Help with fractions of a race

[raceman5]

Tom do u go about doing that. I have the synergy program on a thumb drive that i use on my old netbook computer because it won't work in windows 10. How do u create a spread sheet

[MJS6916]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Thank you for the suggestions but I am really wanting to try and create my own pars for a few racetracks and only tracks that have a dirt surface and no all weather/turf races for now

Dave Schwartz has talked to me about the subject of trying to create your own speed figures and he also suggested taking the hassle of making your own by purchasing his own pars which looks pretty detailed

And for the Brisnet and Trackmaster Pars I do use them sometimes but I later learned you can get try and make your own speed figures to see how well they compare to the big boys (DRF/Brisnet/TimeformUS?/Trackmaster)

I'm certain you'll do better versus DRF (BeyerSF) for sure.

Those guys lost their way more than 2 decades ago.

Beyer did much better on his own when he was cutting his teeth as
a professional handicapper versus what this crew has done.

I don't believe it will take you very long to see that.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

What I'm saying is that concept can give you that understanding and can save much valuable time and expense.

I haven't read Swartz's concept to Pars but I'm sure he got it from Beyer or adapted it from Beyer. I would read both their books to see if their the same or an improvement. I do know Swartz is very good with collection of data and computers where as Beyer not so much. Plus at the time of Beyer, computers weren't that prolific and were in their infancy as compared to Swartz's work.

Gordan Pine has been know for years for his accuracy in Pars. Which is best? I have no idea. Beyers' is selling SR's to the DRF whereas Pine and Swartz are selling Pars. They all have an interest and will swear theirs in the best s-it since slice bread.

I myself think the Bris SP are better than the Beyer numbers because their computer generated where as the Beyer is made by 7 or so other people and that's too many fingers in the pie for good results,inconsistent application of the process.

Before embarking on this journey you should do a study on how any SR, which are derived from Pars hold up against other Factors such as Total Energy, CR BLBL etc. What was its ranking verses a SR such as a Beyer or the TrackMaster SR that's within the program. Personally I don't even look at the TrachMaster SR within the RDSS program.


Pars are one dimensional in that they only consider final time, Pace and the POR has a direct influence on that final time. Even Beyer saw the flaw in just final time after Sartin made him aware of it.

Pars also exist for incremental time as well as final time but to my knowledge aren't incorporated in any SR. SR are based on final time only. Sartin said it best when he said horses don't read Pars or know how fast their suppose to run. The best Pars are made up from the horses within the race or Match Up, they also represent the present, not something earned a year ago.


What I'm saying is that before taking on this task, do some studies and you may find some things more proficient. And even a better mousetrap of those, if found, would be a more worthwhile endeavor.

Mitch44

Sorry for sounding negative it's just that I really want to create speed figures/pars but I know the consequences if I were to do this full time

I am in the talks of asking Dave if he would recommend using his pars for speed figures and creating my own off of his numbers?

Kinda cheating if I were to do that but at least that would take pretty well 90% of the work off my back lol

It's pretty hefty price but I am starting a part-time job (maybe full time shortly) as a server at my grandma's/cousins retirement home so I would see how much I could make to purchase his pars

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by MJS6916

I'm certain you'll do better versus DRF (BeyerSF) for sure.

Those guys lost their way more than 2 decades ago.

Beyer did much better on his own when he was cutting his teeth as
a professional handicapper versus what this crew has done.

I don't believe it will take you very long to see that.

Yes that is why I want to show people that I could create pars and speed figures for my own use and when I was fully confident I could sell them to the public (and no secret formula included )

[tom]

Originally Posted by raceman5

Tom do u go about doing that. I have the synergy program on a thumb drive that i use on my old netbook computer because it won't work in windows 10. How do u create a spread sheet

I use Excel and just use the formula from Tom Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping.

If you have Synergy, try converting the TF times to fifths, ie, 46.67 = 46-3/5

[rdiam]

Virtually EVERYONE in the pari-mutuel pool is using some sort of speed figures. Beyers and Equibase are out there for all to see. Timeform and HTR use a combined pace/speed number. Ragozin and Thorograph use a performance figure to include wind and path. NONE of them will show a profit by themselves. You will almost always end up on the chalk, since there is little to differentiate them.

Instead of creating a better mousetrap where there will be little demand, why don't you focus your efforts on creating a figure you expect the horse to run today? This can be based on form cycles (like sheet patterns), pace match-ups, RDSS, or something else that NO ONE else is currently using. If you are successful, you can then decide to use the information to bet yourself, or if you want to spend a lot of time marketing, try to sell the information to a dwindling audience. I admire your passion, but you are wasting a lot of time and energy trying to re-invent the wheel. Good luck.

Richard

[Mitch44]

"if you want to spend a lot of time marketing, try to sell the information to a dwindling audience." No matter what business your in marketing is a necessity, if the product is good that lessens but never stops.

The game is forever changing and the customers are dwindling however the game has adapted many times before and I would expect that ship to right itself again and survive.

Human nature wants the best and gravitate towards it. A better mousetrap will draw business and a following. If that fails you will have created an edge for yourself over the masses for profit.

Richard is correct about the competition being intense however they all appear to be making money or they would not exist.

The shortcut to all this is to understand the concept of how derived, the difference between products and than coming up with something that improves the existing SR's. A high bar to overcome but not impossible.

Mitch44

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

"if you want to spend a lot of time marketing, try to sell the information to a dwindling audience." No matter what business you in marketing is a necessity, if the product is good that lessens but never stops.

The game is forever changing and the customers are dwindling however the game has adapted many times before and I would expect that ship to right itself again and survive.

Human nature wants the best and gravitates towards it. A better mousetrap will draw business and a following. If that fails you will have created an edge for yourself over the masses for profit.

Richard is correct about the competition being intense however they all appear to be making money or they would not exist.

The shortcut to all this is to understand the concept of how derived, the difference between products, and then coming up with something that improves the existing SR's. A high bar to overcome but not impossible.

Mitch44

The saying goes "If you want something so badly you will get it" and that is what I have been repeating in my head ever since the day I heard that

Not saying you guys or wrong or anything just that I would love to have a horse racing product of my own that others can purchase so they can win too!

It makes some time and yes it will take some failures but I know if I can keep grinding I can make my own reliable speed figures and pars for the general racing public

I will let everyone know how I make out

[Mitch44]

I understand Conley. Your young and have lots of time to succeed. Go for it and best of luck.


Mitch44

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

I understand Conley. Your young and have lots of time to succeed. Go for it and best of luck.


Mitch44

Thank you mitch I will let you and everyone else know how I am doing!