AW to dirt/dirt to AW - Pace and Cap

derrick24948 · 05-07-2021, 12:09 PM

Relative novice horseplayer new to the community here. I've only seriously been looking at races for about a year. I'm sure this has likely been discussed in depth at some point in the past, but what are folks thoughts on horses moving from AW to dirt and vice versa? If the horse has been running on AW in most or all of its recent races, will you consider those pacelines when assessing its chances on dirt today? Do you not consider the AW form representative at all? Something in between?

This seems to be a particular issue at the start of some meets. For example, right now with Belterra starting there are many horses coming from TP and Mvr. The hodgepodge mix of AW and dirt pace lines are hard to make sense of. I feel like you hear/read a lot more of comparison between AW and turf, particularly for routes, but I'm still pretty jammed up when it comes to comparing dirt and AW.

I used the function to search the site and read a few older posts, but I didn't really see the question answered directly. I know it's a huge topic and one difficult to answer with more than the classic, "It depends," but I appreciate any help!

Mitch44 · 05-07-2021, 12:25 PM

I would never use a All Weather line for a dirt race unless that's all the horse had were All Weather lines, than you have to use what you have if you make the horses a contender.

All Weather lines can be used for turf races but my priority would be turf lines first and if no turf lines than All Weather, if nor turf or All Weather than I would use an off track line such as sloppy. Dirt would be absolutely last and then only if that's all it had.

Other clues to surface changes for horses lacking races for today's surface are workouts and the trainers intention with such moves.

Mitch44

Lt1 · 05-07-2021, 12:56 PM

Outside of what Mitch stated above check the lifetime box to see if the horse has ever competed on the dirt. If not, and the horse is a true contender, you have no other choice. I have found[based on my records for the track I play] that horses that have only competed on AW or Turf usually run too late to win at those tracks most times. The best course of action, if there is another unknown factor with another horse, would be to pass the race.
Tim

derrick24948 · 05-07-2021, 08:27 PM

Thanks for the input, guys. I appreciate it. That makes sense and is in line with what I was thinking. One follow-up question: how would you handle a contender who has dirt races in the past, but they were over 6 months or over a year ago and has been running on AW since? Would you use the way back dirt lines, or the more recent AW lines?

Lt1 · 05-07-2021, 08:46 PM

It depends on the current condition of the horse and the class of the race. If it looks ok on form and todays' race class is ok I would most likely go back to a dirt race. If off form or wrong class I would stay current. It really is a feel thing for me based on my experience .
Tim

Mitch44 · 05-08-2021, 09:48 AM

"One follow-up question: how would you handle a contender who has dirt races in the past, but they were over 6 months or over a year ago and has been running on AW since? Would you use the way back dirt lines, or the more recent AW lines?"

This is a hard one to answer without seeing the actual PP's of the horse in question. In all likelihood I would go back to a dirt line.. A horse can't be expected to run well if not properly placed as to distance and surface.

I would try to access if the horse is the same through workouts, some recent performance and where class wise its being placed as to where it was successful in the past.
No one answer fits all with these situations. And of course risk and reward would play into my decision. I'm not going to take a low payoff for a risky prop position.

These situations are also smoothed out by applying Sartin recommendations of betting two horses to win and not just a single horse. This and the price your getting are major concerns in the decision process.

Mitch44

derrick24948 · 05-11-2021, 11:50 AM

Thanks for the further feedback. I didn't have any specific examples in mind, just a scenario that's come up for me several times recently. Everything you guys said makes complete sense, very logical.

Mitch, your note about betting 2 horses per race is, of course, a solid one. I'm definitely converted to that one. When looking back at my records, a lower roi overall, but the hit rate makes up for it psychologically.

Tim, "on form" makes sense as the key. Obviously the problem is, how to tell if the horse is on form if he/she has been on the wrong surface. I get looking for decent workouts (sometimes it's even tough to tell what is/is not a good workout), but outside of that, it feels tough to me. I'm definitely still learning on that one.

