help

[Bill V.]

Hi guys

Its great to be back. I actually am sitting at my desk
working races from Philly park I feel very good about myself I made the
tough decision and I respect and love those people who work hard to help me
make correct decisions

I have retired from my landscapping part time /good deed job

I'm ready to get serious !!!

I have a few questions I need some help and I appreciate
any time you can give me

Proplem 1

I want to bet 5% of my bank 2 horse win bets or place or show bets on 1 horse

Betting this way I win about 13 races every 20 and average
about $100 for every $80 I bet
This is informal spot recorded on 20 race cycles but its been consistant
since 1997

Is 5% too much for me to bet ??

Bill

[JimG]

Hi Bill,

What do your records indicate is your longest losing streak betting in this manner? That will probably help you to answer your own question.

How often do you intend to adjust your bet given a pct? Every race, daily, weekly, monthly? That could also play into your decision regarding pct. to bet.

Let it Ride.

Jim

[Bill V.]

Hi Jim

worst case .. after every 3 consecutive losses I stop for awhile
and just read follow ups, when I start again generally I might go 1 more loss
but 90 percent of the time I pick up again with wins
Longest losing stresks are 5 races

I had planned on betting 5% of bank based on each race
based on the results of the previous race

For example start with $200
bet 10 loss now bank is $190
next bet $9 $5 low odds $4.00 High odds
the $4.00 bet wins - $11.00 horse x 2 =$22.00
$190 bank-$9 =$181.00 + 22.00= $203.00 new bank
next bet 5% of $203 or $10.00 $6.00 on low odds $4.00 on high odds
Do you think ths will work for me ?

He gets $75.00 his blood is rare!!!

Bill

[JimG]

Bill,

I think 5% will be okay adjusted after each race based on the info you provided. I tend to be more of a long shot player so 2-3% of bank is as high as I go.

Best of luck. Let us know how it's going.

Jim

[For The Lead]

Hello Bill,

I'm just going to throw my 2 cents in here, but JimG already has you on the right path.

There is this nasty thing called "Element of Ruin". Once you know what that is, you know what you have to do. JimG put you on the right path by asking how long your losing streaks are. If your bankroll and betting pattern can sustain the number of loses your records indicate you may encounter, without going broke, then you are in a safe zone. If it can't, it's time to rethink your bet amount and/or starting bankroll.

Good luck!

[gl45]

What are the average payoff of win bets, and the average payoff of place and show bets. If you know your averages, you can correctly bet your bankroll %.

[Bill V.]

amici

I have this

win bets ave $9.60
place bets $3.98
show bets $3.75

"Non abbiamo timore che lo shouldst del thou perda Uno chi l'amore eterno potrebbe scegliere; Ma ne'er questo abuso di tolleranza, Non cadiamo, non cadiamo."

Bill

[shoeless]

Bill, Your very consistant I feel picking winners so unless it's a longshot I wouldnt screw around with place and show.I feel it would be wiser to use that money for exacta play.Jeff

[gl45]

use Kelly and with 65% winning on a 20 races cycle you will do fine

[gl45]

using a random number generator %5 bet with a 65% ( 13 wins out of 20 races) winners constantly since 1997 as you said, you should have retired long time ago.