question

[mikesal57]

heres a races i hit at philly by doing a match-up...i also was using rdss along side ...

now, i always thought the highest tpr rating gave the best readout for every horse...look at horse #10 with his highest TPR rating he shows below half the field under bl/bl...with his third TPR rating, now hes rated 2nd..
it looks like the "perceptor rating " worked here..
I know theres a legit answer for this...so what should I/we do in the future?

thxs mike

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

heres a races i hit at philly by doing a match-up...i also was using rdss along side ...

now, i always thought the highest tpr rating gave the best readout for every horse...look at horse #10 with his highest TPR rating he shows below half the field under bl/bl...with his third TPR rating, now hes rated 2nd..
it looks like the "perceptor rating " worked here..
I know theres a legit answer for this...so what should I/we do in the future?

thxs mike

I tend to use the best perceptor figure of the last few comparable and the best EPR figure as starting points.

Nine times out of ten, the best perceptor fig goes to the horse's own highest SR.

You'll also notice that most of the time, the horse with the highest SR comes out on top in BL/BL, the second highest will take the next spot, and so on.

Projectioned or extracted SRs may alter that slightly, as in your example race.

But personally, I don't like to use the best perceptor fig (within the guideline of comparables) if the race has the horse too far behind at the finish. Not that I'm the expert, your own experience may suggest otherwise.

Likewise goes for the "one hit wonder" whose best perceptor fig is from a race in which a horse scores an 80 while most of the SRs hover 7-8 points lower.

[Bill V.]

Hi Mike

First nice call and win at Philly race 8
I saw your pick in the selections area Once again it was fun rooting home winners

I'm a little confused You are showing a readout from the primary
screen, I don't see TPR numbers. Are you looking at the number for
horse 10 168.56 from line 1 and 167.39 from line 5
These are total energy numbers
TPR numbers are on this screen shot

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Mike

First nice call and win at Philly race 8
I saw your pick in the selections area Once again it was fun rooting home winners

I'm a little confused You are showing a readout from the primary
screen, I don't see TPR numbers. Are you looking at the number for
horse 10 168.56 from line 1 and 167.39 from line 5
These are total energy numbers
TPR numbers are on this screen shot

thxs Bill...i must have said it wrong...when I select a horses paceline ,I always used his best total energy number from his last 3 races..for the #10 it was his last (red) but when I used his 3rd best(yellow) it rated him higher on the bl/bl ...Why is this so?

mike

[Bill V.]

Mike

I hope Ted answers that question

Doc and Ted have explained it to me many times and
like the tall skinny guy from City Slickers about the
VCR clock "I just don't get it" "The cows can do it"


All I can tell you is I dont think I ever saw in the Follow up
to pick the best total energy line

GS
Bill

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Mike

I hope Ted answers that question

Doc and Ted have explained it to me many times and
like the tall skinny guy from City Slickers about the
VCR clock "I just don't get it" "The cows can do it"


All I can tell you is I dont think I ever saw in the Follow up
to pick the best total energy line

GS
Bill

thxs Bill...more for me to read...

mike

[Ted Craven]

Mike,

My view is that this race is an example of: some consistent line selection methods will get some races and lose others, while a different (though equally consistent) method will also win and lose different races, hopefully BOTH profitable, just differently.

BL/BL is a function of the weighted Primary Line Score, e.g. rank 1 counts for more than rank 2, which counts more than ranks 3, 4, 5 (lower don't count). BL/BL doesn't factor in directly Total Energy. Doc's recommended strategy was to pick representative lines based on Speed Rating (Total Energy is almost directly analagous) and his F6 function in Validator which has morphed into Perceptor Total, then eliminate down to top 5 or 6 Total Energy and Primary Line Score (Bill does a good job of explaining this elsewhere) before consulting the BL/BL screen. In otherwords, BL/BL should really only have 5 or 6 lines in it in the end.

The reason Risque's line 5 ranked better than its line 1 on BL/BL (and Perceptor Total) despite the opposite ranks for Total Energy is because the line 5 was an anomaly - not representative of how the horse normally runs, and contained a very high LPR/L/ep, anyway Late component which gave it rank 1 in LPR and Hidden (due to its strong F3). This single 3rd fraction also contributed to a rank 2 CPR and a rank 3 FX, the weighted sum of all these resulting in a strong BL/BL. If you look at this horse's own E/L Graph (see image in Bill's post) you see it almost always distributes its energy Early in sprints, not Late - the race 5 was the exception. Its line 1 is more representative of how it runs (Early), and is its best Total Energy. Even if you whittle the BL/BL down to 5, it achieves only a bunch of rank 3's versus the other likely contenders and thus ranks in the lower half of the BL/BL set. What is odd is that, in considering which of line 1 or 5 to choose according to Perceptor Total, line 1 is only 1.5% worse than line 5 so you'd think it would end up similar when translated to the weighted BL/BL screen. The dance of numbers was misleading this time.



Which is why I thought, at the top that, for me, this would be an example of you win some one way, you win others another way. Using this same method will get you plenty of other winners, just not this way today. Your reasoning to choose line 5 worked great today - congratulations - and consistently applied may also work consistently great. Personally, I would have greater ongoing confidence choosing a higher Total Energy from more recent lines (i.e. the line 1 in this case).

Some people use the TPR+E/L screen to select pacelines, which will get them yet a different set of winners and losers from a consistent approach, and I have seen records from a number of folks who do just this. Doc did not advocate using only the CPR (TPR) number (the sum of EPR+LPR) for paceline selection. Rather, Total Energy in concert with (what has become) Perceptor Total.

Maybe others have additional insight into why line 5 made a consistent choice of how to represent the horse today - I'd love to learn.

Hope this adds some clarity, and again - Mike, you're doing something right lately with the Matchup and these other tools. Congratulations on that hit!

Ted

[mikesal57]

Hi Ted..

Thanks for your incites on the possibilities on how this can happen...even though it went a little over my head ( Bill..can u set the VCR now?..lol) its something in the methodology has taken loops around me in the past.
But what is good that you can get different people using different parts of the program and win!! A recent post from a newbie was using the TPR+ E/L screen for selecting winners ...great...maybe some others like to chip in on how they use RDSS in their handicapping..
The main reason I use RDSS is to somehow figure out layoff, shippers, sprint/routers distance changes when I cant match-up....or should I just skip these races??

Anyway thxs again

mike

[Ted Craven]

Mike,

What I try to do is skip races I don't currently understand or have no basis for confidence in - until I understand them! I used to be ginger about maiden races until some of Tim Y and Bill Lyster's work on improving second call performance have given me more confidence. Similarly, I would be scared off by lots of first time starters or very lightly raced maidens, but now I dip my toe in more (not much yet, though) using workout and toteboard patterns.

I think the adjusted numbers do (in general) a fine job of those categories you cite. The more uncertainly in the mind of the general public, the better odds - and that is the end of the pool to be swimming in for profits, especially if you prove you have reliable numbers.

Mike, if there's any part of what I said above which you want me to explain again in other words or examples, just let me know. I have been known to be confusing (and to myself, too). Pictures can help

Ted

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Mike,


Mike, if there's any part of what I said above which you want me to explain again in other words or examples, just let me know. I have been known to be confusing (and to myself, too). Pictures can help

Ted

thxs...you know this wont be the end

mike