Configure Settings and Happy New Year to all.

[rmath]

Bill are the EPR LPR and Tpr rankings in your SA profile all taken from the last pace line OR do they come from the lines you choose after you get your contenders?
Thanks
Rmath

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by rmath

Bill are the EPR LPR and Tpr rankings in your SA profile all taken from the last pace line OR do they come from the lines you choose after you get your contenders?
Thanks
Rmath

Hey first off me and my family thank you for your prayers and kindness
in the tough loss of mom.<3


Dick, What I do is, I take the numbers for my Model from the paceline I used.
For the profile I use the result charts . remember the Profile is what the track is doing, the Model is based on my handicapping records .

Here is an example of how I enter horses onto my profile and model.

Lets look at race 6 from Parx yesterday ( a race I won )
and I happen to be looking at when I saw your post,

First here is the winner, #3 Red Rocket . I used the last line, or in the spirit of this thread
I had auto selected the last line for every horse, and for this horse I stayed with the last line.



For my Parx profile - I would first check the results chart
I would enter lots of stuff but most important is the date,surface, class, sex age and track condition.
Now using the chart, I enter the size of the field, The Position at the EPR or second call and the beaten lengths at the EPR second call.

So I would enter for this race for the winner
Field 10 Pos2, 2 BL 2 1.0



Now for the model , The model is to show me how I am doing in my handicapping using Phase 1

so here I look at my TPR screen.



I enter the RANKING of the winner in EPR, LPR and TPR
from the pace line I used.
Red Rocket had a 88.5 EPR , 87.9 LPR and 176.4 TPR (I also record the e/l and %Med )

The 88.4 was the 4th best ranked the 87.9 LPR was 3rd best and the 176.4 TPR was the 5th best. So on my model I would show the winner of this race as E4 L 3 T 5

I take the EPR LPR and TPR as well as the Early Late diff and % Med and RS
from the pace line I used

Now here is an interesting thing. Lets say in a few weeks Red Rocket
is in another 6.5 distance race at Parx on a fast track, I then will enter the actual Phase 1 numbers RDSS adjusted the race from yesterday but I will bold face the numbers, Surprisingly Since RDSS has already adjusted the paceline I used , which was 5.5 furlongs to today's distanceof 6.5, The actual numbers I will eventually see, are very often very close to the paceline numbers, This is why i'm confident using the pace line numbers
on a daily basis. It is easy and eventually i get a real clear idea of the track i'm workings profile based on the pace line info.

[rmath]

Thanks Bill ,
I appreciate your taking the time to explain your process.
Rmath

[Bill V.]

Here is an example

Tribal won a race on June 16th at SA on the turf
The race was the same distance and surface as what he would run on
today 1/8/17 (it was scratched ) but anyway ,

Looking at the win line from 6/16 race 4 Line 5 Tibal ran a
EPR 87 LPR 91.5 and TPR 178.5 in a winning race, so I don't have to be concerned with beaten lengths adjustments .
So for my records Profile
I would add these figures, I would over ride the pace line numbers
but I would bold face them, which tells me they are the actual numbers the horse ran,
I only do this when the race is from the exact distance /surface and track



The reason this method works for me is, look how consistent tribal runs its top TPR ratings = 178 Also look just about always right around 87 EPR. The LPR and TPR vary but overall the win line race 5 is very much what this horse's best ability is. And gives me a good map as to what wins at SA

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Lt1

I believe that what happens when a track is sly and then proceeds to dry out going to mdy and then good is different at each track. I don't believe that one can make a blanket statement on what running style will prevail. In my humble opinion one must know their tracks and maintain records.
Tim G

Sure as it drys it is constantly in flux and one has to go by a race to race basis, However THIS IDEA that there is some sort of selective tiredness (later horses coming on over the wet) and the pace horses WILL TIRED somehow more that the later ones (which is just not true as a blanket statement)

If the rest of the day is dull overcast in an NORTHERN climate in February one cannot compare that to a sunny day in a SOUTHERN climate. NO evaporation in the former.