Do you trust this giraffe?

[Jeebs]

Examine the PPs of Hy Quality Prince (#5) in today's 2nd at Gulfstream:



Line 1 is a sustained pressing + line loss by a half length going the one-turn mile distance. Both the PoR and PoH TE are very fast for this class! However, how does it stack up with itself on TPR? Easily a new high.

Based on my pacelines and contenders remaining, #5 is not only the dominant EPR runner, but also the dominant TPR runner:



Now, sit back for the sobering news. #5 is 3/39 lifetime and 0/9 sprinting on dirt. Shaking the confidence even more is that within its last 10 PP's, half of those races are at today's distance, and only one of those I would borderline consider as at least a plus/zero race - all within the past 101 days - this horse is running on average, every 10 days!

At age 6, I seriously doubt this horse is taking a great leap forward. The horse's history suggests that it can't put together two big efforts in a row. Its previous top on TPR (178.5) was followed by a drop off that didn't reverse itself until the end of January, when it showed a more positive pattern before topping off at 176.5 at 1 1/16m and dropping off again.

To me, this is the kind of horse where if you take its last race at face value - despite the preponderance of evidence suggesting that it can't win at today's distance - you will lose money on this type of horse often.

What do you all think?