of all the adjustments to the class par compared to the $10k par.

I'm inclined to think that since there were no major differences between the average of class pars, using the $10k averages will be sufficient for my experiment.

Open to other suggestions.

[mowens33]

kpmats, the 10K par is the norm, so if your not seeing any significant difference I would stick with the 10K

Mike

[Peteman]

I would agree with Mike,I'd stay with the 10k as the adjustment.I have
never adjusted for track class in pace lines,but there might be exceptions.
I used to mark down where invaders were doing well from.for the first few
weeks of the meet,and if they are not showing in your ratings.Then a
positive adjustment might be needed,or the par time might be off.

If you where happy with your past work,why change your methods.
I tend to over tweak myself,my last compulsion was variants,still is.
We can spend more time in the value capping aspect of the game.

Pete

[Jeebs]

THE HAT had advocated use of these as far as track-to-track is concerned. Not sure how effective though. Note, these adjustments are for final time. I believe Brohamer attempts to come to grips with call adjustments in the MPH book.

https://www.americanturf.com/equaliz...fm?showchart=1

Also, I don't know how one could get an effective track-to-track for turf, since pace, rail settings and the various run-up distances wreck havoc on pars anyway. My line of thinking for turf would be to use Sartin's line of thinking and base adjustments on strength of field. If something seems out of line, then it probably is.

[Mark]

In the Red Match Up manual which is available in the Pace and Cap Library there is a down and dirty method for making track class and final time adjustments. I personally don't use them but I thought it was interesting. Certainly the $10,000 claiming tag was the standard for many years for developing pars and differences in track speed. But there are so few races of that type anymore that are not conditioned in some respect. Used to be that the better tracks didn't offer a race below $10,000 claiming so there were a lot of them. Today you have to deal with NW-2L, NW-3L NW-4L and conditions based on time since last win, last 2 wins and last 3 wins. So it seems to me that it is pretty tough to get averages based on any volume of races.
Aside from young improving horses, evaluating each sprint or route and comparing the running times and final times and positions should give you a pretty solid idea of what a horse can be competitive against. Their are Bull Rings and odd ball tracks that you know are either very fast or very slow and you have Poly surfaces when horses ship from dirt tracks they really improve or digress. PID had a number of these horses jump up at very nice prices over the last week.
A one-mile dirt track is just a one-mile dirt track all that can really be different is the run-up distance which can skew races fast early. Winterizing like they do at PRX can also really change a track but with RDSS2 you can see the huge variants these cause.
The biggest difference in final time is caused by the Early Pace. Study that and you will benefit tremendously.

[Jeebs]

Maybe Ted could chime in with some thoughts.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Jeebs

Maybe Ted could chime in with some thoughts.

I don't really have any thoughts about useful ways to create track class pars on my own. In my own handicapping, I have used Inter-track Variants supplied by TrackMaster for almost 20 years now in various Sartin software to equalize running times for inherent differences in track speeds when shippers meet up.

I am content to allow these ITV variants to also serve as track class adjustments as well, with perhaps a few caveats when identifying true Contenders: all other things being equal, I like my contenders to have been competitive at today's race conditions or better - so not rising unduly in calibre of competition unless they are lightly raced and improving anyway, or for other reasons that a rise in competition level is normal.

I know we're not talking about Daily Track Variants in this discussion, but since Mark mentioned it, I use only a tight range of the DTV to adjust my running times.

For me, simple observation of profitable performance over ~20 years of using TrackMaster's ITVs - along with all the handicapping analysis tools and tips of the Methodology and Matchup processes - have convinced me that life is too short to be mucking around with making and maintaining my own variants when others can do it better and at a reasonable price. Aside from my day job as software developer (RDSS), when I play 'bettor' I am only concerned about making money, not rolling my own figs.

I do understand that one should NEVER blindly accept someone else's say-so about using something not 'cooked in your own kitchen'. And so we each must decide how much weight to place on 'consumer reports' about any given product - including track class/speed adjustments made by someone else. If we did not assume such personal responsibility, we would never drive a car we did not create by hand, or buy food in a grocery store which we did not grow ourselves. Etc, etc ...

So, while creating one's own adjustments, or validating those made by others - we each should keep in mind why we are using any tool at all - for the joy of invention, or the joy of using certified pre-fab tools to get the job done (i.e. successfully bet on more races). Each may be differently important to different individuals, and while I have a bias to the latter point-of-view, I do my best to not judge those who derive pleasure from the former.

FWIW, here is a video from the RDSS FAQs by Dave Seigel President of TrackMaster on the methodology they employ to produce their Speed Ratings, Class Ratings, Daily- and Inter-Track Variants. Which are used by Sartin programs employing their data files (including RDSS).

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...9&postcount=16

Ted