Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Hat Check - How Can We Help You? > Matchup Discussion
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-28-2015, 07:49 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
8 Month Matchup Thread (Re-posted)

Jim Bradshaw’s Match-Up - 8 Month Update

I have been learning and working the Match-Up for the past 8 months.

What follows are 6 KEY areas of learning and understanding that have come to form the core of my application of the techniques on a daily basis.

Some you will recognize from posts while others are well outside the 5 step approach. This is how I have been taught from day 1.

The 6 KEY areas of Jim Bradshaw’s Match-Up:

1) INTUITION - Allowing the inner voice to be heard as well as Pattern Recognition. Without this there is NO Match-Up, at least Jim’s Match-Up. Take this to the bank.

2) POSITIONING - Including the virtual NON-importance of Beaten Lengths in The Hat’s Match-Up.

3) EARLY or OTHER THAN EARLY - Simplifying the Match-Up regarding running styles PLUS easing confusion regarding WHOM to bet.

4) FIGHTERS - a POWERFUL weapon for the Hat and something which has been taught to me over and over since day ONE.

5) SPOT PLAYS - combining pattern recognition with multi-tracking to maximize PROFITS.

6) VOODOO - Jim’s LEGENDARY reputation of leaving the best of the best in awe at what he does. Is it possible to learn a BIT of what he does and then APPLY it for ourselves to races and get the “impossible horse”?

YES. However, to seriously try and apply this, a totally OPEN mind is needed. A mind where ALL rules and mainstream stuff is thrown to the curb.

I am going to take EACH of the 6 areas listed beginning Monday and post extensively about them INDIVIDUALLY so as not to rush through and forget.

Richie Pizzicara


1st Key - INTUITION


Originally Posted by RichieP
1) INTUITION - Allowing the inner voice to be heard as well as Pattern Recognition. Without this there is NO Match-Up, at least Jim’s Match-Up. Take this to the bank.

Intuition:
1) The act or faculty of knowing without the use of rational processes. Immediate cognition.

2) A capacity for guessing accurately. Sharp insight.

Webster’s Dictionary
--------------------------------------------------------
Why start here? How do I KNOW this is the most important part of Jim’s Match-Up?

Because ignoring this aspect led to the ONE and only time I QUIT the Match-Up and swore off it. This after I had been working it for 3 months.

Yup, if I am going to write it has to be the truth. Only Bill and Jim knew what I just wrote to be true.

It was September and I had lost 3 races in a row. For some reason I looked back on those 3 races AFTER they had run and found a way to make the winner come up strong. This after being told by Jim NOT to do this because I would wind up all messed up. I didn’t care. I HAD to get that winner to come up and figured once I did everything going forward would take care of itself.

Boy was I WRONG. The following day I matched 3 races and found myself taking all this extra time looking for this and looking for that. Same thing I had done on the completed races the day before BUT this race hadn’t run yet. Bottom line I lost ALL 3 races. So I go back and once again make the winner come up AFTER the race runs.

Long story short this goes on for 15 races over 4-5 days and I lose them ALL. I stopped talking with Jim and stopped talking with Bill. Just wouldn’t answer the phone. So that Saturday Bill shows up at my door unannounced and we go out and talk.

He then tells me to call Jim. I do and he says “what the hell is wrong Rich.” I told him I lost a ton of races in a row and he says he KNOWS what I am doing. He tells me “Rich you started looking back at the races you lost AFTER it ran didn’t you?” I said YES.

He told me “you can NOT look back after the fact because your ability to make the right choice on a LIVE race will be destroyed by all the SECOND GUESSING you did after the fact. See that stuff is going to be in your head when looking live and you can NOT win.” So we spent the next week working hard on races and focusing ONLY on the race at hand. Goodbye long losing streak.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Jim stresses over and over that intuition is recognizing patterns that keep repeating. He tells me in order to hear that “little voice” inside an environment that is QUIET and RELAXED is needed. He tells me that EVERY time he goes to play the races he sits alone for a couple of minutes and just closes his eyes and “gets quiet” with himself. He calls it getting in the zone.

Two months ago I was talking with him when all of a sudden he tells me “Rich don’t go crazy after I tell you this, OK? I do NOT pay attention to tandems. I do NOT project a pace. When I am ‘ON’ I open the form and there is the winner of the race. Try it sometime and see.”

I asked him if he was messing with me again and he said “NO I am serious. The race has run already even though it hasn’t. Now just find the horse that has already won.” I hear LeRoi in the backround telling me “he’s doing that weird stuff again Richie!”

I heard what he said that day but honestly did NOT understand what he was telling me. I DO now. It’s PATTERN RECOGNITION at a very high level.

When we look at a race it is something that HAS run before. Many, many times as a matter of fact. Things change such as
names
tracks
distances
surfaces
but the CORE of the race is the same.

What we CAN do as beginning “matchers” is to be aware of one or two certain types of races that we HAVE seen run and KNOW who the winner “looks like” in the pp’s BEFORE the race runs. We can FOCUS on finding these type races to wager on.

This is where Jim’s SPOT PLAYS become a SERIOUS weapon for us to use if we have PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE to wait on them.

He tells me “Rich, focus on the races that you RECOGNIZE. As you gain more experience with the Match-Up you will be able to recognize more races to bet on. Take things one step at a time and realize you are doing this for 8 months while I am at it for over 20 YEARS.”

Regarding patterns, I am also seeing that there are patterns of races that tell me I have NO business looking at the race cause I will NOT win it based on what I have seen BEFORE. NEGATIVE patterns if you will. Jim says these are also extremely important and when that feeling comes to run as fast as I can AWAY from the race.

This screenshot shows what MY favorite type of EARLY looks like at the FIRST call (first fraction in routes). I have seen this PATTERN over and over and over in successful “Spot play early” races.

“Intuition is pattern recognition. Relax and open your mind to recognize certain races that have run before. Then go to the pp’s and find the horse that has already won based on what has happened BEFORE.” - The Hat

I will end here with a screenshot that shows one small thing, BUT it is something that has shown itself to be VERY powerful with early runners. This is the WINNING “picture” for me for an EARLY horse at the FIRST call.



Richie
Intuition - A capacity for guessing accurately. Sharp insight.

2nd Key - Positioning/Beaten Lengths

POSITION - A place or location. The right or appropriate place. - Webster’s

“The 2 biggest reasons why folks can’t learn the Match-Up are
1) Making RULES for everything
2) Getting hung up on a horse’s BEATEN LENGTHS.
I know this to be true because I have been teaching the Match-Up for 20+ years.” - Jim Bradshaw
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Now it is time to begin to see things in a horse’s past performances the way the Hat does.

While we cannot be the Hat and see ALL he “sees” in a race we can use these techniques to become STRONGER matchers. Please watch and remember there are NO rules.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BEATEN LENGTHS:

I want to lay out the few areas where beaten lengths ARE important to the Hat and CAN and SHOULD be used to evaluate both a horse and a potential SPOT PLAY situation.

My original post said that the 6 things listed all come together and work together to become ONE application. Well here it is.

1) When evaluating an EARLY horse (one which we project is going to go wire to wire and can NOT pass horses if he doesn’t get the lead), LOOK at the beaten lengths at the FIRST CALL of his WINNING wire jobs and see if he can get that same lead today based on the early Match-Up. Use the FIRST CALL and compare him with the other earlies (also HERE bring in the position 2-hd and 2-nk guys because they WANT the lead too). If the horse can NOT get the lead he had in his winning line throw the horse out immediately.

2) When a horse loses BOTH position and beaten lengths between the 1st and 2nd calls this is a strong indication THAT pace is one he can NOT handle. If he GAINS position or beaten lengths from 1c to 2c use this as a positive indicator that he can handle the pace.

