riding the favorites coat tails - Pace and Cap

tompkins · 04-12-2006, 01:34 AM

How often do you come across a race that has a single standout (these are often maidens) that tends to make you NOT bet the contest? There is enough randomness in racing that you can utilize this ONE entry to garner a bigger prize. The 7th at Philly today was such a race: the overwhelming choice (#1) did not get out too well but ran on for third. The logical horses finished all around it however leading to a trifecta that one could have tapped into for only a few dollars keying the obvious choice as a single in the first, second and third slots to the other choices for a payoff of $593.20 for a relatively small investment of ( 1-(236) â€“(236), (236) -1-(236), (236)-(236)-1)

7th race - Philadelphia Park - April 11, 2006

Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
2 Cindarullah Jose Luis Flores 26.20 12.20 4.20
3 Sign Post Hiram G. Rivera 20.20 6.00
1 Gold for Nina Frankie Pennington 2.10
Also ran: 6 - Lost the Signal , 4 - Winlocs Articchill , 5 - Keeping Faith , 8 - Plain N Fancy , 7 - Laura K

Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff
$2 Pick 3 2-3-2 (3 correct) 105.60
$2 Exacta 2-3 223.00
$2 Trifecta 2-3-1 593.20

Let the coat-tails of a big favorite open the chance for randomness to pay you for your effort.

uncleroughy · 04-12-2006, 01:09 PM

Great helpful analysis post! I was there and as usual goofed on this race. I keyed the fav in the race with 348 etc so now I am checking the race over again (using Val II)to see how I overlooked the winner #2. Thanks Tompkins for your insight.

tompkins · 04-12-2006, 03:42 PM

the key in using the 2 here was the e/late balance screen.

admin · 04-12-2006, 04:11 PM

Not bad
The key could be the 8 line 3 is the best of the last 3 but is it the line to use ?

The favorite #1 went off at .50/1
Very easy to bypass both of these and go to tier 3 and 4

admin · 04-12-2006, 04:13 PM

This screen is based on the lines I used and these are my top 5 contenders
Tompkins what do you think of this ??
two biggest early big Exacta

admin · 04-12-2006, 04:16 PM

Horse 1

admin · 04-12-2006, 04:16 PM

Horse 2 Here is your winner

admin · 04-12-2006, 04:17 PM

Horse 3

admin · 04-12-2006, 04:17 PM

Here is the problem
is race 3 the best line?

admin · 04-12-2006, 04:18 PM

Next #4

04-12-2006, 03:42 PM	#3
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	the key in using the 2 here was the e/late balance screen. Attached Images __________________ velocititian

04-12-2006, 04:13 PM	#5
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	the Late early This screen is based on the lines I used and these are my top 5 contenders Tompkins what do you think of this ?? two biggest early big Exacta Attached Images

04-12-2006, 04:16 PM	#6
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	My lines Horse 1 Attached Images

04-12-2006, 04:16 PM	#7
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Next Horse 2 Here is your winner Attached Images

04-12-2006, 04:17 PM	#8
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Next Horse 3 Attached Images

04-12-2006, 01:34 AM	#1
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	riding the favorites coat tails How often do you come across a race that has a single standout (these are often maidens) that tends to make you NOT bet the contest? There is enough randomness in racing that you can utilize this ONE entry to garner a bigger prize. The 7th at Philly today was such a race: the overwhelming choice (#1) did not get out too well but ran on for third. The logical horses finished all around it however leading to a trifecta that one could have tapped into for only a few dollars keying the obvious choice as a single in the first, second and third slots to the other choices for a payoff of $593.20 for a relatively small investment of ( 1-(236) â€“(236), (236) -1-(236), (236)-(236)-1) 7th race - Philadelphia Park - April 11, 2006 Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show 2 Cindarullah Jose Luis Flores 26.20 12.20 4.20 3 Sign Post Hiram G. Rivera 20.20 6.00 1 Gold for Nina Frankie Pennington 2.10 Also ran: 6 - Lost the Signal , 4 - Winlocs Articchill , 5 - Keeping Faith , 8 - Plain N Fancy , 7 - Laura K Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff $2 Pick 3 2-3-2 (3 correct) 105.60 $2 Exacta 2-3 223.00 $2 Trifecta 2-3-1 593.20 Let the coat-tails of a big favorite open the chance for randomness to pay you for your effort. Attached Images __________________ velocititian

04-12-2006, 01:09 PM	#2
uncleroughy AlwNW3X Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 44	From Uncle Roughy (the old man) Great helpful analysis post! I was there and as usual goofed on this race. I keyed the fav in the race with 348 etc so now I am checking the race over again (using Val II)to see how I overlooked the winner #2. Thanks Tompkins for your insight.

04-12-2006, 04:11 PM	#4
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	My take Not bad The key could be the 8 line 3 is the best of the last 3 but is it the line to use ? The favorite #1 went off at .50/1 Very easy to bypass both of these and go to tier 3 and 4 Attached Images

04-12-2006, 04:17 PM	#9
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Next #8 Here is the problem is race 3 the best line? Attached Images

04-12-2006, 04:18 PM	#10
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Next #4 Next #4 Attached Images