TPR Race 5 Belmont

[Bill V.]

Hello Jeff and Pace and Cap

By request here is a race analysis using TPR/Phase 1

The race is race 5 from Belmont

Hello,
This is not a great race to demo. It is for 3-year-olds going 7 furlongs on the turf

I singled the 6 in my pick 4

But let's see who has a chance for some win bets.

The 6 has a six-point advantage in TPR. The fulcrum horse is the #2 with a moderate 84 EPR
The 5 has the top EPR with a 90.3
The next best EPR is horse 8 with an 87

So at the second call, it should be 6, 5, and 8

Because the 8 shows the worst of these 3 and runs morse early energy excursion and his VDC is the 4th rank VDC
I will eliminate the 8

So the epr says 6 and 5
Now, who can catch them?
The top LPR is horse 6 he has a 7 point advantage over the 2 I have already eliminated the 8
So now its between the 5,2, and 3
The 3 is 5/2 and has a paceline from a mile turf race But his VDC and TPR has him to for below the 5 and 6
The 2 Has a paceline that is from the same distance and surface as today's race He is close but his 4.7 VDC and 15/1
morning line are worth noting.

Since I have the 6 single in my pick 4

I will go with 5 and 2 for backup win bets