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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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10-30-2018, 08:21 AM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Yoshida is an unknown in this race and true ability won't be known until after the race. Same for Catholic Boy. Neither is a toss and this is one tough race. If either one is bet the risk reward must be there. These aren't the only horses that are UNKNOWN FACTORS in this race.
Sartin would recommend this race be passed. I'd say be cautious with your bank roll and definitely get risk reward for whoever you bet. A favorite at low odds in this race makes no sense and every horse can be beaten. Much speed in this one. Mitch44 |
11-01-2018, 07:57 AM | #12 |
Conley
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Fergus, Canada
Posts: 1,777
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Hey everyone. If you are on Pace Advantage, can you be ever so kind to post in my thread “2018 official Breeders cup selections thread” and post some picks in there? I want it to be a popular thread since this is the best 2 days in racing! Thanks if you do post in there. I will post in there too of course!
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11-01-2018, 09:13 AM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Unknown factors
in evaluating a race, if there are too many unknown factors, it does behooves one to pass the race. Every entrant should have 3 North American pace lines.
IMO, this BC Classic race has two entrants that will be tough to evaluate= John Gosden's Roaring Lion and Thunder Snow who has only one North American pace line. Roaring Lion is a multiple Group One winner from Europe and is trained by a former Southern California trainer, John Gosden. If one decides to play this race; one has to evaluate if Roaring Lion is another Giant Causeway or Sahkee who both transformed their turf form and ran very well on dirt on their first attempt but both lost to Tiznow who won the Classic in successive years. I will always remember Gosden's statement/opinion where he said that the last furlong that is run in most major French race course and several in England are run uphill. As a rule of thumb, you add two furlongs to the distances that were run. Example 6 Furlongs in French turf courses equates to 8 Furlongs or one mile. One mile from France equates to running 10 Furlongs in US tracks; usually. The favorite, Accelerate and both Catholic Boy and Yoshida are not my top contenders in this match-up. Good skills |
11-01-2018, 09:16 AM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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From Doc Sartin
Excerpt from Howard Sartin's "The Dynamics of Incremental Velocity and Energy Exertion"
Last edited by lone speed; 11-01-2018 at 09:16 AM. Reason: spelling |
11-01-2018, 10:53 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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a good post by Tim Y
IMO, the above quote by Tim Y is right on...... |
11-03-2018, 01:50 AM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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My contenders are :
Mendelssohn and Thunder Snow from the Jockey Club Gold Cup- the winner Discreet Lover aimed for the Jockey Club Gold Cup and won the race with a default trip far away from the "hot pace" set by Diversify. I used the pace line up to the mile marker. Mind Your Biscuits- I used the Met Mile but I adjusted for the one turn mile race from Belmont race track. Accelerate-I used its best paceline. 10th paceline back West Coast- I used the 3rd paceline back -I gotta believe that Baffert ran out of time with West Coast and maybe is aiming for the $12 million Pegasus Race in Jan 2019. My readouts on Thoromation: Good skills |
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