Dmr r6 8/13

[SilentRun]

Another sprint race which demonstrates the significance of F1, E/EP, EPR, E/L,
SC and TT. I give more weight to F1, E/EP, EPR and E/L.

Although the number 1 horse did not race in 302 days it had that significant
5F workout within the last 2 weeks. In "How Will Your Horse Run Today".
William Scott has studied and documented the positiveness of the 5F workout
for layoff horses. It has worked for me many times before so I made a
judgemental call on the 1 horse. It also did not hurt to see that this horse
was a FPLR type as per his PP (which I can post if anyone is interested).
I considered the #1 in form and he was also number 1 for: E/L, E/EP, SC and
EPR.

The 8 horse was came out on top of the BL food chain with FI=1 and E/P=2.
The 8 horse also had won his last race by over 3 lengths and demonstrated
that he can make "power moves" (an expression that I recall after reading that
excellent post explaining the concepts of the "Match Up". So I bet the 1 and 8 to win.

I was worried about the low odds favorite (#9) busting the exacta considering he won his
last 2. The #3 horse could have also ran ITM. I admit I was lucky but I went
with the indicators above that my records have demonstrated to be very reliable.
And the high exacta payoffs justified this play


Ernie

[SilentRun]

The 8 horse was ITM last 10....He has to be part of any exotic.
The 1 horse will be contention also if he is in form. Not too many wins
but certainly an ITM contender.

Ernie

[Bill V.]

Nice work Ernie

Good to see your work and the great result

GS
Bill

P.S.
I saw you IM. No I was not able to do races from Del Mar today
trying to get a free weekend and to get to Del Mar

[SilentRun]

Thanks Bill....Have a great and profitable weekend at Del Mar.
I wish I could be there or at Saratoga and meet everyone
but I have family comittments.

Ernie

[Ted Craven]

Ernie,

Good work, congratulations! I was at Del Mar today with Bill Lyster and we bet that race. We both had something completely different - and lost of course . On review, your picks seem self-evident and I can barely see what I was thinking... No computer today, just scraps of paper and an inscrutable DRF on my lap in a dim grandstand.

BTW, we checked out the Pacific Infield pavilion and it looks like a good spot for this weekend's gathering. Hope we can get some power electricity for the computers.

if I can, I'll blog a bit during the day. Bill, I sure hope you can make it home for Sunday. Park the rig in the back lot and come on in!

Ted

[SilentRun]

Thanks...wish I could be there and meet everybody.

Ernie

[alydar_ David]

Nice hit, Ernie. Having the nerve to use #1 made your day. Clint Eastwood would be proud of you. "Yeah I'm using the layoff horse. You got a problem with that, punk?"

:>)

[Rverge]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

Thanks...wish I could be there and meet everybody.

Ernie

hello silent run.....please stop posting about this race! i had the 1 in the "dime a day" contest @ xpressbet.(bet 1 horse, 1 race wps, be top money leader for the day and win $1,000) and for the 2nd time i finished 2nd.
i also had a choice about 2 horses last week(6-8) well i selected the 6 and the 8 wins! pays $30.00. oh well...
by the way nice hit!
ps i have the 3 in R1 @ dmr