3) When you FIRST open a race scroll the horses and find the fastest PACE OF RACE from the LAST RACE. Look at the horse(s) and check the position and beaten lengths at 1c AND 2c. If the horse maintains position and/or beaten lengths (NOT talking about pos 8-8 for ex, some looking at races like this will show YOU what is ok) this is a TRIGGER to open the horse’s WHOLE pp’s up and evaluate him off BEST line(s).

You can make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type horse WHEN he FITS the race shape you are projecting to win today (early or other than early).

This fastest pace from the last race also opens the door to do some VOODOO by taking that pace of race and then using other lines’ POSITIONING to create a virtual line that NOBODY at the track can “see.” This is the way the Hat introduced me to his Voodoo for the first time a few months back and it blew my mind. We will do a full race on this when we get to that part.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITIONING:

“We want to bet the horse that is closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race” - Jim Bradshaw

To be HONEST this is very simple and it is the way the Hat decides his horse to bet in EVERY race. It might sound complicated and you think “well what if this appears or what about this factor.”

Relax. Open your mind to new things. WATCH.

They say a picture is worth a thousand words right?

We want to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

The #2 is the winner $9.40:



We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

The #2 is the winner $9.00:



We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

The winner is #5 - $23.60:



We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

The winner is the #2 - $9.60:



We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

The winner is the #6 - $5.20:



We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

The winner is the #5 - $12.40:



We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

Winner is the #6 - $6.20:





02-12-2007, 10:09 AM
2nd Key - Positioning

I spent a LOT of writing on the beaten lengths because I wanted to make sure I covered the only real areas where they come into play in Jim Bradshaw’s Match-Up.

The POSITIONING part is what is messing a lot of folks up and to be HONEST it did to ME also at the start.

What Jim did with me was basically what I have just done. Produce a SERIES of races rapid fire where the picture, when LOOKED AT CLOSELY, tells the whole story.

POSITIONING is actually very SIMPLE. Just

1) RELAX
2) LOOK at what the pictures show
3) RELAX
4) LOOK at what the pictures show

THERE it is.

Jim Bradshaw’s POSITIONING.

Richie
POSITION - A place or location. The right or appropriate place.


Delta 02-07, 7th

Richie:

With respect to the Delta Downs race 7 on 2-07, are you saying that the race is over at the first call because the presser Rufus, 2nd, 1.5L off a 48, is so far ahead of Stratford on Avon, 2nd 1L off a 49.8, EVEN THOUGH the final time adjusts to TWO seconds faster (141.6 vs 143.6 for Rufus)? That is a big WOW. I worked this race last week and I was content in a two horse betting situation to get it down to both of these pressers, but my first impression was that the 2 sec better time made Stratford on Avon a better play.

Nice lesson. ALL RICHIE, ALL THE TIME!

Richie:

I worked the 7th after you posted the PPs. I came down to the 2 contenders you show but thought Stratford the better of the two if I had to pick just one. Of course I am still a two horse bettor, so the prize would have been mine.

So what I gather from today’s post is that the Delta 7th race was really OVER at the FIRST call. Rufus, a presser was 1.5L off a 48 1st call and Stratford, another presser was 1L off a 49.8 1st call in an 8.5f race where the projected mile time was 141.40, compared to Rufus’ final time of 143.20. That is a really big WOW that puts an entirely new light on long held “facts.”

Thanks for the insight.




You are getting it amigo. I believe the word final time has NOT been used at ALL in anything we have said or done yet.

Now take it a step further and “back up” your positional/pace of race assessment to INCLUDE the FIRST FRACTION (something which fwiw NOBODY does in ROUTES). NOW how do things look to YOU?

“We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race” - The Hat

Shedding new light on long held “facts” - Jim Bradshaw’s Match-Up.

Richie

Hi Richie!!

Can you explain what you mean by “factoring in pace of race.”

Do you mean to look at all the horses’ last race and pick the fastest pace (if possible close to today’s distance), and then pick a horse that will run close to that pace? And don’t look at the lengths that the horse is behind the leader?

I am confused. Do we look at the first 2 calls to find this horse that is close to the pace?

This part of what I wrote:

“3) When you FIRST open a race scroll the horses and find the fastest PACE OF RACE from the LAST RACE. Look at the horse(s) and check the position and beaten lengths at 1c AND 2c. If the horse maintains position and/or beaten lengths (NOT talking about pos 8-8 for ex, some looking at races like this will show YOU what is ok) this is a TRIGGER to open the horse’s WHOLE pp’s up and evaluate him off BEST line (s).

“You can make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type horse WHEN he FITS the race shape you are projecting to win today (early or other than early).”
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

It has NOTHING to do with the 7 screenshots shown.

The “fastest pace from last race” is something Jim taught me to do in EVERY race I open up to work. This is kind of a primer to start seeing things about the race that might reveal a horse that is extremely dangerous from what he shows in his LAST RACE.

1) Battling for the lead from 1c-2c
2) Making a QUICK positional move from 1c-2c, etc., etc.

Note that the last thing written about this is the “possibility to make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type of horse WHEN it fits today’s winning race shape early or other than early”

We do this FIRST when looking at a race. Then if the horse shows NOTHING against the pace we MOVE ON with the working of the race, matching, etc., etc.

If he DOES show positive signs from the race we then have to see if he FITS the race shape that’s gonna win today
a) Early - projecting a wire to wire win
b) Other than early - ALL other races

For example:
Our horse battled gamely from 1c-2c against the fastest pace from last race before collapsing. OK, so we open his pp’s up and grab his fastest line (Power line) to evaluate against the others today.

BUT in today’s race there are 2 or 3 other PURE EARLY runners and our guy is the SAME. If he can NOT pass horses he is identified as EARLY style and with the other earlies in the race (assuming their 1st fractions are at least as fast as our guy), TODAY’S winner is going to be Other than early. Our horse does NOT fit this shape.

That’s why I described this “look” at “the fastest pace from last race” as a good thing to create a SPOT PLAY from. It’s only going to help us in SOME races BUT we have to do the mental work and look at EVERY race to find the ones where it WILL tell us something.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

All this has NOTHING to do with the screen shots shown. The screenshots are simply the horse’s POWER LINES or lines that make then FAST. That’s what we match from and bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

I hope this clear things up a bit. - Richie


02-13-2007, 09:50 AM
3rd Key - Early/Other than early


Let’s go directly to the BIG question. WHOM are we going to bet in THIS race? No sense dancing around this. We will deal with the rest after.

“Rich the race is going to be run Early or other than early, OK? Forget about nitpicking running styles with all this presser, early presser, sustained presser, late bullcrap. This is a much simpler way to look at a race and find the horse to bet. Keep an OPEN mind.” - Jim Bradshaw
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Finding the horse to BET:

EARLY - a horse that we project to wire the TODAY’S field. When looking at the pp’s for the race this can be a horse that has the lead at the first call or a horse that is 2nd-hd / 2nd-nk but figures to get the lead against TODAY’S field and wire them. **This can only be ONE horse**
------------------------------------------------------------------------

I am going to show a couple of screenshots now but first PLEASE go back and read again the previous post about matching the earlies at the FIRST call and immediately eliminating those that can NOT get the lead they need to WIN. Very important.

Here is a screenshot from just last night at Mnr. Here are the horse’s Power lines. We see 2 early runners, the #4 and #8. Check the first calls on both and you should see the #4’s life is over as the #8 DOMINATES him early.

That means in TODAY’S Match-Up the #4 is NOT early but is reduced to other than early with the presence of the #8.

He MUST be removed IMMEDIATLEY from consideration. NOW.



We have removed the #4 and now re-evaluate the race.

