Paceline selection

[Charlie D]

A mess AA innit, no wonder it paid $40


I'm not seeing it i'm afraid, maybe someone else can

[AAcoolguy]

if I recall correctly the paceline selector chose the first line as "best", and it looks like it chose that only because of the SR. It didn't matter though because for some reason that I don't remember I didn't include this horse in my contenders. After I went back and included him in the mix he did come up in the top four and with the odds he went off at should have been a bet.
I know we can't win 'em all.

Richard.

[shoeless]

AA,Do yourself a favor and if you want to learn how to pick pacelines use a racing form,your not going to get good at it by doing it with a computer.You should pick your contenders and pacelines before you turn the computer on,no F6 button is better then what you have upstairs.

possible reading

Modern Pace Handicapping-Brohammer

Handicapping Magic- Pizzolla

Calibration Handicapping Next Level-Lehane[his red scan technique is good]


I agree with Pino about Talubot which is the best but may be hard to come up.

IM ONLY REFERRING HERE TO PACELINE SELECTION.Jeff

[Bill V.]

Hi aa and guys

I just did the race. I did not do it before
I picked my lines the same way I have for years
I would have lost the race because I would have bet the 3 and the 4
Here are my thoughts on each horse

Del Mar Pacelines race 1 Monday 7/21 Race class 94 Distance 7.0


Red horse # 2 Kiss My Crown

I would use line 2 80 Speed Rating 8.0 distance 98 Race class
why not line 1 ? Turf Line
why not line 3 ? Distance


Green horse # 6 Uxmal
I would use the last line 87 speed rating 6.0 distance 91 race class
why not line 2 5.5 distance lost ground in a shorter race
Why not line 3 6.0 distance 82 speed rating 96 Race class
I could use this line if I don't believe the best ever 87
I will make a note in my mind that this horse has two good lines in the
best of last three


Yellow Horse # 4 Romance is Zenon
I used both line 1 and line 2 88 speed ratings
92 and 93 Race class
I will wait till I pick lines for the rest of the field
Then I will use the line ranked best on the preceptor screen
Why not line 3 8.5 distance and 78 speed rating

Now the rest of the field

Horse 1
Line 3 83 speed rating 88 Race class 6.5 distance
I went 3 back to its best ever 83 only because its the # 1 APV horse
why not line 1 ? 8.5 distance and slow 75 speed rating
why not line 2 ? very slow time at 6.0 since this is a 7.0 distance race
I will give line 3 at 6.5 a chance

Horse 3 line 2 89 speed rating 93 Race class 7.0 distance
Why not line 1 since this is the # 2 APV horse I will excuse the
last line at a higher 98 race class I also see a 85 and 87 speed rating
down in this horse past so this is a fast horse
why not line 3 ?Only a 80 speed rating and at 6.0 and at Bay Meadows
This horse runs better at 6.5 and at 7.0 and on the poly tracks

Horse 5 No line
This is a turf horse It shows nothing on dirt or poly near the fast horse
in this race except for its maiden claiming win
why not line 1, 2, 3, all turf lines
line 4 is on the poly but only a 81 speed rating ?
This horse is not in the top 3 apv or CR

Horse 7

Line 1 85 speed rating 7.0 distance 93 Race class
This is a poor apv and Cr horse Basically I use the last line on these types
going through the whole field The question about this line makes sense
If this was line 2 or 3 and the horse was a layoff horse
I would not enter a line but I will use it if its the last line

My calculations for this race
first off the preceptor ranked line 2 better than line 1 so out goes line 1

here are the readouts
since the 2 is rated at the bottom and is line is from 8.0 I will take it out

[Charlie D]

Using your contenders Bill

Contender - fair odds

3 - 3.14
4 - 3.67
6 - 4.4
7 - 7.33
1 - 22.0

[Bill V.]

Yes I am sure the 7 is a good bet
but Its rated 4th off its best ever race
Its very close I guess I should look at the line score
I would have lost this one
like what usually happens 7 or 8 times every 20 race cycle

I catch enough of these 4th and 5th rated bombs over time
that have better readouts like in LP FX and VDC They make
my normal 20 race cycles the better profitable ones

Thanks for looking at my thoughts
Bill

[Jonathan Steele]

"Sometimes however, the aberrant (high) number will do the trick."



Jon

[Charlie D]

I would have lost it Bill too, but thought it was interesting that you had the race nailed

Some decent wager construction would have paid well here wouldn't it ~ Food for thought


And thanks for posting your thoughts

[Bill V.]

I wish I had the time to do it more
But that is a issue that only I can fix

I have to live with this complex of not being strong enough to
give it a chance

Everyday I cut off a little branch of this freedom blocking tree
Soon it will all be gone

Jon I think that you have the skill to get some very big
longshots

Jon what is the highest win bet you ever cashed ??
thanks
Bill

[Charlie D]

Exotic betting has never been given a second though by me Bill tbh , but reading some of the articles, posts from you guys in US, i think it's time to give it some serious consideration