Starting Over

[NWearner]

Originally Posted by shoeless

NWearner,You have a lot of great insight and also willing to share it Im glad you came on board here.How do you suggest using QSP\postional pace with the pace ratings?I get confused using QSP to see if race setsup early or late.It sounds like an interesting idea.Also for 2 horse betting what value should you be looking for?Let's say Im starting with a 200 bank and goint to invest 10% of it a race.Jeff

Shoeless,

Thanks. I'm glad I came aboard here too. There is lots of exchanging of info and no drama. That is the way things should be. You actually know me from other boards (I once loaned you some Handicapping Magic tapes to listen to because you were curious about them - I totally trusted you to return them and you proved to be 100% a standup person).

When you're looking at QSP, use them to determine how the race will play out. For example, if you see a lot of 0, 2, 3, 3, 1, 4 type of QSPs, it will be easy to see that there just isn't much pace to the race. You can pretty much determine that deep closers have no chance, but that your EP and P runners will benefit. If, on the other hand, you see horses with QSPs of 8, 7, 6, there is plenty of pace and your S and PS types have a chance. If you see a horse that is 5, 6 or 7 in QSP and the next horse has a QSP 2 points less than the highest, you may have an lone early horse. The main thing is to use the QSP to determine how the race will play out.

Once you have done that, you can use your pace ratings to determine whether a horse will be close enough to the pace, whatever the pace is, to be a contender. If, for example, you estimate that a horse will be 7 lengths off the lead based on your EPR, and the track profile shows that a horse should be within 3 lengths at the 2nd call, is that a horse a logical contender? The answer is maybe....it depends on how you think the race will play out, but it probably is not.

The trick is to use the info you have in a logical way. In general, I think positional pace is more important than pace ratings, but pace ratings still have plenty of use in contender selection/elimination.

Oh, and by the way, if you have a $200 bankroll don't bet 10% of it in one race. It won't take much to wipe it out. If you are playing this size of a bankroll stick to $4 wagers (2% of bank) if betting one horse or 5% of bank if betting two horses as Schmidt/Hambleton described in their book. This is probably too high of a percentage, but at least a $200 bankroll is easy to replenish if it disappears.

[Fast4522]

Jeff,
All of the above works and are good pointers. What I would add is never give up the racing form because of software. Ever go to a track or casino like Foxwoods where your not permitted, so you buy a form and enjoy the races anyway (have winners)? Just like having a spell checker for ten years and all of a sudden you can't spell to save your live. Just joking about the last one.

[shoeless]

NWearner,Now I know you, that was awfully nice when you lent me those tapes without knowing me.Your a real standup guy and I appreciate the advice.Jeff

[shoeless]

Thanks guys for all of the advice I really appreciate it and I think for me it's been one of the best threads I have started.I know it's helped other people on board here as well.If you come up with any other thoughts let me know.Jeff

[admin]

Hi Jeff
I wish I could add more for you
and others

I.m sorry

[shoeless]

Bill,You can add more.How about your betting method it seems to work well?Also you have learned a lot about sticking with one program that would be helpful.Jeff

[admin]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Bill,You can add more.How about your betting method it seems to work well?Also you have learned a lot about sticking with one program that would be helpful.Jeff

Hi Jeff

I only use Val 4 (rdss in the val 4 mode)
I have not looked at another program for while
I am doing the exact same thing I have been doing since june 6th 2000
which was the day after i met Doc Sartin in his office

My betting method ? I do bet Win W/P and Up until a few weeks ago WPS
I WPS I have skipped the show bets for now

I have stopped betting exactas
but when I do I 3 horse box

I bet two horse in my top 3 If I see a big improver in VDC
in a tier 4 or 5 horse i bet it and the best horse of the top 3
BLBL

I start at $200.00 banks
I bet $3 win bets! Yep thats it . When I hit $300 I take that money and
bank it for my future and start again at $200
why ?? I have too much stress and I'm too tired
after working all day to take any more stress
This level of $200 - $300 banks works well with no stress
I'm happy and confident and things go pretty well

Thanks Bill

[shoeless]

Bill,Thanks for your insight too,I think we should nickname you Mr.Consistant.Jeff

[bobp]

Hi Jeff, Our big brothers sure are supportive.so here I go to also help with what I have had exerienced in doing. You have to understand that part of our satisfaction comes from the thrill our horse or horses accelerating around the turn and thundering down the strech to the finish line.

[bobp]

Sorry, hit a key and my reply flew out. So here is my plan that works well,

gives me the thrill of watching the top runners and riders do their thing and

keeps me in the green . First, I am an exacta player and occasional Tri player.

Whatever program you use, you must be comfortable with, and follow the instructions to the letter. Remember this is a horserace. When the chute opens, good things do not always happen. And the race may be over for one or two of our horses. Doesn't mean you made the wrong choices.

At one time I spent making a living at the Fairgrounds and Vegas . Spent as many as 9 straight days in Vegas and broke even betting $600 exactas. Now
I am a $2 better and $1 on exacta combos. Before you laugh that off the exacta I hit last night at Penn paid $280.20 (4th). I got just as big a charge out of the 109-1 shot running second as any other race. Did not play the tri, beacuse I am not that "wild man" any more. And I have hit them for more than 5k. Now when I get up 100%, I'm done for that day or night. (I don't get the idea I am playing with their money, my idea it is my money)If lose 4 in a row, I'm also done . It's not my day. As Jim Bradsaw says "I,m on " or "I'm off"

The exacta betting system I use is 3/4 . Example 123 with 1234, Cost $9 bucks. the Tris I do bet are 2-5-6 or 5-2-6 . I have to have 14 points or better to bet an exacta, Ex: 5-2,4-1,6-1, 3-1 total is 15.3 or its probably not profitable.

As for programs, I have been a sucessful Validator user since the 90's, nothing else, even when it was outdated by Trackmaster. Ted, Bill and Ritchie were very helpful with Validator.

So hope this helps, we all have been there .

bob

PS: I love this quote: "Be yourself, everyone else is taken"

and from bob: " If you think you are beaten , you are. If you think you dare not you don"t. If you would like to win, but don't think you can, its almost certain you won't", For out in this world you will find, success begins with a fellows will, And its all in the state of mind"