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2008 Breeders' Cup 2008 |
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10-23-2008, 08:36 AM | #11 |
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
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Thanks for the look, Charlie. I definitely think Indian is beatable but I'm more looking for a horse that is G1 proven, as these are todays conditions. BTW, Indyanne may scratch out due to a fever so that will alter the pace scenario a bit.
For me and me alone, La Tee has been close in some G3's but her last win came at N2X on the turf down the hill. Tiz El won a G3 by a nk, was close in another, but failed to win two restricted handicaps. I think I'm fooling myself if I even stick these 2 horses in the computer, since they have no final time or pace advantages, and have not shown they can compete under G1, best in the world conditions. Dearest Trickski is another story. She beat 3yo in the La Brea but has now beaten older 3 out of 4 and won a G1 race at 7F. She would be quite a story, having been a $10,000 restricted claimer at Lone Star in April 2007 - you almost have to root for her! I still don't think she's fast enough but opinions like mine may give others value on her. Total energy numbers can be deceiving. I would have to think Indian's win in the Santa Ynez on the previous SA poly would give you a huge total energy figure running 7f in 119.4 setting that ridiculous pace. Last edited by lsosa54; 10-23-2008 at 08:53 AM. |
10-23-2008, 08:44 AM | #12 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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I'd tend to rely on software here than my Match Up as we've got horses shipping from all over place and in nearly readout Tiz Elemental pops up
Got a couple of Tandem loses to others, but think i may take my chance win, place and show with it at decent odds here
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 10-23-2008 at 08:47 AM. |
10-23-2008, 09:49 AM | #13 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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Indian Blessing's Line 7 looks a bit weird to me Lou
22.3 - 43.8 - 107.1 - 119.9 If she repeats that it's all over innit
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10-23-2008, 10:02 AM | #14 |
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Join Date: May 2008
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Some Fast Fractions Posted by other horses around that time too
Help coming from somewhere
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10-23-2008, 10:24 AM | #15 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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When you think about it
If horses are running that hard there's no wonder Cal gets high attrition Gotta slow em down a bit somehow and hopefully this new surface will help
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 10-23-2008 at 10:31 AM. |
10-23-2008, 01:14 PM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 798
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They were having major problems with the track at Santa Anita during that period. Horses were putting in world record times.. I have to say this race is absolutely brutal... I can make a case for 7 horses
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10-23-2008, 01:16 PM | #17 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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Yes JMS
Wasn't that when this Pro-Ride fella was called in??
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" |
10-23-2008, 01:32 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 798
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10-24-2008, 05:53 AM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Raw
Best Total energy - #5 Indian Blessing Best Hidden energy - #12 Ventura Best FX - #3 Intangaroo Best E/Ep - # 5 Indian Blessing Best L/ep - #12 Ventura Best F3+Total Pace - #12 Ventura Win contenders: #3 - Intangaroo #5 - Indian Blessing #12- Ventura Best of luck to all
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10-24-2008, 10:15 AM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,877
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If you are using RDSS (or Val4 or Spec160) I would be very cautious about accepting DMR 2008 lines when using the 50% DTV adjustment, and expecting that they compare well to lines from other tracks, distances and surfaces. All 2008 DMR poly lines are about 30 DTV points faster than norm (i.e. the 2007 norm) thus, the pars for the current DMR poly surface distances should really be about 30 points faster (in which case, the DTVs would be around 0). We won't get this change from TrackMaster until January's re-normalization of all ITVs for 2008.
Try this in RDSS: in the Configure window, change the DTV % to 100 (i.e. accept ALL of the DTV adjutment, not jut the normal 50% of it). For the DMR 2008 lines with high negative numbers (i.e. FASTER than norm), the final and incremental times are slowed down by the DTV. If you permit them to be slowed down by ALL of the DTV and not just HALF of it, the times will end up much slower, Total Energies will be lower and horses ranked off those DMR lines will rank worse. This exercise of changing the DTV% to 100 will prove that (unless you're only comparing DMR 2008 lines to each other) they will always be overrated compared to other tracks. So, if you accept this, then switch back to the default DTV% (50%) and pick different lines for those horses which look good only from DMR, or pick not their best DMR line. That said, it still doesn't help Indian Blessing much, by my readouts. For a price, I'm leaning towards OTEs Zaftig and Tiz Elemental (way too many NTL Earlies here, but no-one I can see who can steal it). I would not leave Indian Blessing out of exotics. The race is still a mish-mash and way too uncertain to bet it if I didn't have to (which I don't...) Good luck! Ted
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