The #8 now appears as Lone Early and has the added plus of TWO calls of “FIGHTING” (1c-2c) that should not happen today. These are extra units if energy available for him TODAY.

Also notice that NOW the next closest horse POSITIONALLY after the #8 is position FOUR. There are NO pos 2 or even 3’s NOW.

We have a FAST dominant early horse with no positional challenges.



So TODAY’S race is going to run EARLY with the #8 dominant. So we throw EVERYONE else the heck out NOW.

Yes that’s the Hat in action. Throws whole chunks of the field out IMMMEDIATELY.

Here is what is left to make WIN betting decisions from.

Kind of EASY to figure out.

THIS is how to figure out and work the EARLY race shapes.

The #8 is the winner of the race - $4.80:



“Most races Rich are going to be won other than early” - Jim Bradshaw

Finding the horse to BET:

OTHER THAN EARLY:
1) We have looked at a race and decided there is too much pressure at the FIRST call among the early horses to have one of them win. The most important thing we HAVE to do IMMEDIATELY is throw the early horses ALL out NOW.

Then AFTER removing ALL of them we bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

WATCH.

Screenshot showing everyone with multiple lines entered to verify styles:



OTHER THAN EARLY (cont):

Now we remove ALL the position 1 guys at the FIRST CALL. We have a classic other than early race shape.

Of the REMAINING horses we are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

See all these “keys” work TOGETHER with some practice (and I am included here, still learning for sure).

Here is the race NOW after throwing practically the whole darn field OUT.

WHOM are YOU going to bet?? BET the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

See it?

The #5 is the winner of the race - $23.60:



To make this concept work for YOU there is one thing that HAS to be done in EVERY race worked (whether early or other than early). It is also something that IS going to make some VERY uncomfortable. Here it is in spades:

You MUST throw whole groups of horses OUT of the race.
You MUST throw whole groups of horses OUT of the race.
You MUST throw whole groups of horses OUT of the race.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

In the case of an “Early” shape the WHOLE field is tossed except for the true early.

There goes the security blanket of being able to say after the race runs and we lose: “But look, I have the horse in my readouts. There he is. Look.”

Who gives a rat’s tail? We did NOT bet the horse because of one reason or another. THAT is the bottom line.

Removing horses as shown in the previous posts is the ONLY way to have a chance to SUCCESSFULLY use Jim Bradshaw’s Early/Other than early concept of finding and betting THE horse (win or lose) in TODAY’S race.

I will tell you this. Of EVERYTHING posted so far THIS will be the HARDEST thing to do.

If you are NOT willing to take the plunge and do this, FORGET about learning and using the 3rd key. PERIOD.

ALL joking and back slapping etc., etc., are FINISHED. THIS is SERIOUS.

Can YOU do this?
Can YOU take the next step?
Can YOU open your mind to truly NEW ideas?
Can YOU accept LOSING races while NOT seeing the winner?
Can YOU accept a loss and NOT look back but instead look FORWARD?

This is Jim Bradshaw’s Early/other than Early.

Richie



02-13-2007, 01:11 PM
OK, I need this one clarified. When first looking at the race I look first for the key race (fastest pace at TODAY’S track correct?). Now if the horse that ran against this pace shows nothing (at this time, correct me if I’m wrong here please) I’m going to look for another probable pace, looking for the E types and take it from there. This has always confused me here, whether to use the fastest last line from today’s track or once again, if the horse shows little against this line to look elsewhere for the probable pace.



The ONLY thing I have posted so far is this:

“3) When you FIRST open a race scroll the horses and find the fastest PACE OF RACE from the LAST RACE. Look at the horse(s) and check the position and beaten lengths at 1c AND 2c. If the horse maintains position and/or beaten lengths (NOT talking about pos 8-8 for ex, some looking at races like this will show YOU what is ok) this is a TRIGGER to open the horse’s WHOLE pp’s up and evaluate him off BEST line(s).

“You can make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type horse WHEN he FITS the race shape you are projecting to win today (early or other than early).”
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Keep this SEPERATE from projecting a pace and things associated with the 5 step approach and the book.

Projecting a pace and the 5 step approach obviously are all good BUT that is NOT what the above quoted stuff is.

The above quoted passage is one of SEVERAL ADVANCED techniques the Hat taught me and it goes BEYOND what the book teaches.

I am describing some of these techniques here in this thread. You do NOT have to know any of them to WIN.

Go SLOWLY and try to do what the post says BEFORE you go and apply the techniques in Match-Up 2 (projecting pace, using same track, etc.).

If it messes you up it is FINE to totally disregard the whole section quoted. After you get more comfortable with the techniques in the book you can revisit this later. NO SWEAT.

Richie

Does it matter if the “fighting” occurs during a slow pace? If the Pace is slow during this, should this bonus be discounted?

Hopefully the next key which focuses on “fighters” will clear up your questions.

Richie

4th Key - The Fighter

“Rich I love fighters” - Jim Bradshaw - 1st day working with him - May 2006

“Rich you know how much I love fighters” - Jim Bradshaw - June 2006

“Rich he’s lone early plus a fighter. I love him” - Jim Bradshaw - July 2006

“Rich the 2 loves to fight and he is fast” - Jim Bradshaw - August 2006

“Rich, the fighter is using extra units of energy. The other’s are not.” - Jim Bradshaw - September 2006

“When you are considering a line where a horse fought give him extra credit in your mind when evaluating him” - Jim Bradshaw - October 2006

“Early horses who show the ability to fight at the 1c and/or 2c and still go on to win the race are extremely dangerous horses, Rich.” - Jim Bradshaw - November 2006

“When evaluating an early horse to see if it can get the lead it needs at the 1st call to win, include the 2-hd and 2-nk horses in addition to the other earlies at the 1st call. They are fighters and HAVE to be accounted for, Rich.” - Jim Bradshaw - December 2006

“A horse that shows up as a fighter at a certain call might have been engaged in the fight for over a quarter of a mile Rich. THINK about how FAR that actually is.” - Jim Bradshaw - January 2007
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
A fighter is a horse that goes up and looks another horse in the eye. This is seen in the pp’s by a:
1) hd
2) nk
next to the horse’s position at that call. PERIOD.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trying to put an ABSOLUTE “value” on fighting between calls is NOT possible. The fighter IS using extra units of energy in the race that can and should be factored in to his evaluation TODAY.

How much credit and what interpretation of him is correct will get stronger and more solid through PRACTICE and EXPOSURE to HUNDREDS of these type horses. I am personally going through this right now.

I CAN say this with CERTAINTY:
If in your mind you are considering a horse who fought at ONE call as having used ONE extra unit of energy, then a horse who has fought at TWO calls has used MORE than 2 extra units of energy.

The energy usage is NOT proportional. These multi call fighters are VICIOUS.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jim tells me this PATTERN RECOGNITION of fighters and their impact on races will become clearer in our minds with PRACTICE and EXPOSURE to many hundreds of races where they are present.

WHY am I including the fighter as one of the 6 keys even though explaining what exactly his worth is becomes a PERSONAL exploration?

Because THIS is the ONE thing that has remained the same in Jim’s teachings to me from day ONE. Something I always remember when working a race for the rest of my life.

Other techniques and “looks” at certain concepts like tandems, pace, etc. have CHANGED over months of working hundreds of races with him but the FIGHTER and his POWER in Jim’s mind has always stayed the SAME.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Look at the # 2 - an early fighter - wins the race:



Look at the 5 - other than early Fighter - wins the race



The 8 wins the race - an early fighter:



the 6 wins the race - an early fighter:





02-14-2007, 02:20 PM
5th Key - Spot Plays


“I have spot plays that can turn a bad day into a good one and a good one into an excellent one” - Jim Bradshaw’s Match-Up 2 with the 5 step approach (page 139)

“Rich instead of looking at one track and trying to figure every race, multi track a few and look for spot plays that work for you” - Jim Bradshaw

“Rich you need the races to produce income for you. Don’t do what I do and bet every race at every track. Spot play” - Jim Bradshaw
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
In working races over and over in the SAME way, I have a total of THREE spot plays in my arsenal as of this post. I am close to having a 4th but it is not firmly set in my mind. I need to see a few more SUCCESSFUL applications of it before I KNOW I will win using it.

