Practice Race Keeneland Race 8 - Pace and Cap

Bill V. · 04-15-2016, 07:59 AM

Keeneland race 8 In honor of Richie P , FTL and Jeff (shoeless)
all who keep me going out here on the road its nice to talk horses to pass the time .

Here we go .....

Notes
All have 2 wins except horse 7
Can the 2 horse route and go 3/3 ?
will a late energy turf horse win ?

Conditions

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Horses

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Bill V. · 04-15-2016, 08:01 AM

4 5 6 7

Bill V. · 04-15-2016, 08:03 AM

8 9 10 11 12

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Bill V. · 04-15-2016, 08:06 AM

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My look at the 8th from Keeneland
OC 62.5 N3-X
Step 1 Top 5 TPR Line 1
2 11 5 12 6

Step 2 Fulcrum horse
No Fulcrum No one has run at 8 furlongs - Keeneland last line

Step 3 Running styles

Horse 1 Presser No line 30/1 ml
Horse 2 S/P Line 1 - never routed only 2 lines
Horse 3 Early Presser Line 1
Horse 4 Sus No line
Horse 5 Presser No line
Horse 6 EP Line 1 No line
Horse 7 Sus Line 1 No line
Horse 8 Press line 1
Horse 9 Early No line
Horse 10 Press Line 2 excuse line 1 off track
Horse 11 Early Line 1
Horse 12 E/P Line 1

Step 4 Who has the top EPR

The 11 has the best EPR 99
Early Routing
Can It go wire to
wire = No Its LPRs are too low 81, 79 72

Step 5 rate the lines make your decisions

The top TPR horses
They are 10 11 12
Top 3 VDC = 10 12 3
Top 3 RX = 3 10 8

My bets 10 and 12

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lone speed · 04-15-2016, 04:14 PM

Quick analysis

I have it down to #10 Quiet Ruler 2nd pace line and #8 Chipit 2nd paceline ...

Quiet Ruler has already run over today's distance at a flat mile while #8 Chipit will face a slower 2nd fraction in today's match up ...these are my two choices..

Good skills

Latekick · 04-15-2016, 08:04 AM

Bill, glad you posted this race. Lots of value i think.
To me it is between the #2, #10, and #12. I will try to write up something later in the day here on my opinion in this race if i get some time. Thanks for posting.

Mitch44 · 04-15-2016, 04:14 PM

This is a real tough race with too many unknown factors in it. A race I would past normally and have little confidence in. The 9 & 11 should set it up for a closer as they both seem to be NTL. A mix in here of horses stepping up in class, dropping in class, shorting up and stretching out(even a 1/2 to 1F can impact the race) and changing surface.
My order came up 8-10-12 however I'm taking a shot with the 5 & 7 for a $2 win bet for the fun of it. I expect the M/L odds also to go down on the 8-10-12 so their odds won't justify the risk. Don't like the race at all. Ugly!! A race that may run like it should or anything could take it. The 5 trains and works out on dirt so he isn't a toss, an unknown.

The 5 & 7 can close into a fast pace and their odds are worth a $2 flier on each.

Good luck,
Mitch44

sureshotlink · 04-15-2016, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mitch44

This is a real tough race with too many unknown factors in it. A race I would past normally and have little confidence in. The 9 & 11 should set it up for a closer as they both seem to be NTL. A mix in here of horses stepping up in class, dropping in class, shorting up and stretching out(even a 1/2 to 1F can impact the race) and changing surface.
My order came up 8-10-12 however I'm taking a shot with the 5 & 7 for a $2 win bet for the fun of it. I expect the M/L odds also to go down on the 8-10-12 so their odds won't justify the risk. Don't like the race at all. Ugly!! A race that may run like it should or anything could take it. The 5 trains and works out on dirt so he isn't a toss, an unknown.

The 5 & 7 can close into a fast pace and their odds are worth a $2 flier on each.

Good luck,
Mitch44

I have it 8-11-12

Bill V. · 04-15-2016, 07:37 PM

Monmouth's Jersey Joe Bravo spoils the party

To say we missed this one is an understatement.

Recap
None of our selections even hit the board!

