Old ideas work

[Hoof 11]

Originally Posted by raceman5

Barb

Your using turn time for your elimination?

Bob

That was my initial reaction.

[raceman5]

like if your using TPP for your contenders u would use that to eliminate horses to get your final four?

Bob

[rmath]

In response to Barbs request I ran the 9th at GP today.
I entered the two best TPP lines from the energy screen and then eliminated down to 4horses on the BL screen. My final 4 were the 1-2-3 &8.
I boxed all four for a dollar in the exacta, and bet the #3 to win and place at 18/1 and the #8 to win, place and show at 99/1.
It ran 1-8 and the exacta paid 156.30 for a dollar and the #8 paid 54.60 to place and 12.60 to show.
If anyone has this race I suggest you run it like Barb says and see if you get the same horses.
Good luck,
Rmath

[barb craven]

Originally Posted by raceman5

Barb

Your using turn time for your elimination?

Bob

I am. I didn't set out to use it. I was looking at all readouts to see what would work for elimination at Saratoga when using the 2 highest TPP lines for each horse. Using TPP for the 2 best lines was Ted's idea. After experimenting with different processes for elimination, I found TT was the only consistent one for Saratoga. When I mentioned this to Ted, he found it sufficiently interesting that he suggested (rather forcefully for him) that I post my findings here. It is working at Saratoga. Whether or not it works at other tracks remains to be seen. I would like it to work at Woodbine, but who knows yet.

This just something I'm experimenting with. If you want to try it, be my guest. If not...don't. I notice rmath had a good win with it at GP today.
cheers Barb

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by barb craven

I am. I didn't set out to use it. I was looking at all readouts to see what would work for elimination at Saratoga when using the 2 highest TPP lines for each horse. Using TPP for the 2 best lines was Ted's idea. After experimenting with different processes for elimination, I found TT was the only consistent one for Saratoga. When I mentioned this to Ted, he found it sufficiently interesting that he suggested (rather forcefully for him) that I post my findings here. It is working at Saratoga. Whether or not it works at other tracks remains to be seen. I would like it to work at Woodbine, but who knows yet.

This just something I'm experimenting with. If you want to try it, be my guest. If not...don't. I notice rmath had a good win with it at GP today.
cheers Barb

It was Tim Y's idea, which he mentioned in the other Turf Racing thread.

[Tim Y]

Let the ODDS board be your elimination platform, NOT a handicapping factor.

Get the top group (total energy is a FAR better final elimination or deceleration as few horses win above 108% or below 98% win on the lawn, or pace of race) then see how the CROWD evaluates them.

This is ultimately a wagering game is it not? Spend MORE time on that side of the equation and stop splitting hairs on the capping side. If two horses present close to the same readouts, always take the longer odds opportunity. Forget about the RANK of each horse as it chases people off good betting chances. Look for the mismatches between YOUR projected probability and the odds board's.

IT is, at times, a difficult task switching between the art of the handicapping challenge (where there is NO ONE WAY TO GO) and the more rigid, cold and calculating RULE based wagering standards of the betting side of the equation. Realize that the national average of favorites winning is around 34-36% which is probability wise in the 2/1 range. IF YOU CANNOT GET at LEAST 2/1 stay away from the public choice as it represents NEGATIVE EXPECTATION.

If an odds on horse ranks top (like Lexie Lou would 95% of the time) either don't waste another moment on the race, or key that one in an exotic. Any more I will not touch at race unless there are at least 7 entrants and the TOP capping horse has something about it that does not create confidence in a wager. ...otherwise, let the suckers bet that one and move on.

Also, where weather makes a difference, chart the speed tendencies of each winner coming INTO the card to see whether a bias is evolving. They come and go so often that one has to be aware of them IN ADVANCE to make them work for you. Look for a REAL Bias not just front runners that figure winning, I mean there have to be faint hearted animals regularly hanging on to be counted a true bias. Often the relative e/l readings versus the standards for the tracks distance will be skewed to the positive side (i.e. average may be +12 for sprints and +20 horses are winning).

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by rmath

In response to Barbs request I ran the 9th at GP today.

It ran 1-8 and the exacta paid 156.30 for a dollar and the #8 paid 54.60 to place and 12.60 to show.

Rmath

I got the splitzacta 1 5 with the 8 early speed (contra energy) based upon the same evaluation.
They are constructed JUST like this often on every card.

[rmath]

At DMR yesterday the 6th was a 5f turf race.
I ended up with 5 contenders because of a tie for 4th on TT.
Had the win place and show in contenders;
Win 85.80
1.00 exacta 322.30
.50 tri 938.80

So far using the guidelines as posted I have had very good results at several different tracks, SAR, GP, DMR, AP to mention a few.

Tim Y suggested using post time odds to separate the final contenders which is what I have been doing.

Normally I do not play Turf races, but after talking to Barb, she convinced to try a few at different tracks. So far I have had some very interesting results.
With prices like these and a hit rate in the 65 to 75% rate I would suggest that we all jump in and play along.
I want to thank Tim Y and Barb C. and Ted for sharing their findings with us.
Rmath

[Latekick]

Originally Posted by rmath

At DMR yesterday the 6th was a 5f turf race.
I ended up with 5 contenders because of a tie for 4th on TT.
Had the win place and show in contenders;
Win 85.80
1.00 exacta 322.30
.50 tri 938.80

So far using the guidelines as posted I have had very good results at several different tracks, SAR, GP, DMR, AP to mention a few.

Tim Y suggested using post time odds to separate the final contenders which is what I have been doing.

Normally I do not play Turf races, but after talking to Barb, she convinced to try a few at different tracks. So far I have had some very interesting results.
With prices like these and a hit rate in the 65 to 75% rate I would suggest that we all jump in and play along.
I want to thank Tim Y and Barb C. and Ted for sharing their findings with us.
Rmath

rmath would you mind posting your readouts and lines you selected for each horse in this race? I enter the horses best TPP line 3 back and it comes out dead last on every readout in RDSS, so i am curious as to how it ranked well in your readouts.

[rmath]

[IMG]DMR6th[/IMG]