Here are the 3 I have and I will save the strongest for ME for last.

***IMPORTANT***
What follows are PATTERNS of horse’s “looks.” The track, distance, surface, class are all MEANINGLESS.

1) Lone Early - Pretty much self explanatory. I have fairly good results with this with most of the winners toward the low payer side. Not all but most.

Here is a screenshot of a lone early. The #2 is the winner of the race.





My 2nd spot play is one I love.

I have gotten good at these especially the last 30-45 days. This is DIRECTLY due to something Jim had told me a few months earlier but it had NOT sunk in. It finally did and if it does for you there is MONEY here.

Again all of the keys tie together and this is no exception.

Jim re-emphasized LOOKING at the first call beaten lengths needed by an early horse to win and then checking that against TODAY’S Match-Up at the FIRST call. If the horse can NOT get it today remove him IMMEDIATELY.

Couple his words with KNOWING his strong opinion on FIGHTERS has led to this, my 2nd spot play:

2) Dominant early in race with multiple earlies. Go SLOWLY and look at the 2 races I am going to post.

Start with the FIRST call as always and check pace of race and then the FIGHTING if present. Then re-read what the Hat emphasized. Then LOOK at the screenshot.

This spot play for ME is the “home of the 8.00 to 14.00 horse.” For some reason there is a bit of confusion present in the betting of these races very often. The mutuels listed are GREAT in my opinion.

This first example is from Charlestown. Shoeless’ home track. I worked this race with him over the phone and Jeff NAILED the winner in like 15 seconds.

How THIS horse paid $10.00 is beyond me.

The winner is the #1:





2) Dominant early in race with multiple earlies (cont) - This next race we go to Santa Anita. Again LISTEN to what Jim says about the FIRST CALL and then look SLOWLY a couple of times at this screenshot.

I hope you can see the same PATTERN as the previous race. If not right away it is OK. Go SLOWLY and look a few times. Wait a day and go back and revisit. This is EXACTLY what Jim would do with me if and when I would get stuck.

The winner is the # 2 - $9.40:





02-15-2007, 08:58 AM
The faster #9 line indicates a spark of dominant early. I can certainly see that #9 is not truly ‘dominant’ early because of his second call time (and beyond). This raises the question of how fast #9’s second call would have to be for the entire play to shift to #9 as Spot Play #2 - Dominant Early? Is #9’s actual first call fast enough to be considered ‘dominant early’? I’m just thinking aloud about all the subtleties of the process. The lines of delineation are fuzzy- perhaps this is the nature of the ‘art’ of Match-Up.



02-15-2007, 05:57 PM
Check the first fractions and first calls of the #9’s pacelines. Then COMPARE those to the # 8 and #10. Then look at the LEAD he had at the 1st call and see if he can get that same lead today.

He can NOT even get the lead with the presence of BOTH the 8 and 10 in TODAY’S race so we remove him IMMEDIATELY.

Richie



02-15-2007, 06:32 PM
Thanks Richie-

#9 is fighter and a more than double fighter because of the 1-hd at the first two calls. Even with this more than double extra credit, he does not get the lead?

Hmmmm?

Nevertheless, I get your drift...thanks for your clarification and reply.



02-15-2007, 06:47 PM
In the above race the 9 can’t get the lead (actually he can but we are handicapping with past performances and not result charts).

He is a 24 1st fraction going against a 23.3 and a 23.4. It will be tough to fight a horse that positionally runs early and will be 1 to 2 LENGTHS ahead of him. Fighting is looking the horse in the eye according to the Hat.

Tough to do when you see nothing but 2 horse’s rear end in front of you.

Download this file I have attached here Yank.

It’s today’s Tampa Bay. Race 4 has a perfect example of YOUR double fighter and as you will see he fits the MATCH-UP of today’s horses quite nicely. I won’t say who it is but when you find him he won the race easily.

NOTE: See Match-up Forum Supplement.pdf, race 4



02-15-2007, 08:40 PM
Yep, #8 Uno Way Calle seems like the pace of the race and untouchable. I do see #5 General Ridgway closing and maybe #7 Jude’s Star but I don’t think #8 can be caught.

This is maiden race with a first time starter to boot. Are these to be bet?



02-15-2007, 10:01 PM
Great call on the winning 8. He obliterated the field.

Regarding the FTS question and it’s a great one.

Jim taught me to bet ANY and EVERY race where I can find THE HORSE that I KNOW is going to win. Even if the horse loses I still KNOW the horse is going to win. Follow? Those races are the ones he wants me to FOCUS on and SPOT PLAY. FTS means NOTHING to him.


The Hat is in a league of his own when it comes to matching.

My STRONGEST suggestions to you regarding working races are these:

1) When you work a race and WIN, SAVE it in some way (I do things on a laptop so a “screen capture” saved to “My Documents” works). After you have saved up at least a few of these go and look for PATTERNS OF SUCCESS there.

2) NEVER take a race you lost and go back and MAKE the winner come up. You will find yourself up the creek without a paddle QUICKLY.

This applies to ANYONE using ONLY raw pp’s to match horses. That is all I can speak on with certainty.

PRACTICE AND LOOK BACK ONLY ON WINNING RACES.

Richie

02-14-2007, 03:05 PM
5th Key - Spot Plays

This 3rd and last spot play is unreal. Plain and simple.

3) Other than early into THREE matching earlies at the FIRST CALL:

I found this play after working a few races “live” with Jim on the phone during the Keeneland fall meet.

Wanna know what pressure is? Being on the phone with the Hat (while he is watching TVG showing the races live) and have him wait until the horses are LOADING into the gate to ask you to work a race and “hurry up Rich they are almost ready to run. Who is the horse Rich?”

The first 2 races worked like this my horse lost.

Then the third time I scanned the field, saw something DIFFERENT and told him “Jim there are 3 matching earlies at the first call.”

He QUICKLY said “Rich WHO is sitting 3rd or 4th? THAT is the winner after you toss the earlies. Just make sure the horse is FAST. Hurry up they are gonna pop the gate.”

I heard what he said and then saw THE horse. It was the #2. I told him the 2 was my horse and they were off and running. Jim described the race and around the turn all I can remember was hearing him say “Rich your 2 is passing everybody and is going to win the race! He is 9/1!”

That was the FIRST time I had gotten a winner with him before the race ran and it felt GREAT. Something honestly I will NEVER forget.

Then the next day he tells me a race to do and I lose it.

The next day he picks a race just about to run and I SEE it is the SAME race as the one I hit a couple days earlier. Only this time it is a route instead of a sprint. I tell Jim all this and he says QUICKLY “Rich do the SAME thing you did before. Tell me the horse sitting 3rd-4th who is FAST. That is the winner. Don’t matter if it’s 4f or 10f. WHO is the horse Rich and hurry up.”

I don’t remember the number but find the horse and tell him as the gate pops. Sure enough the SAME thing happens with my horse blowing past everyone at about 9/2 or 5/1.

He then tells me “Rich you are getting real good with these type races. That’s 2 nice winners back to back. You should look for these race types and SPOT PLAY.”

Well those words from Jim and that EXPERIENCE has NEVER left me nor will it ever.

