Betting Examples Discussion

[Bill V.]

As often as I can I would like to post up some recent
Hit or Miss or what can be harmful betting stratagies, that i have seen posted
This is not to condem anyones success or failure
Just like in the follow up No names will be shown
Just what works and hopfully by showing bets
It will help us all LEARN TO WIN

[Bill V.]

This is an example of a very popular bet here in the contest
The $25 W/P bet on 2 horses

In a recent posting using this bet the poster won and got $190
or a $90 profit


His bets were a horse with off odds of 9/2 and lets go with the ML of 10/1

Here are 4 looks at his bet using different methods



AAA is the actual bet and return on his bets
The 5 horse won and paid $11.00 and $4.80
The favorite @ 6/5 placed and paid $3.30
BBB is what his return would have been on a 50/50 Win only bet
CCC is what his return would have been on a 60/40 win bet
DDD is what his return would have been on a Sartin guidline bet
of a back up place bet on a high odds horse
EEE This again using a back up place bet with slightly higher than the win bet place bet

The total return for these bets is to the far right

[pktruckdriver]

Very well done Bill, but I just get from this , is that if you bet WIN only, yu will get much much more, for your buck. The other option is playing the place horse, but should be played only when the odds are high enough to make the place bet a nice payoff, and not be used on a 6/5 horse, is this what you are saying?

I make my bets and then go , most of the time, and come back and see how I did, and with odds at 3-1 , I hope they go up, but sometimes they go down, mostly go down, as I try to put the horse who has the best chance of winning, which we know could be a no paying horse, yet my reasoning, for my 25 w/p, was two things, basically....

1 Would be able to hit with 2 horses in 1 play.

2. If my higher odds horse comes 2nd then I stand a good chance of
breaking even on my wager, if possible. Or that was the thought, originally

Maybe next month I can try 2 50.00 win wagers, as quite a few people suggested, as this does make the handicapping a little bit tougher and then the hit rate would be more in tune to how Doc meant a 20 race cycle to be.


Patrick

[gandalf380]

Nicely done, Bill. I think CCC is the way to go if one is to follow Sartin guidelines. One thing to keep in mind is that Howard was not always interested in maximum profit. By that I mean he was very aware of the psychological impact of losing and was the reason he recommended betting two horses to win. One of the reasons for betting the AAA method in this contest is to maximize the number of winning bets and thusly maximize the winning percentage.

[Bill V.]

I understand about having little time and having to post races and then move on
with your schedule. There was a very good wagercaper/ client from England
He was featured often in the follow ups name Tim Brothers
He had no other choice ( back then ) then to bet off the morning line
I doubt that would work in todays internet and AWD late money plungers world.
Your hands are tied but I think all thing considered you do very well

Bill

[Bill V.]

Hello gandalph

CCC is a very good method. I feel that people who use the CCC method
thend to be very good handicappers who are very confident in there desisions.
They also want to maximize thier profits, These types and 1 horse betters are probably similar in ability.
CCC types still have a safety, that back up plan

As far as betting differently than you do in your daily wagering
That a individules decision . My felling is why would you think a $200 prize trumps
how you bet everyday Don't you want to win all the time ?

GS
Bill

[pktruckdriver]

Permission Granted Ted, and many thanks for it too.

Patrick

[rmath]

Ted, Yes I thought about playing more races, but as soon as I play one more horse my bankroll would be reduced by 792.50, the net proceeds from my first winner. I felt that this would put me in serious hole and I felt that it would be nearly impossible to overcome the deficit.
Hope you see my dilema, and any suggestions would be appreciated.
rmath

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by rmath

Ted, Yes I thought about playing more races, but as soon as I play one more horse my bankroll would be reduced by 792.50, the net proceeds from my first winner. I felt that this would put me in serious hole and I felt that it would be nearly impossible to overcome the deficit.
Hope you see my dilema, and any suggestions would be appreciated.
rmath

I do see your dilemma! How about conducting this 'thought experiment': pretend that you are beginning August's contest today and have 15 days to bet another 20 races. I'm sure you would never consider 'I should not play in the August contest because I'll never hit another $23.80 Win mutuel like I did the first play in July' Rather, consider that the slate is 'clean' and start again.

