Match with "The Hat" at Saratoga

[RichieP]

Horse 9

[RichieP]

Horse 10

[RichieP]

Horse 12 to complete the field

[RichieP]

Tandems for this race.

[RichieP]

My workup of the 6th at Saratoga:

I see the 3 and 4 run early in around 46 and change 1c and 1:10 and change 2c. I see the winner running OTE here.

1 - slow - Out
2 - slow "Mars" horse - Out
3 - Early - Out
4 - Early - Out
5 - shows 2 good finishes against fast pace - In
6 - shows a good finish way back against fast pace - In
8 - slow horse - Out
9 - faced 1:11 2c twice and has failed to hit the board - Out
10 - slow horse - Out
12 - slow horse - Out

Final win contenders - 5 and 6
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Matching line 3 for the 5 against line 7 for the 6 shows clearly the 5 is both ahead of the 6 and also faster. Matching lines from Belmont so confidence is high.
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#5 Banrock to Win

[emilio840]

I used the Last line of #11 to come up with the pace of the race. which is 23.3 47.1 111.3 137.3 144 (I added 6.2) to bring it to 8.5f.

There are two horses that can take the lead, #4, 9. But they have never won on the lead. All the other horses seem to be slow at the 1/4 mile and at the 1/2 mile and at the 2nd call.

Since #11 comes from the fastest pace of the race and I figured that it is going to run OTE. This race fits this horse perfectlly. The #11 should win the race easy.

emilio

[RichieP]

These races will stay up for a week or so to give folks a chance to see the races and hopefully participate.

Then Jim will come on and lay out his workup of each race followed by him looking to try and see things in YOUR individual workups that he might help you with ok?

Good Matching and see you in a week or so.
Richie

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Steele

Richie,

Hello my friend. I can not say this enough times nor emphasize it strongly enough: THANKS for doin' what you're doing!!!

All the best,

Jon
p.s. And of course, ditto for The Hat.

You are quite welcome Jon. I am really hoping folks will turn out and PARTICIPATE. That is the whole purpose of this thread.

Getting folks to jump in who have read the book and/or have been reading the threads here.

The last 2 threads prior to this one are approaching a combined 9 THOUSAND views.

THAT is an awful lot of "somebodies" looking in man. Knowing how Bill has the board set up I can tell you it is a LOT of folks interested.

Let's see what goes down.

It is OK to lose a race here. I have lost so many races in the last year over the phone with Hat I could not count them. Yet after every loss I LEARNED something from him.

NOW is YOUR chance to LEARN about the Hat's teaching. Just hope this is understood and that people chime in.

take care,
Richie

[mufasa]

Rich:

Just one suggestion if possible. Why not keep the responses and work-ups by us separate from your post in which you give us the races with corresponding work-ups. This will minimize confusion and give some that may be slower an opportunity to respond.

Anyway here goes:

Saratoga race 1; I agree that it could be won by an OTE since 7 out of the 9 runners are early type runners.

The win contenders that you have selected are the only off the pace types and I used 22.0 and 45.4 to separate them (all times in 5ths).

Horse #1 shows better and more races at the 45.4 half mile time as shown back in race #7 and race #5, and even somewhat in race #3.

Horse #8 shows only one competitive race at the 45.4 half-mile time, race #2, where he lost ever so little ground in the stretch to the winner.

As to horse #1 I would say that the race 7 back shows that he can run at the projected pace for these two contenders since he was at the 2nd position throughout the 5F race. He even gained lengths on the leader in the stretch after having fallen back some through out the race, and all in 45.2. In the 5th race back against a faster first ¼ of 21.3 and the preferred 45.4 half mile or less he had a very big Power Move with 2 moves and a pick up of 7 lengths on the leader and winning while going away at 3.5L.

Win choice #1 Cool The Economy.

Thanks,

Robert

[shrink1]

Richie,
I can'y thank you enough for your extremely informative posts. I don't have the book, but have been reading the threads. I've started to practice what you preach( along with the Hat), but, have a ways to go. Lately my betting has been in sort of a funk where I would have the winner and not get the second horse, or for my Pick 3's running 2 3 4 in the last leg or first leg. I hope after more practice I can narrow down the horses. Once again thank youand the Hat.
Ira