Would you put this horse in?

[shoeless]

Robert,Thanks that does help.Unfortunately for me I cant do the match up very well.You would think that for somebody that used nothing but the racing form for 35 years I would have picked up at least a little bit by now.I have read all the posts and the match up books but it still is confusing to me.My biggest problem isnt getting the right horses in, I guess from just using the form it has really helped my paceline selection.It's what to do after I get the horses in the program.What guidelines do you use to setup your ESP horses?Jeff

[gl45]

Dick,
You did answer my question. Thank you.
The handicapping process start after the contenders are selected. Computer don't know trainer class maneuvers, works patterns, etc...etc.
Would you use #5 as contender in the infamous WO race#8?
Go and check the #5 horse workouts patterns and see what the trainer had in mind.
Pino

[shoeless]

Bill,No problem using tapes or FU'S at least you arent afraid to show how you do things it's appreciated.Jeff

[Fast4522]

Folks,
Do not take this the wrong way but, when all you have is a hammer doesn't that nail look pretty good?

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by lbj

Dick,
You did answer my question. Thank you.
The handicapping process start after the contenders are selected. Computer don't know trainer class maneuvers, works patterns, etc...etc.
Would you use #5 as contender in the infamous WO race#8?
Go and check the #5 horse workouts patterns and see what the trainer had in mind.
Pino

Pino,

The trainer has been working the horse at roughly weekly intervals (at least since September), first at 4f at not too bad speeds and then at 5f since returning to WO at increasing speeds, with the last WO being its fastest yet. Clearly the trainer intends the horse well and is giving it the proper conditioning for a return, first for a trial at WO which season is ending in a month, then probably back to Florida. After allowance races, he is having modest/reasonable expectations given the lightly raced horse's performance so far, by entering it in a Claiming 25.

Given its absence from racing and its demonstated TE so far, I would not have included it as a Win contender, but perhaps in the top 4 (it showed). I currently don't know how to tell whether to include it in any exotic bet, rather than say several other horses who might not win but finish in the money.

What do you see, and how would you decide whether to make it an in-the-money contender, or not?

Ted

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Robert,Thanks that does help.Unfortunately for me I cant do the match up very well.You would think that for somebody that used nothing but the racing form for 35 years I would have picked up at least a little bit by now.I have read all the posts and the match up books but it still is confusing to me.My biggest problem isnt getting the right horses in, I guess from just using the form it has really helped my paceline selection.It's what to do after I get the horses in the program.What guidelines do you use to setup your ESP horses?Jeff

Jeff:
The Match Up as you say is not easy and I too am not at this time totally confident that I could use it exclusively without depending on some of the other factors to determine today’s race as either early or OTE. I have purchased and read both books by “The Hat” and to be absolutely honest it is only now and via this site with the help of Richie and Jim’s additional instructions that I feel more comfortable in trying to apply the methodology. “The Hat” has given us (IMO) through Richie factors that are probably intuitive to Jim but paramount to using and understanding the methodology that were not in the books, and they are power moves and the understanding that if an E/EP type shows in recent races that it cannot get on top of previously established pace call times then out it goes. Bottom line as to the MU I am still testing and learning.

I am by no stretch of the imagination an expert in using the Sartin based software or in handicapping in general but as you I have been at it for over 35 years. I try to be regimented in things like establishing Early vs. OTE and in setting up or evaluating the ESP. As to ESP I hope the following helps:

Start with the first quarter-mile. If the horse is within one length at that point, it's an EP win.
If not, then move on to the first half-mile. If the horse is within one length at that point, it's a P win.
If not, then move on to the stretch call. If the horse is within one length at that point, it's a PS win.
If not, then the win is an S win.

I tweak the above to finalize the final decision as to ESP but do not stray too far off. The point is to get this very important early vs. OTE out of the way and IMO look at it from more than one perspective because it is so important but end it so that winning choice and betting choices can be more confidently made.
Robert

[shoeless]

Robert,I appreciate you taking the time to post that and more importantly sharing your insight.Jeff

[delmarscott2004]

RichieP / Robert ,
NOTE : I did not work this race until after Jeff posted his message . I would NOT have used the line in question.
My Paceline selection / MatchUp ( Basic Sartin ) as thought to me by Horward and Shan Sartin , The Hat , Tom Brohamer and Dick Schmidt . I use equalized , normalized and adjusted lines via trackmaster . Reviewing the best of the last three COMPARABLE LINES . I select the best two speed ratings for each horse , review and eliminate the worst one .I NEVER use the best line , speed rating , if I can't find a typical line with in three speed rating points in the horses past performance , and then may still not use that best line if the horse has not performed well with in that range . I enter all in the computer and let the program do the handicapping for me . I then eliminate down to five by Total energy , betting the two with highest odds of the top three tired bl/bl , most of the time 60/40 . My ROI is above average .
Exactas / Trifectas / Supers / ETE. I do Handicap when doing these looking at published class ,Trainer moves , jockies , track class , workouts and on and on until ANIXIETY sets in and I head to the medicin cabinet. My Hat is off to all of you who can do it all , I need to keep it simple , using a program , adjusted Val #4 RichieP and Bill, Spec160 Ted , I thank the three of you for your help ,good capping to you all , this board is great..............Scott

[admin]

thanks for your explanation Vanoy


Good Skill

Bill

[gl45]

Ted,
your analysis of #5 is absolutely correct, beside the horse had works:
9/20 4f 49.3 B
9/14 3f 35.4 B
9/6 3f 36.4 B
8/30 3f 37.2 B
notice the increase in speed at the various distances, as well.
Would I have considered him as a contender? Based on what I know now about handicapping, I say yes.
We do agree that it takes more than just numbers.
One last question:
what do you think the Trainer will do next? I'm looking forward to the next race.
Pino