That's the worst case. The better case is that you go forward and actually hit several double digit mutuels, perhaps in less than another 20 races. Several people have done precisely that and naturally so can you, with your degree of skill. Look at Gfnut the final day of the June Contest, who hit mutuels of $17.20, $22.60 and $19.60 with Win bets on each - $1195 profits in one day - at Hollywood. Look at Barb Craven yesterday at WO with a $19.40 Win mutuel, though alas only a $5.70 Place mutuel ). These good hits do happen, as can a string of simply random distribution of racing outcomes which allocates a bunch of Losses in a row your way. For both the foregoing reasons, playing onward makes great sense - just like it would in real life: after a bad day, we regroup and move forward with confidence in our long term ability - and things even out as your long term records show.

Consider another 'thought experiment' at the same time as the one above: pretend that your 1 month RDSS subscription prize is not in jeopardy - pretend it has been won and cannot be lost regardless of what happens over the rest of July. With the risk of losing that removed, how does this change your confidence level?

My only other suggestion going forward is - pay no attention to betting simply to obtain a good hit rate, i.e. making small Place bets which pay little or even lose money over all. Consider restricting Place betting to top contenders going off at odds greater than 7-1, and THEN making any Place bet the same size or greater than your Win bet on that horse.

The Contest is not about Place betting at all, but we have to keep the betting structures simple enough to score easily and not result in runaway winners from boxcar exotic hits. I believe that simple Win and Place betting (where prudent) form the foundation of all other good betting practices, and this is what I want to help teach people - with your assistance!

Best of luck and skill going forward, my friend.

yours,

Ted

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Consider restricting Place betting to top contenders going off at odds greater than 7-1, and THEN making any Place bet the same size or greater than your Win bet on that horse.

Ted

As you can see above, Ted suggested betting “place” on horses going off at odds of 7/1 or greater, so that is where I started.

I took 2 consecutive years and counted how many horses went off at odds of 7/1 or greater. There were 369,123.
Then I counted how many of those horses won. That number was 17,005.
Then I counted how many of those horses “placed”, but DID NOT WIN. There were 26,277.
Then I calculated the “place price” for those horses that either won or placed. It came to $11.76
Then I calculated the “win price” for those horses that won. It came to $31.23.

Ok, so what does all this mean?

Of the total number of horses that went off at odds of 7/1 or higher, 7.12% of those horses ran 2nd.

Of the total number of horses that went off at odds of 7/1 or higher, 4.61% of those horses WON.

If you bet $2 “to place” on every horse that went off at odds of 7/1 or higher, you would have LOST $429,128.

If you bet $2 “to WIN” on every horse that went off at odds of 7/1 or higher, you would have LOST $207,179.

As you can see, betting to place returns a "hit rate" of 7.12 %
Betting to win returns a "hit rate" of 4.61%.....not a big difference. Why?

Because horses going off at these odds do not run “in the money” at a high rate. In most cases they either win or run out of the money. There are a few, as you can see, that do run 2nd without winning, but you have to ask yourself, "is it worth it?”

Where the difference really shows up is in the overall return.
Betting these horses "to place" returns a loss of $429,179
Betting the same horses "to win" returns a loss of $207,129….less than half the loss of just betting to place.

When it comes to betting win,place or show, there is no better bet than "WIN". Your "hit rate" may not be as high, but the "return rate" more than makes up for it!

Personally, I don't bet a horse unless it goes off at odds of 4/1 or higher and like everyone else, I see my share of horses that run 2nd, however, being aware of what I have explained here, I ONLY BET TO WIN.

I hope and trust that this will be of value to all those who take the time to read it.