Dd 2-02 - Pace and Cap

darmar · 02-02-2021, 12:23 PM

These picks were done before the scratches came out. I will UPDATE them asap
R1 - 2-5-4-7
R2 - 5-1-7-4
R3 - 5-7-2-9 LS 4
R4 - -6-3-8-5
R5 - 8-6-5-7
R6 - 2-3-5-1 Chaos race 7 possible winners???
R7 - 5-7-3-4
R8 - 4-5-2-7
R9 - 4-3-5-12
Ok that's what I have so far.
Darryl

So Cal Al · 02-02-2021, 01:15 PM

Just a note about race 2. It is a good example of RDSS treating a 71/2 race as a sprint race in the automatic pace selections, even though it is a 1/2 furlong less than a 2 turn route race. Beware!

57viking · 02-02-2021, 02:42 PM

I find paceline selection at DED is difficult , since many of the races ( all except 5f) are 2 turn races. Do you use an equivalent distance or use a 2 turn race from another track even though it might be 8f for a 6.5f race. Thoughts?

Ted Craven · 02-02-2021, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by So Cal Al

Just a note about race 2. It is a good example of RDSS treating a 71/2 race as a sprint race in the automatic pace selections, even though it is a 1/2 furlong less than a 2 turn route race. Beware!

Yes, but in this case, even if you chose to manually select 8f lines where you could, instead of the sprint lines chosen automatically (per image), does it really make any difference? Where paceline selection comes into play on the Rx line(s) - the V/DC component, it often will not budge the ranking by more than 1 position. Then use Odds or other corollaries to choose 2 horses for Win, or a 3-horse Exacta or part-wheel.

How much better do you need it to get, from a handicapping tool? Further, re the top ranked Rx horse #5: why is this horse the worst in PW% (maybe it was better pre-closing)? I don't know how many times I have used this weak support in pool-interrelationship to downgrade an otherwise top-ranked horse.

Name: DED2.jpg
Views: 394
Size: 91.0 KB

Ted

Lt1 · 02-02-2021, 02:57 PM

Nice input Al I managed to hit the race.
Feb 2 2

59 PM Complete Delta Downs 2 Win/Place $5.00 6-7 $20.00 $55.50 $35.50
Type/Status
Wager
Transaction ID
1d20b-b334f
Feb 2 2:17:24 PM Complete Delta Downs 2 Exacta Box $2.00 5,6,7 $12.00 $44.20 $32.20
Type/Status
Tim

Lt1 · 02-02-2021, 03:08 PM

These were the lines I used
#1 line 10. line 4 was a lifetime best by an older horse[I don't use these]
#4 line 4 line 1 rt another lifetime best scenario
#5 line 3
#6 line 1 line 2 the mdn race @dist was on a sealed trk and highest spd rating by far run by the horse[bris pps]
#7 line 2
Tim

Lt1 · 02-02-2021, 03:12 PM

Forgot to add that 6 was the counter energy horse with the best 3rd fraction and a win @ the exact dist over the track.
Tim

So Cal Al · 02-02-2021, 03:34 PM

My take......unless one has some special information, avoid shorter tracks like DED

Mitch44 · 02-02-2021, 03:43 PM

Very nice call LT1, congrats.

Mitch44

So Cal Al · 02-02-2021, 03:44 PM

Ted: I came up with the same top contenders as you (and Tim) but Darryl may have missed. That said, RDSS is fantastic, but as an old dog, I always check the selections against my own ones based on the Doc's selection rules

02-02-2021, 12:23 PM	#1
darmar Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Maple Ridge, B.C. Canada Posts: 3,626	Dd 2-02 These picks were done before the scratches came out. I will UPDATE them asap R1 - 2-5-4-7 R2 - 5-1-7-4 R3 - 5-7-2-9 LS 4 R4 - -6-3-8-5 R5 - 8-6-5-7 R6 - 2-3-5-1 Chaos race 7 possible winners??? R7 - 5-7-3-4 R8 - 4-5-2-7 R9 - 4-3-5-12 Ok that's what I have so far. Darryl

02-02-2021, 01:15 PM	#2
So Cal Al So Cal Al Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: San Diego/ La Quinta Posts: 214	Just a note about race 2. It is a good example of RDSS treating a 71/2 race as a sprint race in the automatic pace selections, even though it is a 1/2 furlong less than a 2 turn route race. Beware!

02-02-2021, 02:42 PM	#3
57viking Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2020 Location: Vermont Posts: 167	I find paceline selection at DED is difficult , since many of the races ( all except 5f) are 2 turn races. Do you use an equivalent distance or use a 2 turn race from another track even though it might be 8f for a 6.5f race. Thoughts?

02-02-2021, 02:57 PM	#5
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,451	Nice input Al I managed to hit the race. Feb 2 259 PM Complete Delta Downs 2 Win/Place $5.00 6-7 $20.00 $55.50 $35.50 Type/Status Wager Transaction ID 1d20b-b334f Feb 2 2:17:24 PM Complete Delta Downs 2 Exacta Box $2.00 5,6,7 $12.00 $44.20 $32.20 Type/Status Tim __________________ Trust but verify

02-02-2021, 03:08 PM	#6
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,451	These were the lines I used #1 line 10. line 4 was a lifetime best by an older horse[I don't use these] #4 line 4 line 1 rt another lifetime best scenario #5 line 3 #6 line 1 line 2 the mdn race @dist was on a sealed trk and highest spd rating by far run by the horse[bris pps] #7 line 2 Tim __________________ Trust but verify

02-02-2021, 03:12 PM	#7
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,451	Forgot to add that 6 was the counter energy horse with the best 3rd fraction and a win @ the exact dist over the track. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

02-02-2021, 03:34 PM	#8
So Cal Al So Cal Al Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: San Diego/ La Quinta Posts: 214	My take......unless one has some special information, avoid shorter tracks like DED

02-02-2021, 03:43 PM	#9
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,871	Very nice call LT1, congrats. Mitch44

02-02-2021, 03:44 PM	#10
So Cal Al So Cal Al Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: San Diego/ La Quinta Posts: 214	Ted: I came up with the same top contenders as you (and Tim) but Darryl may have missed. That said, RDSS is fantastic, but as an old dog, I always check the selections against my own ones based on the Doc's selection rules