Lost faith in Spec - Pace and Cap

jms62 · 06-29-2006, 05:43 AM

Sorry guys.. I'm about done with this software. Since the trackmaster changes my performance has been poor. It would be hard for me to believe that anyone is having much success with the software (Except Tim of course

because my use is pretty standard to what Bill has been showing on the thread.. WHich is basically what doc has been teaching. Any suggestions or should I just go back to my Energy based home grown spreadsheet.

RichieP · 06-29-2006, 08:09 AM

Hi Jim,
My feedback is more of a question.

Are you wagering / working more than 1 track?

1) If yes is there one track where results are much better than others?

2) Is there a certain DISTANCE where your results are better than others?

Here are a few tracks where the environment is fairly stable as far as not too many shipper issues and also no ONE TURN routes which cause nothing but problems at tracks like Belmont with speed ratings MUCH higher than their 2 turn counterparts.

1) Philly
2) Hollywood
3) Mountaineer
4) Finger Lakes

Maybe a change of scenery as far as tracks might help.

I hope this helps
Rich

Ted Craven · 06-29-2006, 11:40 AM

Jim,

Can you elaborate any? For example, do you observe that Spec more regularly than before, fails to get the winner among 5 contenders measured, say, by Total Perceptor I, or BLBL? Or if not, supplementary factors don't help to give context as to which contenders to bet? Model info not pointing towards consistent recent factors by track/surface/distances?

Would you care to share several races (just identify them) where you found Spec readouts inscrutable? Perhaps others had different insight or techniques which may help.

Which Spec version do you use? Remember that after Feb 1, the entire DTV is applied to adjusted times, and in cases where this variant is large, the resulting adjustment may be to severe. (Spec150 users can reset to using half the DTV again). In all Spec versions, you can use the manual adjust screen to mitigate high DTVs (if that is one of the problems).

Aside from the foregoing, and from recent conversations with Equibase/TrackMaster personnel, I can think of no way that Feb 1 changes cause Speculator to perform better or worse than it did before.

But, any details you care to share are welcomed.

yours,

Ted

jms62 · 06-29-2006, 12:12 PM

[QUOTE=Ted Craven]Jim,

Can you elaborate any?

Ted,

I am using SPECPA and speaking of my performance before the changes to the data until now. My performance is way down. From reading this board I get the feel that I am not alone. I even recall you stating that this is the first time in awhile that you missed the winners of each Triple crown race.. If your measure of success is to get the winner amongst the TOP 5 than I am hitting roughly 65-70%. But I don't bet on 5 horses... Sorry for the VENT but I am frustrated as hell... Time to start over with the absolute basics and analyze WHAT I AM DOING DIFFERENT instead of blaming the Trackmaster changes. Richies post was excellent in that regard. I think I've lost my way a bit. Sorry for the VENT.

dugoutgold · 06-29-2006, 01:19 PM

Jms62, I can understand your specpa woes here also. To me the problem is 3 fold. 1, the trkmaster srs have thier issues as we all know, 2, a prob that has to always been is conflicking readouts in the program ( a note here and something I have yet to do, shame on me here is start modeling similar to what Rich did on his post on mountianer) 3, times have changed in racing. So many non winners of 2 with lightly raced horses who wake up and run better than our readouts show, this also applys even to the derby and other races.
Also with trainers moving their entires all over the class/dirt/turf map determining current form is tuff also. These days in order to protect my working capital, I do much more pick and choosing mostly in races for the older horses. Again since the majority of races these days are carded for NW2L types the amount of playing I do is cut down but the win percentages are better. Hope this helps you somewhat.
Back to reading the help file onAodds98 here, wow this program was way ahead of its time

) Terrific format!

Best Doug

06-29-2006, 05:43 AM	#1
jms62 Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 798	Lost faith in Spec Sorry guys.. I'm about done with this software. Since the trackmaster changes my performance has been poor. It would be hard for me to believe that anyone is having much success with the software (Except Tim of course because my use is pretty standard to what Bill has been showing on the thread.. WHich is basically what doc has been teaching. Any suggestions or should I just go back to my Energy based home grown spreadsheet.

06-29-2006, 08:09 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Hi Jim, My feedback is more of a question. Are you wagering / working more than 1 track? 1) If yes is there one track where results are much better than others? 2) Is there a certain DISTANCE where your results are better than others? Here are a few tracks where the environment is fairly stable as far as not too many shipper issues and also no ONE TURN routes which cause nothing but problems at tracks like Belmont with speed ratings MUCH higher than their 2 turn counterparts. 1) Philly 2) Hollywood 3) Mountaineer 4) Finger Lakes Maybe a change of scenery as far as tracks might help. I hope this helps Rich __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

06-29-2006, 11:40 AM	#3
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	Jim, Can you elaborate any? For example, do you observe that Spec more regularly than before, fails to get the winner among 5 contenders measured, say, by Total Perceptor I, or BLBL? Or if not, supplementary factors don't help to give context as to which contenders to bet? Model info not pointing towards consistent recent factors by track/surface/distances? Would you care to share several races (just identify them) where you found Spec readouts inscrutable? Perhaps others had different insight or techniques which may help. Which Spec version do you use? Remember that after Feb 1, the entire DTV is applied to adjusted times, and in cases where this variant is large, the resulting adjustment may be to severe. (Spec150 users can reset to using half the DTV again). In all Spec versions, you can use the manual adjust screen to mitigate high DTVs (if that is one of the problems). Aside from the foregoing, and from recent conversations with Equibase/TrackMaster personnel, I can think of no way that Feb 1 changes cause Speculator to perform better or worse than it did before. But, any details you care to share are welcomed. yours, Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 06-29-2006 at 11:42 AM.

06-29-2006, 01:19 PM	#5
dugoutgold Grade 1 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 206	Jms62, I can understand your specpa woes here also. To me the problem is 3 fold. 1, the trkmaster srs have thier issues as we all know, 2, a prob that has to always been is conflicking readouts in the program ( a note here and something I have yet to do, shame on me here is start modeling similar to what Rich did on his post on mountianer) 3, times have changed in racing. So many non winners of 2 with lightly raced horses who wake up and run better than our readouts show, this also applys even to the derby and other races. Also with trainers moving their entires all over the class/dirt/turf map determining current form is tuff also. These days in order to protect my working capital, I do much more pick and choosing mostly in races for the older horses. Again since the majority of races these days are carded for NW2L types the amount of playing I do is cut down but the win percentages are better. Hope this helps you somewhat. Back to reading the help file onAodds98 here, wow this program was way ahead of its time) Terrific format! Best Doug

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06-29-2006, 12:12 PM	#4
jms62 Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 798	[QUOTE=Ted Craven]Jim, Can you elaborate any? Ted, I am using SPECPA and speaking of my performance before the changes to the data until now. My performance is way down. From reading this board I get the feel that I am not alone. I even recall you stating that this is the first time in awhile that you missed the winners of each Triple crown race.. If your measure of success is to get the winner amongst the TOP 5 than I am hitting roughly 65-70%. But I don't bet on 5 horses... Sorry for the VENT but I am frustrated as hell... Time to start over with the absolute basics and analyze WHAT I AM DOING DIFFERENT instead of blaming the Trackmaster changes. Richies post was excellent in that regard. I think I've lost my way a bit. Sorry for the VENT.