The Modern Sartin Methodology...

[Charlie D]

has Divine Park on Top

[RichieP]

Morning Charlie.
My look with Bl/Bl,Tpr and Segments screens.
Best of luck/skill!

[mikesal57]

Great post Guys...this is exactly my delimia presented here..

Pace lines!!

As u can see Charlie used , probably, the horses best lines while Richie used the most recent..My question to Richie is why havent u gone to better lines since these are the top horses on the grounds and should/can produce their top numbers ??

thxs Mike

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Great post Guys...this is exactly my delimia presented here..

Pace lines!!

As u can see Charlie used , probably, the horses best lines while Richie used the most recent..My question to Richie is why havent u gone to better lines since these are the top horses on the grounds and should/can produce their top numbers ??

thxs Mike

Morning Mike
When I saw Charlie's cool name for the thread it brought me back to the followups and everything. So I figured to fire up the race and work it how I used to. So there is no raw matching going on. Pretty much best of last 3.

Fwiw what I did do was change the settings to use 100% of the variant instead of the stock 50%. Why? I noticed right away that the 2 ml favs BOTH have lines with VERY high variants (+/- 20 or more). Knowing I'm using adjusted I want to bring those lines closer together with the 100% than what shows with the 50%.

Hey have a great day Mike!

[mikesal57]

good morn to you too...early bird like me...lol

So u use this same config on all your races?

Is it doing well for you?

thxs mike

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

good morn to you too...early bird like me...lol
So u use this same config on all your races?
Is it doing well for you?
thxs mike

No I don't Mike.

For me once variants either + or - 20 or higher show up on key pace lines with horses I make as contenders the flags go up big time. Then it is a matter of looking around at the tools available to possibly help me. The "no variant" and "100% variant" are 2 such tools for example.Passing the race is the other option

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Morning Mike

Fwiw what I did do was change the settings to use 100% of the variant instead of the stock 50%. Why? I noticed right away that the 2 ml favs BOTH have lines with VERY high variants (+/- 20 or more). Knowing I'm using adjusted I want to bring those lines closer together with the 100% than what shows with the 50%.

Just curious - did you experiment a bit previously by trying say 65% or 80%, or did you just elect to eliminate the adjustment entirely?

Or, Ted, if you're around, I'd welcome any input that you can provide on the background of 50% being the recommended figure.

[Bill V.]

Hi Clore

I just finished my workup so I have to step in here

Race 10 Saratoga 9.0 Dirt Race Class 125

Looking over the APV and Class rating figures
Curlin of course is way better than the field

AP Arrow
Devine Park
Out of Control
Wanderin Boy are next
loose leaf
Past the point
and Dr DFC are probably out of this league

Ok let start with Curlin

I will use line 2 88 Speed Rating 118 Race class
why not line 1? turf race tune up
Why not line 3 No data NAD

Next AP Arrow Line 2 79 speed rating 122 Race class
why not line 1? just a bad race horse has not run well since NAD
but since they put him in this race maybe he is feeling better
Why not line 3 NAD no data Why not line 4 ? the 95 is the horses best ever
this looks like a Ronald Regan good in the 80's special Not a 95 horse anymore
workouts are ok only

#4 Devine Park Line 1 85 Speed rating 117 race class
line 3 91 Speed rating 114 race class
why not line 2 ? 99 Speed rating 113 race class ? just a call But I
am sure this is a fast horse so the added distance and class of Curlin
makes me think a better than 85 or a match to the 91 on the inner AQU track
is most likely

# 2 Loose leaf Line 1 91 Speed rating 106 Race Class
why not line 2? turf Why not line 3 7.0 78 Speed rating

# 3 Past the point Line 1 84 speed rating 105 race class
why not line 2 Turf Why not line 3 Kee Poly 8.5 faided
non comparable track distance

# 7 Out of control 83 TURF Speed Rating 120 race class
all turf lines shows a 87 on the dirt 519 days ago
Why not line 1 Turf distance 10.0 not comparable
why not line 3 Turf distance 8.0 not comperable
Here is something from Doc about using turf lines
in dirt races "Turf Speed ratings are faster than dirt"
So I will take a note of that when I see how the 7 rates
noing his numbers are already faster

# 8 Wandering Boy Line 1 7.0 dirt 93 Speed rating 112 race class
first back off layoff exceelent race loves Saratoga
Look at the 96 speed rating line 5 same distance
why not line 2? 83 sy track 8.5 distance CD
Why not line 3 8.3 sy track 77 speed rating
why not line 4? bad race

My look readouts and comments

[Charlie D]

I should also state i am little worried about Divine Park's #2 line, overall time seems very quick to me

[lsosa54]

Keep in mind on Divine that he's only gone 2 turns once - on the AQU Inner which is a winterized surface (some special type of dirt). Even though the inner track is a mile long and the main track is 1 1/8, the stretch on the Inner is actually 21 ft. longer due to where the turns are positioned.

Divine's other routes are one turn miles which are a different ballgame to the 2 turn, 1 1/8 he'll be asked to go today. The 96 day layoff may or may not help - his last 2 layoffs produced pretty poor efforts. His works look solid and his connections are top notch.

From an AOdds APV point of view (don't know how the Hat programmed the APV calc and don't care - they've proven to be very good to me), Curlin is a stickout at 321%, with Out Of Control at 203% and AP Arrow at 92% - no one else is close. Divine Park is 4th but at 35% of purse. AP Arrow looks off form right now.

I'll see if I can run it through EXDC later if I have time. Probably not a race I'll be betting.