Energy & Match-Up - Pace and Cap

forecast · 11-13-2006, 08:50 PM

Hi Jeff,

Doc stated that, in a sprint, a horse needs to make up twice as much energy in the third fraction as he is behind in the first fraction. In routes it is almost three times as much. In Houndog's example race, Gold was the pacesetter. Conji had a first fraction deficit of .76, Kell had a first fraction deficit of .89, and Rog3 had a first fraction deficit of 1.53. None of these horses had a third fraction advantage over Gold of even 1-to-1 (F1 deficit to F3 advantage). If Gold runs his race, and pacelines/contenders are correct, Gold should win easily. The trick to this "precision" analysis is in the match-up, where true contenders and "correct" pacelines are selected. Actually, I find that when I do the match-up particularly well, the contenders and pacelines tend to select themselves. These are the races to really "pounce" on, from a betting standpoint.

I truly hope this helps. If I can help in any way, please let me know.

Forecast

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11-13-2006, 08:50 PM	#12
forecast AlwNW3X Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 44	Hi Jeff, Doc stated that, in a sprint, a horse needs to make up twice as much energy in the third fraction as he is behind in the first fraction. In routes it is almost three times as much. In Houndog's example race, Gold was the pacesetter. Conji had a first fraction deficit of .76, Kell had a first fraction deficit of .89, and Rog3 had a first fraction deficit of 1.53. None of these horses had a third fraction advantage over Gold of even 1-to-1 (F1 deficit to F3 advantage). If Gold runs his race, and pacelines/contenders are correct, Gold should win easily. The trick to this "precision" analysis is in the match-up, where true contenders and "correct" pacelines are selected. Actually, I find that when I do the match-up particularly well, the contenders and pacelines tend to select themselves. These are the races to really "pounce" on, from a betting standpoint. I truly hope this helps. If I can help in any way, please let me know. Forecast