The 4 wins and pays $16.00

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Mark · 04-15-2016, 10:45 PM

These are not horses running for $5K at Mountaineer. These are extremely well bred horses, trained by some of the best horsemen in the country. Many of them are owned by their breeders. I just don't believe you can handicap this race like a cheap claiming race.
Look at the winner's pps from the bottom up: 4th lifetime start runs in a 3 year old Kentucky Derby Prep, Grade 2 finishes 3rd beaten 2.1 lengths. Goes to the sidelines for a year comes back and runs a evenish race and the very next start at KEE at today's level runs his lifetime best speed figure only to lose by a nose. Comes back in a Grade 3 at 9.5f at PIM finishes 4th against older horses. Not long and he's back on the sidelines for another 210 days. His first start back he runs an evenish race. Now what do you expect today? What does the pattern indicate? Again these are not sore, old claiming horses. Most of these horses have never seen a claiming race. Now look at the #6 horse: His first start off a 408 day layoff he is beaten 2.2 lengths in 21.9 - 44.8 - 109.8 - 115.3. He gains on the pace of the race from the 1st call home. 2nd race back they put him on the turf. This is a practice that has been used as long as I have been handicapping: dirt sprint -turf route, one for speed the other for stamina. He runs very creditably, moves in the 2nd fraction to within 1.6 lengths of the lead, gets closer by the stretch call before fading a little over a length. What do you expect? This is his first route race off a 408 day layoff. He just worked 4f in 47.6, 4th of 75 horses 5 days ago. You think his connections mean business? 3rd race off the layoff is a dynamite angle, even with cheap horses if there is some evidence that the horse is returning to form. Think about it! Why pay all those board and vet bills if the horse is broken beyond repair? I think you should expect the horse to run at least to his old top in the 3rd or 4th start back after a long layoff. He is happy, healthy and FIT!!
I have found that when I focus solely on the numbers, my brain numbs and I end up pissed off that I did it again. For me I have to evaluate the horses, one by one. Learn their story, what were they able to do and what evidence is there that they can do it again today if their best is good enough to win. When you only look at the last 3 or 4 lines you maybe not consciously but ultimately overlook valuable details and you also play right into the tote board most of the times. It's the horses whose lines are further back in their past performances that are going to pay very nice prices. Not that you do this willy nilly. You have to have reasons or excuses that justify that line selection. Two of them are Class and Speed.
Hope I haven't offended too many people but I am so passionate about this that it is upsetting to me when I see this kind of thing. Because it is right there in the pps. You just have to look and not get mesmerized by your program's numbers.

04-15-2016, 08:03 AM	#3
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Horses 8 9 10 11 12

04-15-2016, 08:06 AM	#4
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Readouts My look at the 8th from Keeneland OC 62.5 N3-X Step 1 Top 5 TPR Line 1 2 11 5 12 6 Step 2 Fulcrum horse No Fulcrum No one has run at 8 furlongs - Keeneland last line Step 3 Running styles Horse 1 Presser No line 30/1 ml Horse 2 S/P Line 1 - never routed only 2 lines Horse 3 Early Presser Line 1 Horse 4 Sus No line Horse 5 Presser No line Horse 6 EP Line 1 No line Horse 7 Sus Line 1 No line Horse 8 Press line 1 Horse 9 Early No line Horse 10 Press Line 2 excuse line 1 off track Horse 11 Early Line 1 Horse 12 E/P Line 1 Step 4 Who has the top EPR The 11 has the best EPR 99 Early Routing Can It go wire to wire = No Its LPRs are too low 81, 79 72 Step 5 rate the lines make your decisions The top TPR horses They are 10 11 12 Top 3 VDC = 10 12 3 Top 3 RX = 3 10 8 My bets 10 and 12

04-15-2016, 07:37 PM	#9
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	miss Monmouth's Jersey Joe Bravo spoils the party To say we missed this one is an understatement. Recap None of our selections even hit the board! The 4 wins and pays $16.00

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04-15-2016, 07:59 AM	#1
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Practice Race Keeneland Race 8 Keeneland race 8 In honor of Richie P , FTL and Jeff (shoeless) all who keep me going out here on the road its nice to talk horses to pass the time . Here we go ..... Notes All have 2 wins except horse 7 Can the 2 horse route and go 3/3 ? will a late energy turf horse win ? Conditions Horses Last edited by Bill V.; 04-15-2016 at 08:22 AM.

