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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 05-02-2019, 05:36 PM   #1
Mitch44
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Join Date: Nov 2014
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Ky Derby 2019

Ky Derby 2019
# 1 -War of Will - Much improved horse since changing todirt from turf. I would throw out last race as it’s not unusual for a 3 yr. old to throw a bad race, trainer very capable and jock. Has a win over track (CD)and 3 great works since last race so whatever bothered him in last race where he lost action, he appears over it. Ability unknown at this point and M/L of 20-1 for the risk
# 2 Tax - A gelding but don’t know when gelded, only a$40,000 stud fee so no big decision here unless of course he wins the Derby. He has improved greatly in last 3 races, all at 9F and has a 2nd over the track before major improvement in last 3. You have to admire this horse’s consistency in last 3 races with SR over 100 in each and at 9F. His improvement appears to be from Lasix added and after 3 races with Lasix I would not expect much more improvement. Has failed to win twice at the G2 level and steps up in both class and distance here. Not seeing a win here but with his consistency and dis. ability may play a role in the Tri. or SF. No workout over the track but has raced decently over 3 different tracks. Despite placing in last at 9F he ran against a better field of classier horses in last.
# 3 By My Standards - Really blossomed in last 2 races and figured out the game. Last was his best at 9F which he won. His top ability is unknown until after the race. Has a place over the track in the slop with rain expected today. Attractive M/L odds of 20-1 if you like take a shot he continues to improve and wins. After the place horse this field wasn’t much,steps up in competition today. Great horses only do what they have to and hedid win so he becomes an unknown with true ability not exposed at this point.M/L of 20 to 1 for the risk.
# 4 Gray Magician - Placed at 9.5 F in last race on a slow track by at least 10 lengths. Even with Trakus that doesn’t employ a variant and track to track adjustment the race was slow. He can definitely get the distance but so can any horse, its a question of time it takes them to do it.May be better suited for the Belmont at 1 1/2 mile. The purse of his last un-rate able race was $2.5 million. He has to prove the shipping from Meydan curse that has destroyed so many horses. Someday a horse that ran over there will win but its pure guesswork. Did not handle off track in previous attempt. An unknown factor, but with a M/L of 50-1 and expected to go up because of the shipping the risk reward is OK. Toss.
# 5 Improbable – Seems to lost the will to win in last two races and today Baffert takes the blinkers back off. Baffert is 35 % with Blinkers off. His mind seems to be elsewhere and Baffert is trying everything to figure him out. Not a good sign when Baffert is desperately trying to find asolution for as good as he is with 3 yr. and Derby horses. Only a 6-1 M/l for at roubled horse isn’t good. In all fairness this horse ran against a stronger field in last and at a longer distance so I think he really improved. The pace figure for Bris and RDSS on this horse differ on his last race, obviously different adjustments for an off sloppy track. I believe this horse did improve in its last race and may have lost from the off track or left some of his race in the starting gate as he was restless and keyed. He’s not a toss but I don’t like that he has lost two races in a row while only 6-1 on the M/L for race fraught with unknowns, just no risk reward here.
#6 Vekoma – Has won 3 of 4 and last race. Only two raceswith Lasix so can still improve. Has the speed to get away after the break andavoid trouble. Trainer is best with 3rd race after a layoff so he’s just getting cranked up and ran a 59.4 bullet and breezing work for this. Not atoss and 20/1 M/L for a horse that can win (3 of 4) and whose form finally gets tested.
# 7 Maximum Security - This horse shows all the signs of atrue Gr 1 horse and a champion. He has won 4 for 4 and is undefeated. Has won over a sloppy track and won over 4 different distances with his last at 9 F ina Grade 1. He is not an NTL horse and runs S / L and is very rate able with good % Med. Has enough ES to get a position to make his run. He will have torun into a stronger pace in this one than in last where he went unchallenged and loafed on the lead but he appears capable of it. A matcher may throw this one out due to the slow pace at 9 F in last but that could be a mistake. Great horses only due what they have to. Has a great turn of foot and a M/L of 10-1? Has a strange way of running and shows only slow works but who can argue with success? A definite contender and maybe overlooked.
# 8 Tacitus – This horse has won 3 of 4 and Mott isn’t known to be great with FTS otherwise he be 4 of 4. Only two races with Lasix added and eligible to improve in 3rd start with Lasix added. Last race was best at 9F against a fast pace. He stepped up when had to winning 2 G2 races and increased his SR while going a longer distance. And he overcame trouble in last so he’s a fighter. Also has raced well over 4 different tracks and has two workouts over CD. He likes to come from off the pace so he’ll have to get a trip but they all must do that in this big field; however, he does have one ofthe best top riders in big races to get him there in Jose Ortiz. 10-1 M/L is generous. A definite top contender.
# 9 Plus Que Parfait – A tough horse to get a line on. He ran very poorly in his 2nd & 3rd race and his trainer said the horse disliked the track at the FG. I don’t buy that at all as he has raced on four other different tracks and was in the money. After that he spends probably $ 30,000 and ships to Dubai and wins a $2,5 million race. So, I did some research and found that he added Blinkers for his big win in Dubai. What’s funny about this is neither Bris or RDSS indicates the Blinkers were added.Expect to hear an announcement by the track that he’ll race with B on as in his last race, something a crown of 150,00 will pay no attention to. This is important because once a trainer finds the hole card for a horse, he’s likely to improve for 3 races. Sooner or later a foreign horse will win this race.He’ll have to overcome the shipping from Dubai but just may have the constitution for it. A purse of $2.5 million attracts a good field and the show horse was a very consistent horse. At 30-1 M/L and odds that will climb this horse is worth at least a $2 bet. And if you love the Tandem concept (Bob) why not also a $2 bet on Gray Magician. Both have worked nicely since Dubai and I love improving horses, therefore I won’t let these two get away without a small fun bet as insurance.
#10 Cutting Humor – This horse won last at 9F but against a weak field and today takes a huge class step up. One has to take a stand and make some decisions in a race like this with so many unknowns. I’m just not seeing it with him. Pletcher runs a lot of horses in the Derby to keep owners happy and give hope so they keep feeding him expensive horses. I prefer his other horse much more as a contender than this one. Toss and non-contender.