THIS spot play is the “home of the $10.00 to $40.00 horse.” Total chaos is OFTEN present in the betting of the race as nobody knows what the hell to do.

By FAR the highest win price average of MY spot plays. Also the highest win %. YES I keep records.

Here is a screenshot of the whole field using multiple lines:





02-14-2007, 05:05 PM
Richie,

If that was me looking at that race I would have probably played the 8 as the lone early off the 23.4 47.6.



02-14-2007, 07:10 PM
EXCELLENT!

This is what I was hoping for. Now LOOK at the FIRST CALL for your 8. How many lengths did he have the lead by THERE? The answer is TWO.

NOW go look at the #10 FIRST CALL what is his time THERE?

23.3 (fifths) right? So the question is:

IS THE 8 GOING TO BE ABLE TO GET THE 2 LENGTH LEAD HE NEEDED TO WIRE THAT FIELD IN TODAY’S MATCH-UP ???????

The answer is NO. Do you see that? When he can’t get it THROW THE HORSE OUT IMMEDIATELY.

This is what Jim showed me over 3 months ago Jeff and I could NOT understand it and frankly it cost me a LOT of losses betting on presumed lone earlies that wound up getting destroyed.

HONEST TRUTH.

LOOK and then re-read what the Hat writes about this in the previous posts I made.

There is NOBODY doing this. IF we can take our time and absorb this lesson, we have DEFINITE advantage in certain races.

I am SO glad you posted what you did because for TWO MONTHS I did the same thing as you and watched most of the horses LOSE.

That is keeping it real.

Richie



02-14-2007, 07:50 PM
So what you are saying is even though the 8 got out in a faster 1st call by 2\5ths of a second he wouldn’t be as fast as the 10 who got out by 4 in a slower time. If that’s the case I’m glad I asked that question because I screwed up a few races.



02-14-2007, 10:36 PM
In FIFTHS of a second the 8 is a:

23.2 -7f
23.4 - 8f

BOTH races he has a TWO length lead at the FIRST CALL which is his COMFORT zone to WIN so if any EARLY style horse runs a 23.4 (using his 7f line - 24.1 using the 8f line) this guy will NOT have the same lead he shows when WINNING.

Now look at the 10:
23.3 ON THE LEAD

NO WAY the 8 gets his 2 length COMFORT ZONE with this guy in the race. At MOST he gets a ONE length lead so he is thrown out IMMEDIATELY.

See it?

FORGET:
1) 2nd c
2) final time
3) speed ratings

Let’s try going where NOBODY goes. That is what this Hat method IS. Unique and POWERFUL after some PRACTICE.

Hope this clears it up,
Richie



02-14-2007, 03:08 PM
5th Key - Spot Plays

3) Other than early into 3 matching earlies at the FIRST call (cont):

Here is the screenshot AFTER removing ALL the position1 guys at the first call.

The winner is the #5 - $23.60:





02-15-2007, 07:46 PM
Richie:

Looking forward, I’m curious to know if you or Jim have identified a finite number of spot plays, more than the three already presented and the one you are still working on. I for one would be interested in finding out how to handle paceless races where it is likely that a presser type will inherit the lead. One of the reasons that I ask is because either in an earlier post here or in the Book, it was said that horses unaccustomed to getting the lead that do, in fact, get the lead and give it up. So is this perhaps a refinement of the early scenarios? Where we rate only the closest closing types?



02-15-2007, 09:41 PM
The 3 I listed are my spot plays that I can apply and win with.

Jim lists 3 of HIS in the new book and to be honest one of the ones HE lists is by far for ME a complete NIGHTMARE.

That’s his “Sprinter in a Route” spot play. When I tell you that I SUCK at these types believe me it is an UNDERSTATEMENT. I HAVE to stay so far away from them it isn’t funny.

Jim is unreal on the other hand. Somehow he “knows” which ones are real and which are not. Nobody is always right but I have seen enough to know he is “dialed in” BIG TIME to them.

Amazing you ask this because TWICE in the last week I have told Hat on the phone about this “sprinter going to route” being by FAR my biggest weakness matching horses!

He’s real cool about it, never talks down to me. Just said “well leave it alone Rich and play to YOUR strenghts.”

So that is what I do.



02-16-2007, 02:27 AM
What does the Hat do with Horses who have MULTIPLE running stlyes? Every once in a while I will see a horse who wins wire to wire, off the early 2 or 3 lengths and win and also close to almost win when back 5 or 6 lengths.



02-16-2007, 08:35 AM
He LOVES these types when they are FAST.

Lots of times he can “see” them winning under different scenarios.

Richie

09-04-2007, 03:36 PM
Deja vu all over again - Yogi

Quote:
Originally Posted by RichieP
This 3rd and last spot play is unreal. Plain and simple.

3)Other than early into THREE matching earlies at the FIRST CALL:

I found this play after working a few races “live” with Jim on the phone during the Keeneland fall meet, etc….

Remember this post??

STILL the most unreal spot play for me at more than generous odds man. Here is a race that ran 10 minutes ago at Philly (a definite Hat track btw).

3 matching earlies at the FIRST call. Look at the screenshot with projected paces laid out to the stretch call.

Hat helpers:
1) NONE of the 3 earlies are fighters. Automatically we MUST jump on this race. Even if we lose it we HAVE to jump in.

2)We do NOT want to be betting 2 POSITION guys in THESE race types. This HAS been posted before.

3) POWER MOVE + Fastest pace of race 1c-2c-sc.

Richie
PS - Bill - LOOK here is YOUR “middle” man. I did the race with Jim and he told me to show you this ok? 5-3-2-2 Positions





09-04-2007, 04:06 PM
Chart

LOOK at the fractions the 1c and 2c and sc were ACTUALLY run in, then look at the Proj pace.

3 calls and we are off a total of ONE tick. Amazing ha?

This projecting pace is KEY and right from the Hat’s 5 step approach.

Simple basic “Hat helper’s” that put food on the table





02-16-2007, 11:33 AM
The 6th Key - VOODOO

“Rich remember the race starts when the gate pops. NOT the 2nd call ok? The race starts when the gate pops.” - Jim Bradshaw

“Rich I NEVER look at one line for a horse” - Jim Bradshaw

“Rich I know the horse is FAST. Once I know this I take bits of this line and bits of another line, combine them in my mind and make him the winner” - Jim Bradshaw

“Rich remember the race starts when the gate pops. NOT the 2nd call, OK? The race starts when the gate pops.” - Jim Bradshaw

“I saw Jimmy hit SEVENTEEN winners in a row Richie. He was on fire.” - Pirco Charter Member Bob Cochran in a phone call conversation with me 4 days ago.

“Rich I NEVER look at one line for a horse.” - Jim Bradshaw

“When I took over the track team Rich I noticed the girl’s biggest problem was they were going out too fast too EARLY.” - Jim Bradshaw talking about coaching his track team

“I made the statement that for every fifth of a second a horse runs too fast early he will lose TWO fifths of a second at the end. Folks thought I was crazy til Huey Mahl got up and proved my statement correct” - Jim Bradshaw

“Jimmy how the heck did you get that horse? We don’t see him at all” - The Ragozin sheet guys after Hat had given them a nice winner after a seminar.

“Whoa. Hold on Jim. You LOVED this horse? Are you serious? This is one of the first guys I threw out of the race. HOW in the world can you see this horse winning?” - RichieP after being exposed for the FIRST time to Jim’s Voodoo- October 2006

“Rich remember the race starts when the gate pops. NOT the 2nd call, OK? The race starts when the gate pops.” - Jim Bradshaw
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

What Jim does has been given all kinds of names with the term “Voodoo” having become by far the most popular.

I don’t pretend to know all of what he “sees” in a race.

