FairGrounds Race of the week mess up

[admin]

Hi Rich
Thank you for the lesson . First off great job on the race
to you ,Racetrackjohnny and all the big winners this week.

Rich, I went back over the race You are the man!!!
Now I see the 114 for horse # 5

Here you will see I must have not been sharp today

fisrt here are my APV CR for the race

# 1 109.2 105
# 2 084.2 0.75
# 3 047.4 0.92
# 4 057.0 0.79
# 5 073.0 1.02
# 6 138.7 1.23
#7 061.6 0.72
#8 098.2 0.99
#9 069.4 0.97

Now here are the original lines I entered into Valm

Right away I should have seen the 114.2 for horse #5
also like I was telling you about on Thursday I sould have
said out load 24.1 48.3 114.2!!! 146.3

[admin]

Here are the adjustment made by Valm

[admin]

I am hiding the six Although its my top apv and CR horse its
6th on Total Energy and PLS
here are my top 5

[admin]

Now for my mess up
ok I took a chance with the nine a turf horse but with the off track
I thought I had a shot after Valm ranked the LAD turf line so well
when I wass picking lines I saw the 2- 3 tandem
I figured this as the pace of the race However I felt that the 3
would again take care of the 2 now my choice was the
5 or the 8 one of them would win I for some reason
Not BLBL
NOT APV/CR
no Idea plus had I been sharp I should have seen that 114.1!!
woulda Coulda shoulda
Thanks for the lesson
maybe in real time next time I will bet
3 8 and at 45/1 a small bet on the wild card 9

thanks Rich
Bill

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by admin

Hi Rich
Thank you for the lesson . First off great job on the race
to you ,Racetrackjohnny and all the big winners this week.

Rich, I went back over the race You are the man!!!
Now I see the 114 for horse # 5

Here you will see I must have not been sharp today

fisrt here are my APV CR for the race

# 1 109.2 105
# 2 084.2 0.75
# 3 047.4 0.92
# 4 057.0 0.79
# 5 073.0 1.02
# 6 138.7 1.23
#7 061.6 0.72
#8 098.2 0.99
#9 069.4 0.97

Now here are the original lines I entered into Valm

Right away I should have seen the 114.2 for horse #5
also like I was telling you about on Thursday I sould have
said out load 24.1 48.3 114.2!!! 146.3

Hi Bill,

Hey as long as we stay consistent in OUR way of working races it is ALL good buddy. NO right or wrong way of doing anything regarding racing. Look at the race I posted the other day at Fg ( mandatory contest race) in the RDSS forum. A lot of folks would keep the winning 1 horse ignoring the fact that the 7 beat it. They would have a nice winner right? I HAVE to toss that horse in THAT situation because the matchup consistently applied( as I understand and have been taught) throws him out PLUS 1 horse win betting can NEVER get me to that horse in that race.

CONSISTENCY in applying what we do is much more important than winning any INDIVIDUAL race. I know that you know that too.

2 Quick observations of the race from a matchup point of view:

1) The #7 is a 1:15 2c horse running against 1:11 and 1:12 horses. Couple that with a DEEP sustained style and you have a "no shot" horse if there ever was one at least from a consistently applied matchup application.

2) The #2 showed 1:10 2c paces from Fg 8.2f distance. WHY did I throw him out? Because there is something WRONG with the timing of that distance COMPARED to the 8f and 8.5f races run over the same track. How do I know? I have 5 horses pp's who have raced at the 8.2 and also the 8 and 8.5f distances. The 8.2f distance RAW is 2 SECONDS faster at 1c and 2c CONSISTENTLY. This HAS to be a run up or timer issue as it is definitely NOT a one horse anomaly.

Regardless it is ALL GOOD and sometimes even a blind squirrel finds a nut

Richie

[Houndog]

Richie, nice hit on the Fairgrounds race of the week. I re-worked the race in Energy since I left the winner out. My question is for the winner would you consider the second race back a "power race".

Although in that race he lost by over 12 lengths he set a pretty quick pace. When I entered this paceline for the horse and using 9 beaten lengths for the finish he shows up good. The reason I am mentioning "power race" this concept was in Jim Bradshaw's Match-Up 2 book. I am just not sure if this race would qualify as a "power race".

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Houndog

Richie, nice hit on the Fairgrounds race of the week. I re-worked the race in Energy since I left the winner out. My question is for the winner would you consider the second race back a "power race".

Although in that race he lost by over 12 lengths he set a pretty quick pace. When I entered this paceline for the horse and using 9 beaten lengths for the finish he shows up good. The reason I am mentioning "power race" this concept was in Jim Bradshaw's Match-Up 2 book. I am just not sure if this race would qualify as a "power race".

Hi "Dog"

here is a screenhot of the winner's pp's. I have checked 3 races that can be considered power lines for this horse ok?

The Power Line is what makes the horse FAST.

Line 6 we use the 1 mile "backup time" at the stretch call AND position (1st).

Line 4 when we subtract 6.4 seconds( in tenths as these numbers are) and factor in pace of race becomes a very fast line indeed. This subtracting gets us to a distance of 8f where we can COMPARE to the other 8f times shown in the other checked races ok?

I would not consider line 2 for myself ( but it is all good ok) because the
horse stopped like it was shot right after the 2c Mike.

Hope this helps
Richie

[Houndog]

Richie, I see your point with your pacelines. This horse had several good lines you could use that would definitely make him a contender. After seeing your examples I don't know why I left him out of the program in the first place.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Houndog

Richie, I see your point with your pacelines. This horse had several good lines you could use that would definitely make him a contender. After seeing your examples I don't know why I left him out of the program in the first place.

"Dog",

If I may look at line 7.

LOOK at the 1st FRACTION. 23.0 that is a TWO turn race on a slow racetrack Mike.This sucker is FAST early man. Matter of fact in the pp's thread before the race ran THAT line is the one I show for this one.

Hey man listen. Try this WHEN you get a chance ok?

Make today's paceline distance 8f
take the first fraction and first call from that line 7
23.0 ( fifths)
46.4

then switch to the last line and take the 2c and finish time
112.1
137.3

ok Now we have a "Virtual line"
23.0 - 46.4 - 112.1 - 137.3

let's use the positioning from the Mnr line 7 race ok?

2nd - 1.5 back
1st
1st
1st

I have attached a screen shot with the 2 lines I refer to checked
See what the horse looks like now on readouts.

Dog I am DEAD serious when I tell you THIS is what The Hat is teaching me to do in my head with horse's and pacelines. HE does this ALL the time and is a BIG part of his "Voodoo" stuff man. I would never lie or embellish the truth.

What I just showed you goes WAY beyond the 5 step approach and a VERY open mind is needed to even CONSIDER this


Hope this helps and that you don't consider me INSANE
Richie

[Houndog]

Richie, I did as you suggested with American Man. The first screen attached here is the Match-Up / UXR Screen. I left #2 Perfect Sand in to illustrate why you could eliminate this horse as a win contender. First of all the F1 is 36.44 which is really high for a route race. His F2 and F3 is lowest. Also has the highest UXR. This horse is really deficient in F2 and F3.