PRX 1st, 2.5.13 - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

For The Lead · 02-18-2013, 02:48 AM

There is an important concept that goes along with the races posted here, where horses coming off their maiden win are facing winners for the first time and that is the concept of CLASS.

When a horse breaks its' maiden and is facing winners for the first time, where does it fit?
If it breaks its' maiden for $15,000, does that mean it can face $15,000 winners?
Here's the answer.
As a "rule of thumb", a horse that just broke its' maiden can successfully compete in races where the claiming price is "HALF" of the claiming price of the maiden race it won. In other words;
Broke its' maiden for $10,000...should be able to compete vs. winners for $5,000
Broke its' maiden for $15,000...should be able to compete vs. winners for $7,500.
Broke its' maiden for $20,000...should be able to compete vs. winners for $10,000.

Now let's apply this concept to the two races posted here.

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Now, replace the claiming price of the horses with a maiden win with HALF of that claiming price.
The #1 horse would be $7,500
The #3 horse would be $5,000
The #4 horse would be $7,500
The #6 horse would be $12,500.
Keep in mind that today's race has a claiming price of $10,000.
On this basis, the #'s 1,3 and 4 are all moving up in class in addition to being among the 10% of horses that broke their maidens and are able to repeat that winning performance the first time against winners.
Compare this to the two horses that have already shown they could be competitive at the $10,000 and $15,000 claiming level.

OK, now let's look at the other race posted here.

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Following the same procedure,
The #2 horse would be $12,500
The #7 horse would be $20,000
The #8 horse would be $12,500
Now this race is a little trickier because it is not a claiming race. It is a Starter Allowance race, however, let's compare these horses
that just broke their maidens to the other horses in the race that have already shown they can be competitive for $25,000 or the same class level as today.
Again, not only are the horses that just broke their maidens among a group of horses that are only successful at repeating that winning performance 1 in 10 times when trying other winners for the first time, but in this case, a couple of them are doubling the class level at which they have "a shot" at being competitive.

This is something to keep in mind when handicapping races with a "NW2L" condition.

lsosa54 · 02-18-2013, 09:40 AM

The one exception I would add is that when the race in which the 3 year old maiden claiming winner next competes in is for "3 year olds only", it can compete at the full claiming price of that race. IE, a MC25000 winner can next compete in a C25000 for "3 year olds only".

I would use the same approach for 4 year old maiden claiming winners going into a "4 year old only race, although 4 year old and older mcl winners are a much rarer occurrence, at least on the larger circuits.

Against 3 and up or 4 and up, I would agree that about half the maiden claiming price is about right as a guideline. If going into a conditional claimer, ex. C12500N2L, which are becoming more popular even on the major circuits, I might loosen up the guideline a bit, but that's just a matter of experience on your circuit.

02-18-2013, 02:48 AM	#11
For The Lead Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,292	Class concept There is an important concept that goes along with the races posted here, where horses coming off their maiden win are facing winners for the first time and that is the concept of CLASS. When a horse breaks its' maiden and is facing winners for the first time, where does it fit? If it breaks its' maiden for $15,000, does that mean it can face $15,000 winners? Here's the answer. As a "rule of thumb", a horse that just broke its' maiden can successfully compete in races where the claiming price is "HALF" of the claiming price of the maiden race it won. In other words; Broke its' maiden for $10,000...should be able to compete vs. winners for $5,000 Broke its' maiden for $15,000...should be able to compete vs. winners for $7,500. Broke its' maiden for $20,000...should be able to compete vs. winners for $10,000. Now let's apply this concept to the two races posted here. Now, replace the claiming price of the horses with a maiden win with HALF of that claiming price. The #1 horse would be $7,500 The #3 horse would be $5,000 The #4 horse would be $7,500 The #6 horse would be $12,500. Keep in mind that today's race has a claiming price of $10,000. On this basis, the #'s 1,3 and 4 are all moving up in class in addition to being among the 10% of horses that broke their maidens and are able to repeat that winning performance the first time against winners. Compare this to the two horses that have already shown they could be competitive at the $10,000 and $15,000 claiming level. OK, now let's look at the other race posted here. Following the same procedure, The #2 horse would be $12,500 The #7 horse would be $20,000 The #8 horse would be $12,500 Now this race is a little trickier because it is not a claiming race. It is a Starter Allowance race, however, let's compare these horses that just broke their maidens to the other horses in the race that have already shown they can be competitive for $25,000 or the same class level as today. Again, not only are the horses that just broke their maidens among a group of horses that are only successful at repeating that winning performance 1 in 10 times when trying other winners for the first time, but in this case, a couple of them are doubling the class level at which they have "a shot" at being competitive. This is something to keep in mind when handicapping races with a "NW2L" condition. __________________ "It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own

02-18-2013, 09:40 AM	#12
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	The one exception I would add is that when the race in which the 3 year old maiden claiming winner next competes in is for "3 year olds only", it can compete at the full claiming price of that race. IE, a MC25000 winner can next compete in a C25000 for "3 year olds only". I would use the same approach for 4 year old maiden claiming winners going into a "4 year old only race, although 4 year old and older mcl winners are a much rarer occurrence, at least on the larger circuits. Against 3 and up or 4 and up, I would agree that about half the maiden claiming price is about right as a guideline. If going into a conditional claimer, ex. C12500N2L, which are becoming more popular even on the major circuits, I might loosen up the guideline a bit, but that's just a matter of experience on your circuit.