#11 Haikal – This horse is very consistent ITM 5 of 5 with 3wins. His last race may have been the jocks fault as he was left with too much to do on a fast track. Never a flashy worker he does have a bullet and breezing work out on 19 Apr. for this 1/48. Has no WO over the track and has only raced at Aqu. He’ll encounter a fast pace again as in last and I just don’t see any 3rdFR improvement here, if he gets involved earlier it may cost him late. May improve but I’ll take a pass as he has to prove shipping, a new track, going against a tougher field. He’s hard to get a true line on as many in here but M/L of 30-1. I’ll pass. Presently being treated for a foot abscess. Toss.
#12 Scratched
#13 Code of Honor – Stayed close in last race and chased winner when he accelerated but no match for that one while shied late and allout. He’ll have to improve big to catch winner again. He is consistent and not a toss. Jock in last made a tactical error and should have been much closer to pace in last on a very speed favoring track. He may have gotten the place but never was going to beat the winner. He also has problems coming out of the gate which isn’t good in this large field. He has shown ES before which he’ll have to use here to get position but it’ll cost him late in this matchup. Has a sharp bullet WO over a sloppy track at Kee and rain expected. He’s been lightly handled with this in mind. I prefer the winner that beat him in last as he still has much to prove.
#14 Win Win WiN – You have to love the name. I was at TBwhen he won on 19 Jan. and he was impressive. A horse with great speed who rates and can come from off the pace. He has the speed to get a good position early in this large field. His last race is forgivable as he had all kind oftrouble, after being bumped at start was allowed to settle and in stretch had to steady. Loses top jock but that’s more due to trainer connections and who has much better horses. While a lesser jock, it really is all about the horse so don’t let that sway your opinion. I expect a rebound from last and believe this horse has upside. Distance not a problem with sharp WO over track, and has ability to overcome fast pace of race late. M/L 15-1
# 15 Master Fencer – The only data that can be gleamed from his chart is that he can get the distance and is consistent. The negatives no WO over track, no Lasix, must overcome shipping & large field, steps way up in class and retains a foreign jock who is not use to American racing and will probably get the horse in trouble. Toss this one.
#16 Game Winner – Seems to have peaked as a 2-yr. old andlost last two however Baffert is 27% 3rd after a layoff andobviously pointed to this. He has shipped onto CD before and won over thetrack. His works and racing say he is a sound horse but seems to have lost thewill to win and not the same horse as when a 2 yr. old, no longer a fighterOdds don’t warrant the risk for this field. His pace numbers with Bris and RDSScontradict each other in next to last and he may have bounced from that. At 5-1his odds aren’t worth the risk in this field. He is still consistent and 6 of 6W & P Pass on this one. Last was a small field of 6 and stablemate beat himwhich is a frequent Baffert tactic. Just don’t have a good feeling on this one,especially at 5-1.
#17 Roadster – Baffert’s 3rd horse in this race.From a 2 yr. old this horse has developed more than his other two. Has won 3 of4 and stepped up in class and distance to win last. Speed rating aren’t thatgreat but that is deceptive because they have done so much work on the SA trackslowing it down and reducing the hard impact it has on horses to preventbreakdowns. I prefer him over Baffert’s other two because he’s improving andtop potential is unknown. M/L 6-1
#18 Long Range Toddy – This horse has been very consistentexcept last over a sloppy track. Obviously didn’t like the slop and rain isexpected. Was climbing the class ladderstill last. Has excellent connections who think he belongs. At 30-1 he not outof it and could upset. I have an open mind on him but not if the track is off,then he’s a toss.
#19 Spinoff - This horse has increased his SR and went up inclass for each race, an unknown quantity who gets tested today. I think he wasa short horse in last as Pletcher has changed hid approach to the Derby. Thisrace and in the BC races he has tendency to squeeze the lemon dry before thebig race. This horse has been lightly raced and brought up to this race nicely.I believe he was just a short horse in last with an eye on todays prize. Sincethen he has had 4 nice WO’s but not at CD track which is OK as he has racedwell over 4 different tracks. Great horses take their track with them. Connectionsare capable of an upset and really like this horse with his upside andpotential. M/L of 30-1 is way too high IMO. Definite win contender at a price.Made to order with all the unknown factors in this one.
#20 Country House – This horse has only won a Mdn. race andhas failed twice at G2 level and a G1. Also has failed to twice at 9F and todayis asked to go 10F.Off track may help him but won’t be enough. Toss this one.M/L odds of 30-1 should be at least double that.
# 21 Bodexpress – Really? This horse is still an MDN after 5starts. While improving in class and distance this is overly ambitious and bynow may be conditioned to have second-itis even he jumps up to be leading inthe stretch. 30-1 M/L and should be at least twice that. This line maker iscrazy as not all his 30-1 horses are created equal. His line is definitely iscreated to solicit action and betting on all horses.
This is a much tougher race than last year where Justifystood out but no decent odds. Again, we have a bunch of horses who been lightlycampaigned and their true ability hasn’t had a chance to be exposed, severalwhose last race was over an off track, many who have never encountered an offtrack and all have never raced at the distance. Contradiction of pace figures dueto different adjustments. And not a serious betting race. One would be smart tofind something on the undercard but with the rain and heavy turf course eventhat is iffy. Numerous unknown factors exist making this a crapshoot of a race.More money can be won in an everyday common race than this affair and why 3year old races are best played when they sort themselves out later in the year.I’ll look on the undercard for better opportunities.
I would suggest and my approach will be to spread your betover several horses. Instead of betting it all on one. I.e. why bet $10 on onehorse when you can bet 5 good longshot horses for the same $10 and make aprofit if any one of them wins. Additionally, many of horses have good upsideand all longshots are not created equal, even in this race. The odds line forsome of these are way out of line and presents an opportunity.
My contenders and picks are: Small bet longshots andpossible up setters:
# 8 Tacitus 10-1
# 7 Maximum Security 10-1 # 1 War of Will 20-1
# 14 Win Win Win 15-1 # 3 ByMy Standards 20-1
# 19 Spinoff 30-1 # 9Plus Que Parfait 30-1
# 17 Roadster 6-1 # 6Vekoma 20-1