Over the past 4 months since being “exposed” to IT however I HAVE noticed PATTERNS that seem to occur over and over and over with him and this thing I have come to call FUNNY STUFF. Here are the PATTERNS.

VOODOO PATTERNS:
1) He NEVER uses one paceline to evaluate a horse. NEVER.

2) He ONLY does weird stuff with FAST horses.

3) He is SUPER FOCUSED on the FIRST CALL in EVERY RACE.

4) With EARLY horses he ALWAYS considers and evaluates the lead it needs to win (its comfort zone) at the FIRST CALL. When he feels a horse will NOT get that comfort TODAY he throws the horse out so fast it is ridiculous. Often these horses are ones who when looking at final time and the like come up very strong and are strongly bet at the windows. He couldn’t care less. The horse is THROWN OUT IMMEDIATELY. Then the race gets RE-EVALUATED as if that horse does NOT exist.

5) Using the fastest pace from the last race of ALL the horses (REGARDLESS of track, distance and even surface): When he sees that this horse has battled through 1c and 2c or made positional and/or beaten length gain he opens the pp’s up ALL the way and will create a “virtual line” in his head combining bits of one race with bits of another. If THAT horse is FAST after doing this AND it also fits the winning RACE SHAPE (early or other than early) THIS horse is his bet.

When I tell you THESE horses are the biggest BOMB winners I have seen since matching horses I am telling the truth. $30.00-$40.00-$50.00-$60.00 etc., etc.

Why do they often pay so big? Because he does NOT carry that last race through to the finish. If the horse does what is posted above through the 1c-2c he could care less if the horse was beaten 20 lengths at the end of the race. What DOES count in his mind is the FIGHTING and or positional gain dealing with ONLY the 1c and 2c. Once he has that in his mind he goes wild with the pp’s and creates a virtual FAST line for the horse.

6) He NEVER uses one paceline to evaluate a horse. NEVER.

7) He is SUPER FOCUSED on the FIRST CALL in EVERY RACE.

8) He ONLY does weird stuff with FAST horses.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here is a race with 2 EARLY horses. Today is a route race. Whom would you pick as the best early?

#2:
1c - 46.2 - on the lead by 1 length
2c - 110.4

#5:
1c - 46.2- on the lead by 1/2 a length
2c - 110.0

What the public and almost everyone would say is the #5 is the best right?

How could anything pick the #2 over the #5? Especially after reading everything written about checking the lengths lead needed at the first call by earlies to win.

Well VOODOO gets the #2 winning the race! Yup that’s right. Want to know how and why?

Because the REAL answer to the above example is: YOU DO NOT HAVE ALL THE INFORMATION NEEDED TO EVALUATE THE 2 HORSES.

What is missing? Want to guess?

The thing missing is the FIRST FRACTION PACE OF RACES. Yes. The info that is furthest LEFT on the past performance line. You know the place where NOBODY looks.

****Important****
VOODOO always looks LEFT on the past performance line. ALWAYS.

Now let’s reexamine the 2 horses and their Power lines inserting the FIRST FRACTION pace of race.

Then let’s make a place at the table because VOODOO will be joining us.

#2:
1fr - 22.4
1c - 46.2 - on lead by 1 length
2c - 110.4

#5:
1fr - 23.1
1c - 46.2 - on lead by 1/2 length

STOP right NOW.

Two Early horses right? When the gate OPENS the 2 has a TWO length lead over the 5 with a 22.4 vs. a 23.1. The 5 is NO longer early. He is BEHIND and CHASING the TRUE BOSS of TODAYS MATCH-UP who is the #2.

This is Voodoo.

Also with a 2 length lead early over the#5 the #2 DOES have his 1 length lead needed to WIN running early. Go slow and you will see it. It just does NOT show up in the pp’s at the 1st call.

This is Voodoo.

The “Voodoo” mind however sees the advantage because the FIRST FRACTION tells the story and NOW the #5 is eliminated IMMEDIATELY from the race. Now the #2 becomes a LONE EARLY and will win the race easily because HE controls the pace EFFORTLESSLY.

This is Voodoo.

You just picked a horse that by looking at the pp’s TRADITIONALLY is FOUR fifths of a second SLOWER than another early at the second call. That is why Jim Bradshaw’s MATCH-UP has NOTHING to do with the 2c. THIS race along with many others has already been decided LONG before in a place where NOBODY looks for key info.

This is Voodoo. Jim “The Hat” Bradshaw’s Voodoo.

The # 2 is the winner - $16.60.

Here is a screenshot of the 2 and 5. WHY include that sprint line for the #2? Because it shows a FIGHT to get the lead in a 21.4, that is why. Who the hell is going to be able to get AHEAD of this horse early in TODAYS race? Certainly NOT the #5 which you will see for yourself after looking at the race on PDF.

This is Voodoo. Jim Bradshaw’s Voodoo.

First the screenshot then I will attach the PDF of the whole race next so you can examine it at your leisure.





02-16-2007, 11:40 AM
The 6th Key - VOODOO


Here is the PDF for the race worked.

This finishes up this thread for me.

I just want to let folks know that the Match-Up is both VERY hard work and at the same time VERY rewarding.

I want to thank the Hat for taking the time he has to teach me HIS way.

I also have to thank him for letting me do this thread from the heart without wanting to see what I wrote ahead of time. It was both cool and yet SCARY at the same time because I had no security blanket in the form of Jim checking everything ahead of time.

NOTE: See Match-up Forum Supplement2.pdf, race 4

Keep WORKING races. Just keep WORKING races.

Soon more races will seem to be cake.

The BEST thing to do at the BEGINNING is to use ONLY past performances.

Richie

NEW MATCH UP GUY
The Hat

There is a new Match-Up Guy, and his name is Richie Pizzicara. I have been working with Rich since May 2006 and he is getting better every day, because he listens and applies what he is taught. You may wonder why I picked Richie to teach the match up, but in reality I didn’t pick Rich, he picked me. Following are excerpts from the first email I received from him:

Hi Jim,

This is Richie from the web site. I want to learn the match up from you. I have tried and am failing miserably. maybe too much contamination involving t-t adjustments, variants etc etc.

I know you are probably very busy but I have to ask in case there is any chance you could help me learn it Jim. Life is too short to not go for things.

Jim can you teach me the Match up? I REALLY want to learn it.

Sincerely,
Richie Pizzicara
New Rochelle, N.Y.

After a few emails we talked on the phone. I decided he was sincere and I took on the task of teaching him the Match-Up. I told Rich he must start with The Five Step Approach and asked him to post it on the web site. Richie worked with The Five Step Approach and we discussed each step, until he understood each step.

During the past eight months Rich has come a long way. His posts on the web site are advanced concepts and should not be applied until The Five Step Approach is mastered. We have worked hundreds of races before the fact, and races I have won, or races Rich has won. We never go over a race that we lost.

Richie never second guesses, or asks “what if,” but learns the concept I am teaching. This is one reason why he has learned and he is one of my best students. He is my pride and joy and best pal.

The Hat

02-21-2007, 06:20 PM
Listen EVERYTHING I showed and laid out is JIM ok? Not me but JIM.

I left it all at the door (ego, my “look” at stuff etc., etc.) when I had a chance to learn it from the beginning.

I also was offered the chance to learn someone else’s version of the Match-Up. Someone supposedly better than Hat. Ummmm thanx but NO thanx.

1) Really FOCUS on learning the 5 step approach ONE step at a time.

2) Really FOCUS on WINNING RACE PATTERNS.

3) Really FOCUS on the FIRST CALL (First FRACTION in ROUTES also).

4) Really ENJOY all the hard work! It is FUN isn’t it?

Jim says I am good at the early stuff in the races (1st call, fighters, matching earlies, etc.).

