Kentucky Oaks Day

[Drew42e]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Hi Drew, welcome to the neighbourhood!

I try not to be dogmatic about 2 horse wagering I try to make money, not pick horses. I would have liked to single one of the Top 2 horses in the 6th race, but I could not separate them except on Odds. Thus, the hedge strategy (as odds dropped on the #2, I would have had to pay a bit of 'insurance' if the #2 had won).

But the hedge worked anyway: consider $50 bet on BOTH #1 and #2 (the 'equal units' referred to). $100 bet, $165 returned on the #1, or - $90 returned ($3.80) if the #2 won, or an insurance cost of $10 or 10%. It depends on a fairly good hit rate to take combo wagers of that low odds.

I'm just trying to see how effective a semi-automated method is. If you are looking in on things to learn more about the Sartin Methodology in action, there are a WHOLE lot more ways of approaching analysis and wagering than presented here. Consider this thread as an experiment, if you will. Hopefully lots of other analysis today elsewhere, or for tomorrow.

Good luck!

Ted

Thanks Ted that makes sense and I do agree that following a betting methodology is probably more profitable then trying to get cute in certain circumstances - a practice I am all too familiar with. Yes, I do view as an experiment and of course will review as many of the old threads on Sartin, the Hat, et al.

My own capping (no RDSS yet mind you) using Brisnet I saw no clear pace setter so likely a slightly slower pace and looking at similar races I felt the #2 was clear standout with #5 likely underneath. I did not like the #1 at all with my expected race set up, I felt she needed more pace to run into. While I think I projected the appropriate pace set up (:24/:48/1:12 isn't fast for these), clearly tossing the 1 was wrong , but at least I didn't actually bet it given the odds I didn't see much value.

[Ted Craven]

Gone for an hour. Back at it ...

2 more races:

[Ted Craven]

I think #1 Cat Burgler dominates the pace, slows down just a little and holds on.

Win on #1 and #5. Exacta 1-5 / 1-5-4-3

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

I think #1 Cat Burgler dominates the pace, slows down just a little and holds on.

Not today.

[Drew42e]

Ted he had it all his own way too, I saw it just the same on top. Especially with Stevens aboard, but he just didn't kick on.

[raceman5]

Up here at Derby Lane. My VDC readouts had it 4-9. very nice payoff and exacta. I thought the race would go early and had it between 1-9

Bob

[Latekick]

Originally Posted by raceman5

Up here at Derby Lane. My VDC readouts had it 4-9. very nice payoff and exacta. I thought the race would go early and had it between 1-9

Bob

Same here, nice hit! Had the 9 in my tournament as well, jumped me up to second.

[raceman5]

Latekick, way to go. when u play tournaments i know u can bet only 1 horse. What do you do look at your top 3 and bet the one with the highest odds?

bob

[raceman5]

Ted did not mean to interrupt.

Bob

[Ted Craven]

Race 10 - no opinion.