Race with new distance for all? PL selection

[Hanger]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

I think the technical term for this kind of race is 'crap-shoot'. But, also where prices can be had from time to time. Choose your chaos tolerance.

My rule is: demote from Win in a turf race anyone who has not previously run (well) in a Turf race. I win more than I lose by applying this guidance. Thus - there's only 1 horse: the #4 (the rule magically knows about DQs ).

The default 'Best of Last 3' Paceline Strategy works as well as any, IMO. FWIW, take a look at the Supplementary Factors on the Rx screen, including the PoR Supplementals. Which of the underneath horses rates best? (the #7 Place horse).

The other part of the crap-shoot is: who knows how these horses will stretch out (another 3 furlongs).

Your Exacta part-wheel seems the perfect bet that the favourites will not finish 1-2, given the action on those 2 and the FTS. $6 bet returns $32, or 5-1 (probably better if you dutch it for an equal payoff). Is 5-1 enough payoff with so many unknowns?

I'd rather get more, and would pass.

Attachment 49889

Ted

Sorry I was away today and unable to get on the forums for most of the day. I would think that 5-1 given the unknowns is below the acceptable risk/reward ratio for most gamblers that seek higher value in chaos races.

I do like the demote anyone who has not ran well in Turf before- with unknowns one is required to know a little pedigree or see turf works etc....thank you