Results from Saratoga 50% win on one horse - Pace and Cap

CC Brown · 08-04-2008, 12:46 PM

I have had a nice run over 6 days of betting at Saratoga. I played 7/23,7/25,/7/31,/8/1,8/2. I bet 36 races won 10 on one horse win betting. On $2 bet basis the bets would have been $72. I got back $166.40 for a net win of $94.40.
A quick way that I use RDSS is- try to use match-up principals while looking at results the Val 4 gives on the segment screen.
1. I don't bet any race where there are unknown horses- Maidens-turfs with unknowns etc.
2. I look at every horse in race and give a runing style before picking any line.
3. When looking at the horses I will select a probably pace by selecting the E horses best pace fig.- then if I see a better one as I continue to look I select the best ones.
4. Now that I see the pace I then select RL based on today's pace -NOT the best race a horse has run but what it has run against todays pace!!
5. I then look at non-adjusted and adjusted lines to see if a horse can go W-to-W. If not then look to OTE horses.
6. Now I look at the segments screen to see 1st two horses on last segment.
7. If the horse on the top line is also the 1st horse in last segment I don't have to go any further-that's the horse
8. If second horse is the horse I make sure I believe the pace senario before I bet it.
9. I want to see some confirmation on a W-to-W horse in that it shou;ld be 1st or 2nd in the last segment screen.

That's it in a nut shell. Basically using what Richie has clearly layed out before.

Now, will this run continue? Only time will tell but even if it drops to 40% I will be happy. Plus I will modify my betting to stop betting horses that are even money to make them at least 9/5. If I had done that my win% would certainly have dropped.I had 4 horse that paid $4 or lower.
CC

RichieP · 08-04-2008, 01:37 PM

Just tremendous work C.C!

The man with the Stetson has got to be real proud as you have accepted what was shown you and worked hard to make it work for YOU!

it is one thing to be exposed to a method and another to APPLY it profitably.This is a major step and one which you have found an answer to.

Along those lines look for an announcement later this week in the Hat Check forum. One which has been over a year in the making.

Richie

CC Brown · 08-04-2008, 02:25 PM

I posted I had played 36 races. I won 16 to make it a %50 win rate. I think I posted 10 instead of 16.

Richie
I look forward to your post. Your understanding of the match up and the ability to EXPLAIN it has opened my eyes and increased my understanding. Thank you!

CC

mikesal57 · 08-06-2008, 07:45 AM

Nice work CC...

With a avg mutual of $10 at a tough track like Saratoga ..WOW

question...didu change the RDSS config to Val 4 from the default spec 160?

With so many maidens and turf races at Sar, have u tried tracks like Phil or Monmouth for more choices?

mike

CC Brown · 08-06-2008, 08:24 AM

I did the races at Del Mar monday and was 3 for 5. I think they paid $10, $9.20 and $5.80. I do use Val mode. I have not tried the other tracks. It takes me about an hour to do a track so I just try one a day. I have always done well at Saratoga even when I used Aodds but no streaks like this. I will look at the races today and see what can be bet. I certainly don't expect %50 but I do expect over %40. The sad thing with this run is I have made no money from exactas-I'm just even on them.

mikesal57 · 08-06-2008, 08:27 AM

ok...CC..I will be doing Sar too...c u later...

like Richie said with the match-up...most likely you'll have thrown out the 2nd place horse..i'd stick with wining bets

RichieP · 08-06-2008, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CC Brown

2. I look at every horse in race and give a runing style before picking any line.
3. When looking at the horses I will select a probably pace by selecting the E horses best pace fig.- then if I see a better one as I continue to look I select the best ones.
CC

CC
These 2 steps you are doing are EXACTLY the FIRST 2 things Jim had me do EVERY race he would work with me in the ORDER you listed them.

Nice

Turbulator · 08-06-2008, 06:45 PM

Nice post CC, I have a series of questions I would like to ask you if you don't mind. I will post some screen shots that will help to clarify what I'm asking.

