Del Mar and Saratoga

[elocutionist]

I did a survey for the first 2 weeks of Del Mar and Saratoga. No 2 yr old races or maiden races with any fts. The results were based on my paceline and contender selections. Yours will be different. Following is the % of winners in the top 4.

TPR 90%
RX3 86%
BL/BL 85%
VDC 81%
BPP 75%
PL 75%

TPR was best on dirt with 56 of 58 winners in the top 4. RX3 was best on turf with 38 out of 46 winners.

Phil

[Lt1]

Nice survey thanks for sharing.
Tim

[elocutionist]

Thanks Tim, I appreciate all your input as well as all people who contribute to this forum

Phil

[Lt1]

Phil it's always great to see input from all parts of the country as well as different capping approaches. Hopefully folks are paying attention and upping their games.
Tim

[Mitch44]

Hello Phil,

Members may want to know what your method of picking a pace line, that was used. They can than better relate to your survey. Particularity those that may use the same method.

Keep up your good work Phil,similar research will further your goals.
Thanks for sharing,

Mitch44

[elocutionist]

Hi Mitch,

I start with the best perceptor of the last 3. I will go back farther if the last 3 are not comparable in distance, surface or class. I also look for a selected paceline that doesn't look normal for that horse. It could be caused by high or low dtv, fast or slow pace, etc. I then determine whether to use it or change it.
For selecting contenders, I start by reading the conditions, then going thru each horses entire pp's twice. By doing that, I get a feel for how the race will be run and who should be the contenders. I've read a lot of posts by yourself, LT1, Bill V, Richie P. members who have a lot of experience with the Sartin methodology.
Thanks, to all.

Phil

[Mitch44]

Phil glad to see your using the power of the Perceptor. Its one of the greatest tools ever to assist in getting the proper pace line. Few can determine the proper line by just looking at it or using other means to select a line because they don't see or pick up the hidden moves made by horses within the line.

Its also very smart to check the DTV and see if todays pace favors it or hinders it based on today's Match UP or todays pace. You have a very good foundation for future success.

Best of luck going forward,
Mitch44

[rdiam]

Now, what will actually help you make $ (same sample from SAR and DMR as original poster):

1. Trainer/jockey combo win % is 30% or higher => 17/67 or 25%, 1.49 ROI

2. Second time Lasix => 14/92 or 15%, 1.33 ROI

3. Running Style- E => 45/240 or 19%, 0.94 ROI

4. Tote Favorites => 45/126 or 36%, 0.89 ROI

5. Fr1 60 or higher => 9/28 or 32%, 0.99 ROI

and those to AVOID:

1. Blinkers Off => 0/15 or 0%, 0.00 ROI

2. Apprentice Jockey => 1/47 or 2%, 0.20 ROI

Good luck

Richard

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Hello Phil,

Members may want to know what your method of picking a pace line, that was used. They can than better relate to your survey. Particularity those that may use the same method.

Keep up your good work Phil,similar research will further your goals.
Thanks for sharing,

Mitch44

I would find it quite interesting to see which pace lines some of the experienced people actually select so the rest of us can compare which lines we picked.

[Mitch44]

Ranch,
Beware that even some of the experienced people don't agree on a line for a particular horse. Once a horse was put up that several of us (Bill V., Lt1 & myself) all disagreed on.

Even among us, one of us may win a race that the other may or may not win. We all live or die by our decisions.

Its best to follow a consistent procedure to achieve consistent results.
I'm sure if you put up a horse or a race that opinions or comments would be received.

Mitch44

For the most part its easy however