04-15-2016, 08:01 AM	#2
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Horses 4 5 6 7

04-15-2016, 04:14 PM	#5
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 695	Quick analysis I have it down to #10 Quiet Ruler 2nd pace line and #8 Chipit 2nd paceline ... Quiet Ruler has already run over today's distance at a flat mile while #8 Chipit will face a slower 2nd fraction in today's match up ...these are my two choices.. Good skills

04-15-2016, 08:04 AM	#6
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Bill, glad you posted this race. Lots of value i think. To me it is between the #2, #10, and #12. I will try to write up something later in the day here on my opinion in this race if i get some time. Thanks for posting.

04-15-2016, 04:14 PM	#7
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,845	This is a real tough race with too many unknown factors in it. A race I would past normally and have little confidence in. The 9 & 11 should set it up for a closer as they both seem to be NTL. A mix in here of horses stepping up in class, dropping in class, shorting up and stretching out(even a 1/2 to 1F can impact the race) and changing surface. My order came up 8-10-12 however I'm taking a shot with the 5 & 7 for a $2 win bet for the fun of it. I expect the M/L odds also to go down on the 8-10-12 so their odds won't justify the risk. Don't like the race at all. Ugly!! A race that may run like it should or anything could take it. The 5 trains and works out on dirt so he isn't a toss, an unknown. The 5 & 7 can close into a fast pace and their odds are worth a $2 flier on each. Good luck, Mitch44

04-15-2016, 10:45 PM	#10
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Hypnotized by the numbers These are not horses running for $5K at Mountaineer. These are extremely well bred horses, trained by some of the best horsemen in the country. Many of them are owned by their breeders. I just don't believe you can handicap this race like a cheap claiming race. Look at the winner's pps from the bottom up: 4th lifetime start runs in a 3 year old Kentucky Derby Prep, Grade 2 finishes 3rd beaten 2.1 lengths. Goes to the sidelines for a year comes back and runs a evenish race and the very next start at KEE at today's level runs his lifetime best speed figure only to lose by a nose. Comes back in a Grade 3 at 9.5f at PIM finishes 4th against older horses. Not long and he's back on the sidelines for another 210 days. His first start back he runs an evenish race. Now what do you expect today? What does the pattern indicate? Again these are not sore, old claiming horses. Most of these horses have never seen a claiming race. Now look at the #6 horse: His first start off a 408 day layoff he is beaten 2.2 lengths in 21.9 - 44.8 - 109.8 - 115.3. He gains on the pace of the race from the 1st call home. 2nd race back they put him on the turf. This is a practice that has been used as long as I have been handicapping: dirt sprint -turf route, one for speed the other for stamina. He runs very creditably, moves in the 2nd fraction to within 1.6 lengths of the lead, gets closer by the stretch call before fading a little over a length. What do you expect? This is his first route race off a 408 day layoff. He just worked 4f in 47.6, 4th of 75 horses 5 days ago. You think his connections mean business? 3rd race off the layoff is a dynamite angle, even with cheap horses if there is some evidence that the horse is returning to form. Think about it! Why pay all those board and vet bills if the horse is broken beyond repair? I think you should expect the horse to run at least to his old top in the 3rd or 4th start back after a long layoff. He is happy, healthy and FIT!! I have found that when I focus solely on the numbers, my brain numbs and I end up pissed off that I did it again. For me I have to evaluate the horses, one by one. Learn their story, what were they able to do and what evidence is there that they can do it again today if their best is good enough to win. When you only look at the last 3 or 4 lines you maybe not consciously but ultimately overlook valuable details and you also play right into the tote board most of the times. It's the horses whose lines are further back in their past performances that are going to pay very nice prices. Not that you do this willy nilly. You have to have reasons or excuses that justify that line selection. Two of them are Class and Speed. Hope I haven't offended too many people but I am so passionate about this that it is upsetting to me when I see this kind of thing. Because it is right there in the pps. You just have to look and not get mesmerized by your program's numbers.