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Synergism A Forum for Synergism Users to discuss, exchange tips, post race workups. |
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08-26-2012, 02:44 PM | #31 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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Now you're talking, an objective test. I realize this is a lot of work. Thanks for doing it, Bill.
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08-26-2012, 02:54 PM | #32 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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Quote:
Just for your information, and not necessarily for testing purposes, most winners are found in the top two of FW, TT and DR. Sometimes the actual TT fraction can differ from the TT ranking. And sometimes there may be as little as a 0.01 difference between the second and third ranked TT horses. Something to keep an eye on when you're betting real money. When I find only one horse fits that bill I bet him to win and three times to place. For example, $2 Win and $6 Place. Of course a model with improve your results, but that goes without saying. And for turf you need to take a good look at SP. I suggest you limit your testing to dirt races only with dirt pacelines, if at all possible. That will give you the most objective results. Keep up the good work, matey (as Richie would say :>) |
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08-26-2012, 03:00 PM | #33 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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Jim, if you haven't seen it in a while, the movie is now available on Netflix.
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08-26-2012, 03:02 PM | #34 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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08-26-2012, 04:07 PM | #35 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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DMR test race
Thanks David
Here is test race # 5 Race # 4 from Del Mar 8/26 This one is tricky because using Phase 1 I have turf, dirt and a sprint line and 6 lines to rate I have shippers in the race The 3 year best for 1 mile at Del Mar is 135.1 The setup times are shown Using raw hand entered data afilling all asked questions the top 2 FW and DR would be the and |
08-26-2012, 04:18 PM | #36 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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DMR Tst race 5
Looks like both the raw and RDSS adjusted agree
although The adjusted ranks the sprinter # best on DR |
08-26-2012, 06:02 PM | #37 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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Bill, as they say in Massachusetts, "Not too shabby."
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08-26-2012, 07:03 PM | #38 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Raw
Wow Raw is doing very well
Bill |
08-26-2012, 07:16 PM | #39 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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consistant
I had to use 6 horses because I have to pick my pace lines 100%
consistantly if this test is going to be fair. I feel that Phase 1 gets me the best chance to have the winner at least in the top 5 I just want to see were the winner ranks better It does me or anybody else very little good to do races ahead of time and not have the winner included In the Del Mar Race 4 I had to use 6 horses because basic Phase 1 guidelines are to use the top 5 TPR horses and the top 2 EP and LP horses Here is the TPR screen I can only eliminate the #5 because its not top 5 TPR and Top 2 EPR or LPR I suppose the 3 is a none contender too being a turf horse but I want to keep it consistant Sorry I had to use 6 horses in this race In my day to day handicapping this happens every now and then Bill |
08-27-2012, 09:15 AM | #40 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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Quote:
And you might want to consider throwing a dollar or two on your picks. :>) |
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