Del Mar - Sunday -8/14 - Race 6

[Rverge]

Originally Posted by Rverge

i will consider the it worked 2 times within 21 days off

the 5 has 9/20 starts wins in this race of nw1

[Rverge]

#5 10 wins 21 starts

[RichieP]

Here is the result chart and thanx to all who looked in!

The 5 wired them holding off the 7, looks like Mark has the exacta in his box for $35.60 if he pulled the trigger.

The reason I put the race up was the #7. When he was one of the 2 runners who I projected the on the lead pace from (also fighting at the 1c) and then saw line 6 running 5-4-2-2 positioning and line 8 running 4-5-1-1 positioning against similar paces that was my horse.

Didnt think he could lose, he did!

off to work, have a great day everyone.
Richie

[Mark]

These were my final contenders. I use RDSS a little differently. I will use the Win Contender's section for E and EP. The Secondary or ITM Contender section for P and SP and the Non-Contender section for S horses when I initially go through the horses. It helps me to keep in mind where these horses want to be. As I start eliminating horses I will drop those into Non-Contender and elevate any S horse to ITM that seems appropriate. In the final screen which I posted before the race these were my final contenders grouped together as I felt the race would run OTE:

I kept the #8 because he had been gelded since his last start and felt that he may run a little better without his nuts banging the inside of his thighs. Like Richie I saw the #5 and the #7 had run well from slightly off the pace even though could go to the lead. However, with the sprinters stretching out I didn't think they would attempt the lead. Well, I was wrong.
Richie published a spot play in the Hat Check Blog long ago called 3 Matching Earlies. I didn't know whether the two Es and EP were matching but I thought one would get the lead and the other two would fight him for it. In this spot play and always in the Match Up you have to account for these horses at the 1st Call. There was an EP and 2 Es so were should look for the winner in our final contenders that could run from the 4th position. Look at my final contenders above. Who would be running from the 4th position at the 1st Call? It is true that the #7 had a couple of race where he won from the 4th position, but when you use those lines on the Segment screen they come up slow and from the horse's pps he has really improved in his last few races so I kept him in off his gate to wire win.

Now the #5 took the lead and took them all the way around winning by a half length over the #7 but we have to handicap from the pps. The line I used showed the horse at the 4th position at the 1st Call but he also made two distinct moves in that race and it was fast.
Unfortunately, I didn't notice this until after the race. I have a tendency to lock in on a horse and miss stuff as a result.
I lost my win and place bets but I got a little back on the exacta. However, more encouraging is that my paceline selection and contender recognition is improving. It didn't put money in my pocket but I had the trifecta in my top 4 selections. That builds confidence!

[Mark]

Here is the screen I was referring to: