Longshot at MNR

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

I hope my efforts of showing the some winners past performances
Is also helping folks with their contender selections

I think it should help in two respects.

1 - what a "true" contender looks like
2 - what a "NON" contender looks like

Not all winners are true contenders

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

FTL Here is the winner of Race 6 yesterday from Parx

was Lisa the right girl ?

Well, let's look at this horse in the context or whether or not it is a "REAL" contender.

First the race conditions.
This is a Starter Allowance(SA) race with a purse of $30k to be run at 6 furlongs on the dirt. To be eligible a horse has to meet two conditions.
1 - it had to have started for a claiming price of $16k or less
2 - it is for horses that have never won 3 races.
This horse qualifies on both conditions.
The race is being run at 6 furlongs on the dirt. This horse has 6 lifetime races, all at 6 furlongs and all on the dirt at either PEN or PRX.


Now to the horse itself.
It has only had 6 lifetime races and they are all there to see, so it makes it an easy read.

In its' first start it was entered in a maiden claiming race for $16k and won off by 15 lengths. THIS is the race that qualifies the horse for today's race on count 1 of the conditions.
This horse has had two wins from 6 starts, so that makes it eligible on count 2 of the conditions.

One should be aware that it is accepted that STATE BRED races are inflated by 20%. What does that mean? In the three allowance races this horse has run in, the purse is shown as $40k. Comparing this to an "OPEN" race, the purse would be $32k. In it's last race, a STATE BRED Stakes race, the purse is shown as $75k. This would translate to $60k in an "OPEN" race.

Looking at the purse value of the races this horse has run in and its' finishes, it reads like this;
$60k - 8th
$32k - 1st
$32k - 3rd
$25k - 3rd
$32k - 2nd
$21K - 1st
Keep in mind, today's purse is $30k, so the horse "fits" at this purse level, since it has run well at every purse level except the last race, which appears to be over its' head at this point in time.

I would say this horse is a "REAL" contender and should receive a paceline. That line should be line-2, since it has been shown that the last line was a class level too high for the horse, a legitimate excuse by Sartin Methodology guidelines.

[dlivery]

Just can not get any better this of simply using the conditions of the race sure explains and open up the skills needed to carve up the race and build a case how we can enter a pace line for this horse and leave no rock unturned.

Thank- You

[Bill V.]

Thanks FTL Thats a great rundown, I thought I was right with my decision to use line 2. This brings me back to my comments above in regards to the Santa Anita race.
Doc often writes about FEAR and in horse racing fear equals Indecision

F alse
Evidence
A ppearing
R eal

Thanks for the lessons
Bill

[Old Arkie Gal]

FTL you are really good with conditions. For those who might want a reference, James Quinn has a book called the Handicapper's Condition Book. I can't speak to the revised edition, but the original was very helpful to me. Understanding the condition will sometimes provide an opportunity as it did in FTL's analysis.
Pat

[lsosa54]

The revised edition is just as useful, just updated for a few new types of conditions.

[shoeless]

For cheaper tracks you might want to refer to Steve Davidowitz excellent
book Betting Thoroughbreds the chapter Edge in Class.

[Jonathan Steele]

Originally Posted by rmath

Bill, Ted or anyone, How do you explain a horse like this winning .

The only way to explain a horse like this is with angles, coupled with (perhaps) a favorable post position/track bias/match-up/running style*, coupled with standard handicapping factors like a very favorable ITM record (39%) on this surface/distance of 56-4-12-6 (compare that to its lifetime record of 57-4-12-6, hint-hint)...but with "numbers," no way, at least not mine. Having said that, a horse with such gargantuan odds having any, or all the above in its favor, is definitely a horse to use in the exotics or WPS which is, in my view (and current ability), the only way to "play" this race.

Jon

*Plus trainer patterns which I, at this time, do not keep records of.

[rmath]

To everyone who responded to this post a big THANK YOU.
I enjoyed reading and studying each response.
We are never to old to learn from other outlooks on how to find a playable race and viable contenders.

Best wishes to all for the up coming holidays and a prosperous New Year.

rmath

[Jonathan Steele]

You're welcome. I"m more than happy to share my thoughts, insights and ideas with likeminded people. I'm sure I speak the same for the others that responded also.

Regards,

Jon