This was the best change I made in 2023 with my handicapping - Pace and Cap

OhNoItsDoug · 12-31-2023, 11:06 AM

Over the summer I made a change that was hands down the most profitable change I have ever made. I did not change my handicapping at all. All I did was when I finish handicapping a race, I assign it a confidence number. Basically, how much confidence do I have in my handicapping & understanding of the race.

I use a 5 star rating. 1 being I have no clue what is happening in this race, and 5 being a prime bet. I don’t wager on any race below a 3. Most of my handicapped races end up between 2-4. I haven’t had a 1, and have only had a couple of 5’s.

This has made me a far more conservative player. I loosely keep 20 race cycles (20 or so…). My win percentages would ranged from upper 40’s to upper 60’s, with the occasional 70’s. Since adding my 5 star rating I have been consistently in the 60’s and 70’s, and even 80’s.

It doesn’t matter how you handicap, weather you use RDSS, or old software, something different, or just by eye. You can add a confidence number no matter how you handicap. Just make sure you do it as you handicap the race, or the number won’t mean as much.

-Doug

CheckMark · 12-31-2023, 11:33 AM

That's awesome to hear, Doug!

I might give that a whirl in 2024 for my handicapping. Thanks!

Happy New Year to you and your family!

12-31-2023, 11:06 AM	#1
OhNoItsDoug AlwNW2X Join Date: Jun 2019 Posts: 22	This was the best change I made in 2023 with my handicapping Over the summer I made a change that was hands down the most profitable change I have ever made. I did not change my handicapping at all. All I did was when I finish handicapping a race, I assign it a confidence number. Basically, how much confidence do I have in my handicapping & understanding of the race. I use a 5 star rating. 1 being I have no clue what is happening in this race, and 5 being a prime bet. I don’t wager on any race below a 3. Most of my handicapped races end up between 2-4. I haven’t had a 1, and have only had a couple of 5’s. This has made me a far more conservative player. I loosely keep 20 race cycles (20 or so…). My win percentages would ranged from upper 40’s to upper 60’s, with the occasional 70’s. Since adding my 5 star rating I have been consistently in the 60’s and 70’s, and even 80’s. It doesn’t matter how you handicap, weather you use RDSS, or old software, something different, or just by eye. You can add a confidence number no matter how you handicap. Just make sure you do it as you handicap the race, or the number won’t mean as much. -Doug

12-31-2023, 11:33 AM	#2
CheckMark Conley Join Date: Sep 2018 Location: Fergus, Canada Posts: 1,777	That's awesome to hear, Doug! I might give that a whirl in 2024 for my handicapping. Thanks! Happy New Year to you and your family! __________________ Life is an adventure, enjoy it and live every day as if it were your last- Barb Craven

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