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 05-02-2019 at 05:51 PM.
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Old 05-02-2019, 06:05 PM   #2
Mitch44
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Join Date: Nov 2014
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I got timed out making corrections to my post. When copying from a Word document the words etc. run together along with incorrect spacing. My final summary is:


My contenders and picks are:
# 8 Tacitus 10-1
# 7 Maximum Security 10-1
# 14 Win Win Win 15-1
# 19 Spinoff 30-1
# 17 Roadster 6-1

Small bet longshots and possible up setters:
# 1 War of Will 20-1
# 3 By My Standards 20
# 9 Plus Que Parfait 30-1
# 6 Vekoma 20-1


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 05-02-2019 at 06:11 PM.
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Old 05-02-2019, 10:43 PM   #3
Mr.Pagine
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Fantastic Post

Mitch44,

A great post, and I love Maximum and Tacitus!!

Best of Luck, and Happy Punting!!
Jon
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Old 05-04-2019, 08:54 PM   #4
Mitch44
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A bad beat for sure in this affair. Actually talking about when it rains it pours, this was my 3rd DQ in the last couple of days. It blew a DD & P-3 along with the win bet. One has to pick up immediately and move on to the next challenge.That's the lesson for this one.

My bets based on my analysis was, note: see my post above.


COMPLETED: bee49- 5ee56 CD
#12
$10 Win7, 8, 14none $30.00 $0.00
- $30.00

I ended the day with a profit which is all that count as the Monkey had a nice EX. hit:

COMPLETED: 7370b-2af5f
CD
#10
$5 Exacta7, 10, WT, 13, 14none $20.00 $503.00
+ $483.00

Ended the day:
$522.50$749.60+ $227.10

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 05-04-2019 at 09:03 PM.
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Old 05-04-2019, 09:02 PM   #5
Lt1
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Nice job big guy.
Tim
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