|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
RDSS Info, Reference How to obtain RDSS2, get started and learn to use it. (Video and other tutorials) |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
09-07-2022, 04:53 PM | #31 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
|
Ranch,
In a bullet workout the horse is assigned a bullet because it finished 1st in rank above all others, I.e. 1/11 as above. it can't beat itself so in gets the 91. In the 65 example if the horse was to get a bullet and were best or 1/65., it would get a 98.48 or 98. Its accounted for in the formula. In the formula the more horses it beats the better its rating. If 2nd of 65 and no bullet it would get a 97. Mitch44 |
09-07-2022, 05:16 PM | #32 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
|
Quote:
|
|
09-07-2022, 06:24 PM | #33 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
|
Yes, the % of work out based on horses beat will distinguish bullet workouts. They're not the same depending on how many it beat. Two bullet works ex.
1/15 = 93 1/30 = 97 It works perfectly with this because they both were #1 of those that worked. So, the bullet work is accounted for. For horses that aren't number 1 they can both have the same rating such as 1/11 & 6/65 as above posts but they're not really equal because one did it against more horses but that can't be determined. For a bullet works the % beaten is clearly defined and figured in the rating, because you're always using a horse that ranked 1st so the number of horses beaten effects the final rating. In other words, all #1 bullet w/o horses are not created equal. The ones that did it against more horses receive the better ratings as in above example, and they should. These two ex. could be in the same race, both with a bullet work however they're not 100, the better of the two is the 1/30. Hope this clarifies it ranch. Mitch44 |
09-07-2022, 09:32 PM | #34 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
|
A bullet work is always better than 100% of the other horses. A horse can have a bullet in 59.6 for 4 straight weeks and have 4 different ratings.
But I'll leave it at that. We aren't going to agree. |
09-07-2022, 11:38 PM | #35 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
|
Either way it is calculated, the basic premise is still valid. Good horses generally turn in good times at good intervals.
|
09-07-2022, 11:59 PM | #36 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
|
Yes ranch, these bullet works normally occur by the much better horses and or higher class of horses. It's not unusual for a very good horse to have more than one bullet work.
We need a way to determine which are better or the best one and how that figure into its form cycle. Obviously, recency of the best one has more importance and how it fits within or spacing of their races. After some work and review of this I believe it'll give you better insights. Wishing you sucess in your future to make profitable plays. Mitch44 |
09-08-2022, 01:30 AM | #37 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
|
Prospects:
With these workout figures the higher the # the better the prospect of its win potential. But I was asked, can a rating of 55 beat horses of say 90 and 85? The answer is yes. This situation can occur with any factor such as TPR where a horse 10 lengths inferior jumps up and beats the top rank horse or top 2 or 3. But how can that be? In almost all cases there was some type of improvement. It found its best distance, surface, class such as a dropdown that’s been racing over its head. First time Blinkers on or off, ditto for Lasix. Claims or trainer changes to a better trainer. How often does this happen, my best guess or estimate is 5 %. Nobody gets them all. However, with proper analysis we can catch some of these and they pay big. Anytime a horse improves its speed in a workout or all of a sudden shows early speed in a race we need to take notice. Try to ascertain the reason why. Sometimes we even must predict or anticipate an improved performance. And that pays big. Having all of a horse's workouts rated by % of horses beaten shows whether its improving or declining. It helps to interpret the form factor. For every race you win you’ll probably lose two due to the form factor. Now betting two horses increases your chances but still form beats us. We need to do better than just guessing if it over the top or will continue their current form. Take notice of a new top in its workouts and if you can find a corollary expect it to continue to improve, with a horse like that we don’t know what its top Speed Rating will be in a race. BTW you can also see this in RDSS PP’s where a horses last race is its highest rating in Total Energy or TPR. Figure out why and with a valid reason expect it to continue to improve. Older horses that run a top seldom repeat that. However, a young horse such as a 2,3 or 4-year-old have upside once they figure racing out or the trainer and connections figure out the horse. Some 5 years old's can improve dramatically due to maturing; however, the majority are 2, 3, & 4-year old's. Having all the races rated in RDSS is another way to figure improving and declining horses and form that few pay attention to. No factor or angle works 100% but we can do better than the present with an open mind and the use of improved workouts or improved Tot. Energy or TPR. Analysis will improve one’s bottom line even if only applied to the top ranked horses in the strongest Factors of the RDSS program. How many times do you pick the wrong two horses out of your top 4? Mitch44 |
09-08-2022, 11:20 AM | #38 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: U K
Posts: 100
|
Have only just skimmed the pages on this thread and regards the bullets can they be traced back to there high run rating in the race that followed the bullet.
That way can you work out if there is a cycle to the run. As I have only skimmed this you have already done this. If so sorry |
09-08-2022, 11:45 AM | #39 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
|
Mike, the short answer is yes. At one glance you can see all of a horse's workouts. By analysis you can compare them to their races and see if there was improvement or decline. They can be a tipoff to a big effort today, especially if coming off a layoff.
The easy way to do this is to have 2 panels open in the program, 1 to pick pace lines and view its PP's and the other panel on workouts. Simple but most refuse to analyze this and their form cycle. BTW just click on the gear box or wheel on the right of screen and it'll give you choices or options on panels. Mitch44 |
09-08-2022, 01:26 PM | #40 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 155
|
Gentlemen, fine Socratic discussion/argument!
|
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Original Energy Program | Lord John | Classic Sartin Programs - Support, Discussion | 0 | 01-18-2013 12:10 AM |
energy program problems | amydlarz | Classic Sartin Programs - Support, Discussion | 2 | 02-23-2011 11:27 PM |
program to a different computer | shrink1 | RDSS | 2 | 07-21-2009 12:39 PM |
C++ manual entry program | smilingtiger | General Discussion | 4 | 06-24-2009 05:38 PM |