He is NOW starting to show me PATTERNS of MIDDLE MOVE winning horses and RACE PATTERNS they do well in.

When I am more comfortable with them and have seen them much more I will post a couple of races up and show YOU what he showed ME. Shoot, might be another “SPOT PLAY” situation!

I am going to attach a screenshot of a race Jim showed me from Philly 3 days ago pertaining to this. The #6 is the $13.60 winner.

There IS a methodical PATTERN of TEACHING that Jim does. I “see” that now.



I can’t resist this. Raise surely gets the lead over Royal but loses ground badly both in the 1st and 2d call. Vesak at first looks too slow except when you see that the 2 Es are quitters and the 6 is gaining at both beaten lengths and position at the 2d call.

Too much fun huh?

Paceless races: how does the match up handle this? I also see many races where a horse who only raced on the lead 1 time 8 races ago gets the lead.

Other than a horse who almost always gets the lead, how do you determine the Pace setter? Is it the horse who gets the lead most often, or do you look at the velocity of the horses’ 1st fraction?

PACE-LESS RACE

The following is an example illustrating the process used to project the pace in a paceless race. Once we project the pace, the horses will be matched against this pace to decide if they are contenders.

Find the fastest race at today’s distance and use the race as the projected pace of today’s race. Remember, we will not use the beaten lengths to identify the projected pace.

All of the horses are matched to this pace. Horses that can’t match the pace are not contenders.

The Hat

1. The Lone Early
2. The Beaten Early
3. The Lone Early Presser
4. The Dominant Early among Earlies
5. Hidden Early
6. The Lone Sustained or Late
7. Lone Sprinter in Route 1st time/Dominant Sprinter in a Route
8. A Presser or Sustained horse who got the lead in last race, and won’t get the lead today plus faster than his 1st fraction lead.
9. Tandem Pace of Race final time 1 second slower than projected pace, ELIMINATE entire Tandem (gets rid of lots of horses).
10. ELIMINATE entire fields of multiple matching Earlies.

Say it 1,000 times more, Richie

1. Thinking you understand something, cause it sounds so simple and basic, and can’t get anymore simple and basic, you think, so you say “Yeah, got it. There’s nothing more to. Let’s move on.”
2. Jim “THE HAT” Bradshaw teaching thru his Master student and new Match-Up Guy, RichieP.
3. About halfway thru the “HAT CHECK” forum, and even thru private emails, he kept saying over, and over, and over, and over, and over, AND OVER, “Early or Other than Early. OK?”
4. “Yep.” “Sure.” You’re right.” “Got it.”
5. Then RichieP’s 8 month Match-Up update: the deepest explanation of the inner essence of the Match-Up coupled with Advanced concepts and techniques beyond the 5 step approach.
6. At the end, in summary, what was it? “Early or Other than Early, OK?”
7. After reading the posts and the Match-Up 2 and the other Match-Up books over and over, coupled with RichieP’s newest post, in a mental attempt to simplify and uncomplicate things in my mind, I said, “OOOOhhhhh, yyyyeeeah, E-A-R-L-Y or OTHER T-H-A-N Early.”

So, it’s Santa Anita race, Wednesday, Feburary 28:
4th Race
Next Post 3:06 Off: 2:36 | 6 Furlongs | 4 Year Olds And Up | Maiden Claiming ($25,000 - $22,500) | Purse: $18,660

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
5 Razi’s Star Portillo D A 120 58.80 18.00 8.60
2 Forest Sprite Antongrgi III W 122 3.00 2.40
6 No Mystery to Us Garcia M S 122 4.40

Times in 5ths: :224 :47 :594 1:131
Times in 100ths: :22.80 :47.11 :59.88 1:13.37
Scratched: Hawks and It’s Another Story
Also ran: Atsashanaray, Be Persistent, Sombra, Dazzling Skates, Baby Hooie and C R Deelites
Winning Trainer: Rosales Richard - Owner: Girvin, Russell R. and Shirley
$1 Exacta (5-2) Paid $63.80
$1 Trifecta (5-2-6) Paid $1,140.90
$1 Superfecta (5-2-6-1) Paid $7,520.00
$2 Daily Double (6-5) Paid $217.20 Daily Double Pool $25,917
$1 Pick 3 (2-6-5) 3 Correct Paid $584.50 Pick 3 Pool $54,218
$1 Pick 4 (2-2-6-5) 4 Correct Paid $2,034.60 Pick 4 Pool $135,921
$1 Consolation Pick 3 (2-3-5) Paid $151.50

1. 1st mistake: Did not follow Mr. Bradshaw’s post of “Tip’s for Advanced Handicapping.”
2. Was playing simulcast races before post of 1st race at Santa Anita. Kept falling on my a@#’s with betting. Bankroll getting behind.
3. “Rowdy bunch” kept me losing my concentration.
4. THEN, I hit this race. SPOT PLAY. Lone Early and a Fighter. Bailed me out, Big time.
5. Had it 14 times. ONE HORSE BET.
6. Hit only 2 for 5 the rest of the day, then quit. Still W-A-Y ahead.
7. Mr. Bradshaw was RIGHT. “Spot Play” will turn a bad day to a good day; it CAN bail you out.
1. Unless you are consistently hitting 50%, 60%, 70% betting ONE horse, say “Yep.” “Sure.” “I’ve read it.” “Heard you.” “You’re right.” “I agree.” “Still DON’T Got it.” Re-read, Re-read, then, Re-read the Match-Up books and post again.....and again.......AND AGAIN.
2. Believe me, still have a l-o-o-o-o-ong way to go. But hey, seems like a good start. (P.S. If you are a player who has the Brass and Brains to either augment your living or make a living at the races, please disregard. These comments are for us less talented Hard Learners, who aspire to have the talent and choice to do what you can do,....... someday.)

YES!

Tremendous hit man! $58.80 winner dispels the notion that the Match-Up just gets short priced winners ha?

Keep up the great work!

Jim Bradshaw’s Match-Up - The gift that keeps giving!
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2015, 07:56 PM   #2
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
this is part of a 2.9.2007 thread started by Richie:

2nd Key - Positioning/Beaten Lengths

POSITION - A place or location. The right or appropriate place. - Webster’s

“The 2 biggest reasons why folks can’t learn the Match-Up are
1) Making RULES for everything
2) Getting hung up on a horse’s BEATEN LENGTHS.
I know this to be true because I have been teaching the Match-Up for 20+ years.” - Jim Bradshaw
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Now it is time to begin to see things in a horse’s past performances the way the Hat does.

While we cannot be the Hat and see ALL he “sees” in a race we can use these techniques to become STRONGER matchers. Please watch and remember there are NO rules.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BEATEN LENGTHS:

I want to lay out the few areas where beaten lengths ARE important to the Hat and CAN and SHOULD be used to evaluate both a horse and a potential SPOT PLAY situation.

My original post said that the 6 things listed all come together and work together to become ONE application. Well here it is.

1) When evaluating an EARLY horse (one which we project is going to go wire to wire and can NOT pass horses if he doesn’t get the lead), LOOK at the beaten lengths at the FIRST CALL of his WINNING wire jobs and see if he can get that same lead today based on the early Match-Up. Use the FIRST CALL and compare him with the other earlies (also HERE bring in the position 2-hd and 2-nk guys because they WANT the lead too). If the horse can NOT get the lead he had in his winning line throw the horse out immediately.

2) When a horse loses BOTH position and beaten lengths between the 1st and 2nd calls this is a strong indication THAT pace is one he can NOT handle. If he GAINS position or beaten lengths from 1c to 2c use this as a positive indicator that he can handle the pace.

