Gravesend Handicap (AQU 12/21) - Pace and Cap

Appy · 12-18-2013, 11:37 PM

Race #8 6F $100K handicap for 3 and up on the inner at Aqu Saturday. It's the Equibase Race of the Week.
Strapping Groom, carrying 121, is FTL's highweight contender in a nice field.
This will be an old school form exercise for me.
Who's up for it?

Appy · 12-19-2013, 09:46 PM

Unless I'm missing a page or two of form, there are only 6 entrants. Big downside. There are no M/L on my form.

Strapping Groom and Palace were matched last out. Palace won that one. I don't see it happening again this time. I expect Strapping Groom to carry the extra 3 lbs and wire this race. He also is #1 APV by a huge margin. Palace may be in a photo for place with Broad Rule, but I think he'll get it.
4-6-3

For The Lead · 12-20-2013, 12:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Appy

Race #8 6F $100K handicap for 3 and up on the inner at Aqu Saturday. It's the Equibase Race of the Week.
Strapping Groom, carrying 121, is FTL's highweight contender in a nice field.
This will be an old school form exercise for me.
Who's up for it?

I have to make a correction. The "highweight" in a handicap race is NOT my sole contender. The TOP 3 highweights are my contenders.
Here's my thread on that subject. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9176

For The Lead · 12-20-2013, 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Appy

Unless I'm missing a page or two of form, there are only 6 entrants. Big downside. There are no M/L on my form.

Strapping Groom and Palace were matched last out. Palace won that one. I don't see it happening again this time. I expect Strapping Groom to carry the extra 3 lbs and wire this race. He also is #1 APV by a huge margin. Palace may be in a photo for place with Broad Rule, but I think he'll get it.
4-6-3

Here are the entries...with ML.

Appy · 12-20-2013, 01:03 PM

So...I take it you're on board with 4-6?

I noted the 3rd high weight, top trainer win%, 2nd high jockey win%, 4th high APV, 3rd best pace and speed figures, and the change to blinkers on for the 1. Seems to me you have to get creative with line selection and time adjustments to get this horse in for show.
With this horse I don't care for the route to sprint angle as a formula for success TODAY. I suspect it is designed to improve his next route entry.

Would love to hear how you see it Mr FTL.

PS: Great thread you linked in first post! Thanks.

Bill Lyster · 12-20-2013, 01:39 PM

WIthout Linda Rices 3 horses this race might not have filled! However, you can see last year the race went with 4 horses (Frazil-line 8). So the best that can happen is that the 2 and 5 help set up a pace that Palace can run at and which helps to neutralize Strapping Groom (note one on either side to push??). Note, however that the 5 Abra barely lost to Palace in turf sprint in July while both were entered not to be claimed in an OC 25nw1x race. Palace obviously got better. Strapping Groom inherits or pushes for lead, probably outduels Abra and awaits Palace and/or Battier. Battier, except for Will Take Charge and dedicated early burner Moreno, both higher level horses, finishes well in Pa derby. Best in this field is probably 2nd as Palace will start his run from in front of him.

I probably pass race unless there are some wonderful place odds on Battier or Abra

Segwin · 12-20-2013, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Appy

So...I take it you're on board with 4-6?

That would be my take on it Appy. Don't see enough value to play however. An Exacta would pay 6.50 lol

Lt1 · 12-21-2013, 12:10 PM

Based on my track model I will go 6 -1-4.

Bill V. · 12-21-2013, 03:09 PM

"I had it on my pick 4 ticket"

5 horse field

Name: Joker.PNG
Views: 436
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Have a Merry Christmas Joy to the world !!!!

*
A

clore1030 · 12-21-2013, 03:37 PM

My decision model is giving it to Battier but my instincts are saying not to bet as I'm counting too much on a wicked pace. Mind you, I talked myself out of the winner of yesterday's eighth, Hot Rendezvous, so who knows.

I'd have to get at least 4-1 and it seems that Andy Serling agrees with me on that. I'm likely going to pass. Were the track listed as "fast" I'd probably go for it.

12-19-2013, 09:46 PM	#2
Appy Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana Posts: 334	Unless I'm missing a page or two of form, there are only 6 entrants. Big downside. There are no M/L on my form. Strapping Groom and Palace were matched last out. Palace won that one. I don't see it happening again this time. I expect Strapping Groom to carry the extra 3 lbs and wire this race. He also is #1 APV by a huge margin. Palace may be in a photo for place with Broad Rule, but I think he'll get it. 4-6-3 __________________ Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com

12-20-2013, 01:03 PM	#5
Appy Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana Posts: 334	So...I take it you're on board with 4-6? I noted the 3rd high weight, top trainer win%, 2nd high jockey win%, 4th high APV, 3rd best pace and speed figures, and the change to blinkers on for the 1. Seems to me you have to get creative with line selection and time adjustments to get this horse in for show. With this horse I don't care for the route to sprint angle as a formula for success TODAY. I suspect it is designed to improve his next route entry. Would love to hear how you see it Mr FTL. PS: Great thread you linked in first post! Thanks. __________________ Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com Last edited by Appy; 12-20-2013 at 01:21 PM.

12-21-2013, 03:09 PM	#9
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	all "I had it on my pick 4 ticket" 5 horse field Have a Merry Christmas Joy to the world !!!! * A Last edited by Bill V.; 12-21-2013 at 03:27 PM.

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12-18-2013, 11:37 PM	#1
Appy Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana Posts: 334	Gravesend Handicap (AQU 12/21) Race #8 6F $100K handicap for 3 and up on the inner at Aqu Saturday. It's the Equibase Race of the Week. Strapping Groom, carrying 121, is FTL's highweight contender in a nice field. This will be an old school form exercise for me. Who's up for it? __________________ Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com

12-20-2013, 01:39 PM	#6
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	WIthout Linda Rices 3 horses this race might not have filled! However, you can see last year the race went with 4 horses (Frazil-line 8). So the best that can happen is that the 2 and 5 help set up a pace that Palace can run at and which helps to neutralize Strapping Groom (note one on either side to push??). Note, however that the 5 Abra barely lost to Palace in turf sprint in July while both were entered not to be claimed in an OC 25nw1x race. Palace obviously got better. Strapping Groom inherits or pushes for lead, probably outduels Abra and awaits Palace and/or Battier. Battier, except for Will Take Charge and dedicated early burner Moreno, both higher level horses, finishes well in Pa derby. Best in this field is probably 2nd as Palace will start his run from in front of him. I probably pass race unless there are some wonderful place odds on Battier or Abra

12-21-2013, 12:10 PM	#8
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	Based on my track model I will go 6 -1-4.

12-21-2013, 03:37 PM	#10
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	My decision model is giving it to Battier but my instincts are saying not to bet as I'm counting too much on a wicked pace. Mind you, I talked myself out of the winner of yesterday's eighth, Hot Rendezvous, so who knows. I'd have to get at least 4-1 and it seems that Andy Serling agrees with me on that. I'm likely going to pass. Were the track listed as "fast" I'd probably go for it.