05-07-2021, 12:09 PM	#1
derrick24948 AlwNW1X Join Date: May 2021 Posts: 15	AW to dirt/dirt to AW Relative novice horseplayer new to the community here. I've only seriously been looking at races for about a year. I'm sure this has likely been discussed in depth at some point in the past, but what are folks thoughts on horses moving from AW to dirt and vice versa? If the horse has been running on AW in most or all of its recent races, will you consider those pacelines when assessing its chances on dirt today? Do you not consider the AW form representative at all? Something in between? This seems to be a particular issue at the start of some meets. For example, right now with Belterra starting there are many horses coming from TP and Mvr. The hodgepodge mix of AW and dirt pace lines are hard to make sense of. I feel like you hear/read a lot more of comparison between AW and turf, particularly for routes, but I'm still pretty jammed up when it comes to comparing dirt and AW. I used the function to search the site and read a few older posts, but I didn't really see the question answered directly. I know it's a huge topic and one difficult to answer with more than the classic, "It depends," but I appreciate any help!

05-07-2021, 12:56 PM	#3
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,514	Outside of what Mitch stated above check the lifetime box to see if the horse has ever competed on the dirt. If not, and the horse is a true contender, you have no other choice. I have found[based on my records for the track I play] that horses that have only competed on AW or Turf usually run too late to win at those tracks most times. The best course of action, if there is another unknown factor with another horse, would be to pass the race. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

05-07-2021, 08:46 PM	#5
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,514	It depends on the current condition of the horse and the class of the race. If it looks ok on form and todays' race class is ok I would most likely go back to a dirt race. If off form or wrong class I would stay current. It really is a feel thing for me based on my experience . Tim __________________ Trust but verify

05-07-2021, 12:25 PM	#2
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	I would never use a All Weather line for a dirt race unless that's all the horse had were All Weather lines, than you have to use what you have if you make the horses a contender. All Weather lines can be used for turf races but my priority would be turf lines first and if no turf lines than All Weather, if nor turf or All Weather than I would use an off track line such as sloppy. Dirt would be absolutely last and then only if that's all it had. Other clues to surface changes for horses lacking races for today's surface are workouts and the trainers intention with such moves. Mitch44

05-07-2021, 08:27 PM	#4
derrick24948 AlwNW1X Join Date: May 2021 Posts: 15	Thanks for the input, guys. I appreciate it. That makes sense and is in line with what I was thinking. One follow-up question: how would you handle a contender who has dirt races in the past, but they were over 6 months or over a year ago and has been running on AW since? Would you use the way back dirt lines, or the more recent AW lines?

05-08-2021, 09:48 AM	#6
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	"One follow-up question: how would you handle a contender who has dirt races in the past, but they were over 6 months or over a year ago and has been running on AW since? Would you use the way back dirt lines, or the more recent AW lines?" This is a hard one to answer without seeing the actual PP's of the horse in question. In all likelihood I would go back to a dirt line.. A horse can't be expected to run well if not properly placed as to distance and surface. I would try to access if the horse is the same through workouts, some recent performance and where class wise its being placed as to where it was successful in the past. No one answer fits all with these situations. And of course risk and reward would play into my decision. I'm not going to take a low payoff for a risky prop position. These situations are also smoothed out by applying Sartin recommendations of betting two horses to win and not just a single horse. This and the price your getting are major concerns in the decision process. Mitch44

05-11-2021, 11:50 AM	#7
derrick24948 AlwNW1X Join Date: May 2021 Posts: 15	Thanks for the further feedback. I didn't have any specific examples in mind, just a scenario that's come up for me several times recently. Everything you guys said makes complete sense, very logical. Mitch, your note about betting 2 horses per race is, of course, a solid one. I'm definitely converted to that one. When looking back at my records, a lower roi overall, but the hit rate makes up for it psychologically. Tim, "on form" makes sense as the key. Obviously the problem is, how to tell if the horse is on form if he/she has been on the wrong surface. I get looking for decent workouts (sometimes it's even tough to tell what is/is not a good workout), but outside of that, it feels tough to me. I'm definitely still learning on that one.