3) When you FIRST open a race scroll the horses and find the fastest PACE OF RACE from the LAST RACE. Look at the horse(s) and check the position and beaten lengths at 1c AND 2c. If the horse maintains position and/or beaten lengths (NOT talking about pos 8-8 for ex, some looking at races like this will show YOU what is ok) this is a TRIGGER to open the horse’s WHOLE pp’s up and evaluate him off BEST line(s).

You can make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type horse WHEN he FITS the race shape you are projecting to win today (early or other than early).

This fastest pace from the last race also opens the door to do some VOODOO by taking that pace of race and then using other lines’ POSITIONING to create a virtual line that NOBODY at the track can “see.” This is the way the Hat introduced me to his Voodoo for the first time a few months back and it blew my mind. We will do a full race on this when we get to that part.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITIONING:

“We want to bet the horse that is closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race” - Jim Bradshaw

To be HONEST this is very simple and it is the way the Hat decides his horse to bet in EVERY race. It might sound complicated and you think “well what if this appears or what about this factor.”

Relax. Open your mind to new things. WATCH.

They say a picture is worth a thousand words right?

We want to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

The #2 is the winner $9.40:



We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

The #2 is the winner $9.00:



We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

The winner is #5 - $23.60:



We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

The winner is the #2 - $9.60:



We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.
The winner is the #6 - $5.20:



We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.
The winner is the #5 - $12.40:


We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.
Winner is the #6 - $6.20:




02-12-2007, 10:09 AM
2nd Key - Positioning

I spent a LOT of writing on the beaten lengths because I wanted to make sure I covered the only real areas where they come into play in Jim Bradshaw’s Match-Up.

The POSITIONING part is what is messing a lot of folks up and to be HONEST it did to ME also at the start.

What Jim did with me was basically what I have just done. Produce a SERIES of races rapid fire where the picture, when LOOKED AT CLOSELY, tells the whole story.

POSITIONING is actually very SIMPLE. Just

1) RELAX
2) LOOK at what the pictures show
3) RELAX
4) LOOK at what the pictures show

THERE it is.

Jim Bradshaw’s POSITIONING.

Richie
POSITION - A place or location. The right or appropriate place.



02-12-2007, 12:25 PM
Delta 02-07, 7th


Richie:

With respect to the Delta Downs race 7 on 2-07, are you saying that the race is over at the first call because the presser Rufus, 2nd, 1.5L off a 48, is so far ahead of Stratford on Avon, 2nd 1L off a 49.8, EVEN THOUGH the final time adjusts to TWO seconds faster (141.6 vs 143.6 for Rufus)? That is a big WOW. I worked this race last week and I was content in a two horse betting situation to get it down to both of these pressers, but my first impression was that the 2 sec better time made Stratford on Avon a better play.

So what I gather from today’s post is that the Delta 7th race was really OVER at the FIRST call. Rufus, a presser was 1.5L off a 48 1st call and Stratford, another presser was 1L off a 49.8 1st call in an 8.5f race where the projected mile time was 141.40, compared to Rufus’ final time of 143.20. That is a really big WOW that puts an entirely new light on long held “facts.”



02-12-2007, 05:45 PM
You are getting it amigo. I believe the word final time has NOT been used at ALL in anything we have said or done yet.

Now take it a step further and “back up” your positional/pace of race assessment to INCLUDE the FIRST FRACTION (something which fwiw NOBODY does in ROUTES). NOW how do things look to YOU?

“We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race” - The Hat


Can you explain what you mean by “factoring in pace of race.”

Do you mean to look at all the horses’ last race and pick the fastest pace (if possible close to today’s distance), and then pick a horse that will run close to that pace? And don’t look at the lengths that the horse is behind the leader?

I am confused. Do we look at the first 2 calls to find this horse that is close to the pace?



02-13-2007, 08:23 AM
This part of what I wrote:

“3) When you FIRST open a race scroll the horses and find the fastest PACE OF RACE from the LAST RACE. Look at the horse(s) and check the position and beaten lengths at 1c AND 2c. If the horse maintains position and/or beaten lengths (NOT talking about pos 8-8 for ex, some looking at races like this will show YOU what is ok) this is a TRIGGER to open the horse’s WHOLE pp’s up and evaluate him off BEST line (s).

“You can make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type horse WHEN he FITS the race shape you are projecting to win today (early or other than early).”
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

It has NOTHING to do with the 7 screenshots shown.

The “fastest pace from last race” is something Jim taught me to do in EVERY race I open up to work. This is kind of a primer to start seeing things about the race that might reveal a horse that is extremely dangerous from what he shows in his LAST RACE.

1) Battling for the lead from 1c-2c
2) Making a QUICK positional move from 1c-2c, etc., etc.

Note that the last thing written about this is the “possibility to make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type of horse WHEN it fits today’s winning race shape early or other than early”

We do this FIRST when looking at a race. Then if the horse shows NOTHING against the pace we MOVE ON with the working of the race, matching, etc., etc.

If he DOES show positive signs from the race we then have to see if he FITS the race shape that’s gonna win today
a) Early - projecting a wire to wire win
b) Other than early - ALL other races

For example:
Our horse battled gamely from 1c-2c against the fastest pace from last race before collapsing. OK, so we open his pp’s up and grab his fastest line (Power line) to evaluate against the others today.

BUT in today’s race there are 2 or 3 other PURE EARLY runners and our guy is the SAME. If he can NOT pass horses he is identified as EARLY style and with the other earlies in the race (assuming their 1st fractions are at least as fast as our guy), TODAY’S winner is going to be Other than early. Our horse does NOT fit this shape.

That’s why I described this “look” at “the fastest pace from last race” as a good thing to create a SPOT PLAY from. It’s only going to help us in SOME races BUT we have to do the mental work and look at EVERY race to find the ones where it WILL tell us something.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

All this has NOTHING to do with the screen shots shown. The screenshots are simply the horse’s POWER LINES or lines that make then FAST. That’s what we match from and bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-29-2015, 10:01 AM   #3
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,852
Match Up Teachings Compilation Document

Folks, Bill Lyster asked me to move his postings above to this separate thread. I am also providing a link to the extensive compilation document on the 'Hat Check' Matchup Forum important postings (from the Sartin Library, Member Contributions Forum).

Match Up Forum compilation document.

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2015, 04:47 PM   #4
khannamark
improver
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Toronto Ont. Canada
Posts: 21
Thanks Bill and Richie P.

Thanks for your wonderful 8 month post. I came back to the matchup after a couple of years, read your dialogue with Richie PP and was back matching again.
khannamark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2015, 05:02 PM   #5
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
Folks, Bill Lyster asked me to move his postings above to this separate thread. I am also providing a link to the extensive compilation document on the 'Hat Check' Matchup Forum important postings (from the Sartin Library, Member Contributions Forum).

Match Up Forum compilation document.

Ted

For some reason the screen shots originally included in my 8 month update post did not show up when I copied it to this last post. HOWEVER, the link posted by Ted Craven has all of those screen shots embedded in the text. Well worth reading that document, an especially if you are looking at the positioning segment, there are many screen shots used as a teaching tool by Richie P.

good luck this weekend.
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Review of Jim Bradshaw's post on Matchup lone speed Matchup Discussion 5 02-16-2013 11:17 AM
RDSS Learn to Win - Contest Announcement & Discussion Ted Craven Contest Admin Stuff 7 05-28-2012 11:28 AM
MatchUP intuition is "Primary", MatchUP mathematics is "Corollary"/Secondary VoodooFan Matchup Discussion 41 02-27-2011 03:05 PM
THE HAT'S intuition, his voodoo & mathematics VoodooFan Matchup Discussion 0 06-21-2009 02:36 AM
Matchup Webinar - Saturday October 18th 2008 RichieP Matchup Discussion 31 08-08-2008 07:56 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:29 AM.