Charlie D · 08-07-2008, 12:41 AM

CC

stuff imo

08-04-2008, 12:46 PM	#1
CC Brown AlwNW2X Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 20	Results from Saratoga 50% win on one horse I have had a nice run over 6 days of betting at Saratoga. I played 7/23,7/25,/7/31,/8/1,8/2. I bet 36 races won 10 on one horse win betting. On $2 bet basis the bets would have been $72. I got back $166.40 for a net win of $94.40. A quick way that I use RDSS is- try to use match-up principals while looking at results the Val 4 gives on the segment screen. 1. I don't bet any race where there are unknown horses- Maidens-turfs with unknowns etc. 2. I look at every horse in race and give a runing style before picking any line. 3. When looking at the horses I will select a probably pace by selecting the E horses best pace fig.- then if I see a better one as I continue to look I select the best ones. 4. Now that I see the pace I then select RL based on today's pace -NOT the best race a horse has run but what it has run against todays pace!! 5. I then look at non-adjusted and adjusted lines to see if a horse can go W-to-W. If not then look to OTE horses. 6. Now I look at the segments screen to see 1st two horses on last segment. 7. If the horse on the top line is also the 1st horse in last segment I don't have to go any further-that's the horse 8. If second horse is the horse I make sure I believe the pace senario before I bet it. 9. I want to see some confirmation on a W-to-W horse in that it shou;ld be 1st or 2nd in the last segment screen. That's it in a nut shell. Basically using what Richie has clearly layed out before. Now, will this run continue? Only time will tell but even if it drops to 40% I will be happy. Plus I will modify my betting to stop betting horses that are even money to make them at least 9/5. If I had done that my win% would certainly have dropped.I had 4 horse that paid $4 or lower. CC

08-04-2008, 02:25 PM	#3
CC Brown AlwNW2X Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 20	I see an error in my post at Saratoga I posted I had played 36 races. I won 16 to make it a %50 win rate. I think I posted 10 instead of 16. Richie I look forward to your post. Your understanding of the match up and the ability to EXPLAIN it has opened my eyes and increased my understanding. Thank you! CC

08-06-2008, 07:45 AM	#4
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	Nice work CC... With a avg mutual of $10 at a tough track like Saratoga ..WOW question...didu change the RDSS config to Val 4 from the default spec 160? With so many maidens and turf races at Sar, have u tried tracks like Phil or Monmouth for more choices? mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

08-06-2008, 08:27 AM	#6
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	ok...CC..I will be doing Sar too...c u later... like Richie said with the match-up...most likely you'll have thrown out the 2nd place horse..i'd stick with wining bets __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack Last edited by mikesal57; 08-06-2008 at 08:29 AM.

08-06-2008, 06:45 PM	#8
Turbulator Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 467	Nice post CC, I have a series of questions I would like to ask you if you don't mind. I will post some screen shots that will help to clarify what I'm asking. __________________

08-04-2008, 01:37 PM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Just tremendous work C.C! The man with the Stetson has got to be real proud as you have accepted what was shown you and worked hard to make it work for YOU! it is one thing to be exposed to a method and another to APPLY it profitably.This is a major step and one which you have found an answer to. Along those lines look for an announcement later this week in the Hat Check forum. One which has been over a year in the making. Richie

08-06-2008, 08:24 AM	#5
CC Brown AlwNW2X Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 20	I did the races at Del Mar monday and was 3 for 5. I think they paid $10, $9.20 and $5.80. I do use Val mode. I have not tried the other tracks. It takes me about an hour to do a track so I just try one a day. I have always done well at Saratoga even when I used Aodds but no streaks like this. I will look at the races today and see what can be bet. I certainly don't expect %50 but I do expect over %40. The sad thing with this run is I have made no money from exactas-I'm just even on them.

08-07-2008, 12:41 AM	#9
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	CC stuff imo __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

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