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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 04-28-2019, 12:39 AM   #1
Mitch44
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Ky. Derby distance.

Below are my analysis for the horses best suited to the Derby distance only, other factors will be considered when RDSS becomes available..

The Mitch Dis. Rating is my own number, done by rating each horse to see the progression or improvement of the rating in their charts as they increased distances of races and improved or didn’t improve as a 3 year old, culminating and taken from only the chosen line to ascertain how it handled the distance ran, his ability to accept longer races or stretch out to todays 1 ¼ distance ability. Just another tool to get a handle on stretch outs which can also be determined by others means.

Last year the #1 ranked horse won, Justify. While none in this field match his number (if a par) they are ranked by the competition they meet today.

The number has been simplified by using a scale of 100 for ease of understanding. It is another factor to be considered among other factors.

1. Tacitus- 90.45
2. By My Standard - 90.45
3. Maximum Security- 90.0
4. Spinoff - 89.55
5. Tax - 89.30
6. Vekoma - 89.1

These horses gap the remainder of the field. Due to the closeness this year of the ratings some other stuff was added to break the ties and closeness, therefore the ranking themselves take precedence.

Good luck,

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 04-28-2019 at 12:41 AM.
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Old 04-28-2019, 10:12 AM   #2
Bill V.
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Mitch Dis

Very nice factor Mitch, wishing you good skill
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Old 04-29-2019, 06:17 AM   #3
RichieP
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Thanks Mitch for sharing this!
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Old 04-29-2019, 10:38 AM   #4
Bill Lyster
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Mitch, see PM just sent.
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Old 05-04-2019, 09:12 PM   #5
Mitch44
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My distance factor did well again this year with the real winner ranked 3rd. With the top 3 all very close. In my actual bet I discounted the 2nd choice and didn't play it as my additional handicapping said Tacitus and Maximum Security.


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Old 05-04-2019, 09:35 PM   #6
Bill V.
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Numbers

Your numbers and skill will win out in the end

GOOD work
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