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03-03-2014, 08:01 PM | #21 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Match Up
I know class was not a factor to Jim Bradshaw or Richie and I respect
what the matchers can do here. This still is somewhat of an open thread and there will be RDSS and other software users users who look in, Tim commented that this time he got the winner Bold Distinction, but on Saturday he, nor most of the matchers got # 8 Whisky Tim commented that the distance and track were the same. However the class of these two races was very different. Saturday was a State Bred $5000 claimer. This in its self says a low class race but there is also a restriction that no horse in the race can run if they have won just 1 race in the last 6 months. So we have what could be looked at as 3 negatives, 1. state breds 2. only a 5000 claimer. 3. horse who have not won in 1/2 a year. On Sunday the race was a $25000 claimer it was also restricted to state breds but there was no time restriction. Any state bred horse could enter no matter how many times its won This is a big difference Looking at the winner yesterday Bold Distinction I see a horse that consistently breaks well against OPEN $25000 and claimers. Looking at Whisky I see a horse who has been running against Open 5000 with the non 1-6 month restriction, Saturday Whiskey dropped into state bred competition. My point is if you match up the class of who both Whisky and Bold have been running against its really a very big difference. So yes it was on the same track and distance but these two races are very different. |
03-04-2014, 07:43 AM | #22 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,163
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Although not part of the methodology Whiskey was getting a jockey change to Daniel Centeno who was the last jock to win him see line 10. This a very potent angle which I look for.
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03-04-2014, 08:07 AM | #23 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
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Moderator,
If I am hijacking this thread, please move it for me. I want to talk about the horse Whiskey Tap. From the bottom up on the past performance line: In the horses first 15 races (not shown) the horse has 5 wins from 13 starts in sprints while being 0-2 in routes. Lifetime the horse is 2 for 12 at routes (16% wins) and 5 for 13 (38% wins) in sprints. So where did they enter the horse in the first race showing?, a route. It wins this route. Where does he show up next? a sprint on the turf where the horse shows good early pace and tires slightly at the end to end up 3rd beaten 1 1/4 lengths. What happened in the race or after is not known but this obviously in form horse disappears from the racing scene for over a year and at a different track, Suffolk Downs (which I think is a deeper/slower pace type track.) What do they do with this horse, enter him in 4 routes and only 1 sprint. Trying to get in the mind of the trainer here and failing badly. Or have there been different trainers? It doesn't show the horse getting claimed. Another 2 months off and the horse shows up at Tampa to compete in 5n1-6m which I believe is the bottom claiming price at Tampa. At Suffolk it also competed at the bottom in 4n1-6m. They again run the horse in 2 more route races and the only sprint was at 7 furlongs from the 10 post. Not a good place for a horse who's only wins shown are on the lead. Finally it is back in a sprint and gets a jockey change. To whom? Yes the only jockey in the last 10 races to get a win with this horse, 10 races back and one of its only 2 winning races in its 12 starts at routes. It seems to me that this 8 yr old gelding lost about 2 years of its racing life, off to injury or by poor spotting of races by its trainer/trainers. Bold Distinction otoh, is a 20% winner at S/D, staying at a sprint race but coming from GP to Tampa. Even though the racing conditions read 25K claiming, I think there is a difference in the class of 25k at GP compared to 25k at Tampa. To me this is a slight drop in class. I see the same thing with 7.5k horses, racing at PID, coming to FL to run in their 7.5k races. The PID horse has an edge. There are major training difference's with how each of these horses got to their last starts. I think most players that follow the teaching on this site would not even have Whiskey Tap as a contender off the past performance lines showing. Where Bold Distinction was easy to have as one. |
03-09-2014, 11:34 AM | #24 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
Posts: 334
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DontSayDont, you have my compliments on what I consider a very good post.
While I weight conditional recency heavily in line selection, I share with you the practice of reading each horse's PP from bottom up to see how we got to where we are. Well done.
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Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com |
03-10-2014, 09:58 AM | #25 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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It was a private purchase shown here.
and as you can see , this trainer is very competent in acquiring horses I don't believe RDSS has this info available from my reclamation.
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Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack Last edited by mikesal57; 03-10-2014 at 10:00 AM. |
03-10-2014, 01:53 PM | #26 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 207
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'Tampa Race #6 for 03-01-2014
Appy, I agree with you almost 99% what DontSayDont have to say ref Count #23; previously trained by McKanas Leon J. It was a private purchase and, RDSS does not display in #8 Whiskey Tap past performances. I like Bill V. comments Match Up Count #21 to learn more.
Thanks. DSL |
03-10-2014, 03:10 PM | #27 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 207
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'Tampa Race #6 for 03-01-2014'
mikesal57 good afternoon. How do you display this marking in 'red' showing with #8 Whiskey Tap about the private purchae and, RDSS don't show in its past performances.
I appreciate. DSL |
03-10-2014, 04:54 PM | #28 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Posts: 624
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Quote:
The actual PP is from Brisnet, not RDSS. You can here to order them.
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Terry |
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03-11-2014, 09:03 AM | #29 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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Quote:
1) capture picture in Snag It or the Windows Snipping Tool 2) Open it up in Windows Paint 3) choose colors , thickness of lines, and the shape you want 4) click and drag shape over your spot 5) save
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Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack Last edited by mikesal57; 03-11-2014 at 09:07 AM. |
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03-11-2014, 11:36 AM | #30 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 207
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Tampa #6 03-01-2014
Terry, thank you for your information. Have a nice day.
GS DSL |
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